William P. Hanage

Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings

Swine Flu Benchmark The World Health Organization (WHO) announced on 29 April 2009, a level-5 pandemic alert for a strain of H1N1 influenza originating in pigs in Mexico and transmitting from human to human in several countries. Fraser et al. (p. 1557, published online 11 May; see the cover) amassed a team of experts in Mexico and WHO to make an initial assessment of the outbreak with a view to guiding future policy. The outbreak appears to have originated in mid-February in the village of La Gloria, Veracruz, where over half the population suffered acute respiratory illness, affecting more than 61% of children under 15 years old in the community. The basic reproduction number (the number of people infected per patient) is in the range of 1.5—similar or less than that of the pandemics of 1918, 1957, and 1968. There remain significant uncertainties about the severity of this outbreak, which makes it difficult to compare the economic and societal costs of intervention with lives saved and the risks of generating antiviral resistance. An international collaborative effort has analyzed the initial dynamics of the swine flu outbreak. A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has spread rapidly across the globe. Judging its pandemic potential is difficult with limited data, but nevertheless essential to inform appropriate health responses. By analyzing the outbreak in Mexico, early data on international spread, and viral genetic diversity, we make an early assessment of transmissibility and severity. Our estimates suggest that 23,000 (range 6000 to 32,000) individuals had been infected in Mexico by late April, giving an estimated case fatality ratio (CFR) of 0.4% (range: 0.3 to 1.8%) based on confirmed and suspected deaths reported to that time. In a community outbreak in the small community of La Gloria, Veracruz, no deaths were attributed to infection, giving an upper 95% bound on CFR of 0.6%. Thus, although substantial uncertainty remains, clinical severity appears less than that seen in the 1918 influenza pandemic but comparable with that seen in the 1957 pandemic. Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years of age: 61%; ≥15 years: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave basic reproduction number (R0) estimates in the range of 1.4 to 1.6, whereas a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than that of seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.

Rapid Pneumococcal Evolution in Response to Clinical Interventions

Streptococcus pneumonia evades vaccines and drugs by high levels of recombination and rapid adaptation. Epidemiological studies of the naturally transformable bacterial pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae have previously been confounded by high rates of recombination. Sequencing 240 isolates of the PMEN1 (Spain23F-1) multidrug-resistant lineage enabled base substitutions to be distinguished from polymorphisms arising through horizontal sequence transfer. More than 700 recombinations were detected, with genes encoding major antigens frequently affected. Among these were 10 capsule-switching events, one of which accompanied a population shift as vaccine-escape serotype 19A isolates emerged in the USA after the introduction of the conjugate polysaccharide vaccine. The evolution of resistance to fluoroquinolones, rifampicin, and macrolides was observed to occur on multiple occasions. This study details how genomic plasticity within lineages of recombinogenic bacteria can permit adaptation to clinical interventions over remarkably short time scales.

Emergence of 19A as virulent and multidrug resistant pneumococcus in Massachusetts following universal immunization of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine

Background: The long-term effects of selective pressure from conjugate pneumococcal vaccine on the serotype distribution and antimicrobial resistance of carriage and invasive isolates of Streptococcus pneumoniae are unknown. Early changes demonstrate a reduction in vaccine serotypes and an increase in nonvaccine serotypes (NVT) among both carriage and invasive isolates. Ongoing surveillance is necessary to identify emerging invasive serotypes and antimicrobial susceptibilities. Methods: Enhanced surveillance of invasive pneumococcal disease in Massachusetts began in October 2001 and remains ongoing. Isolates from children less than 5 are sent to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and subsequently to the Maxwell Finland laboratory for serotyping and determination of antimicrobial susceptibility. Annual incidence rates for vaccine serotype and NVT disease are calculated using 2000 census data. Results: NVT caused 72%–91% of invasive pneumococcal disease annually in children less than 5 years of age between 2002 and 2005. Serotype 19A has emerged as the most frequent cause of IPD in Massachusetts. A multidrug-resistant clone (ceftriaxone, amoxicillin, azithromycin and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole) (MLST 320) was first identified in Massachusetts in 2005. Conclusions: Three years after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine for universal administration to children less than 2 in Massachusetts, a significant increase in invasive disease due to serotype 19A was observed. Although MLST 199 remains the most frequent sequence type among invasive isolates (of 19A), a multidrug-resistant sequence type, not previously identified in Massachusetts, has become an important cause of invasive disease. Further surveillance of the changing ecology of S. pneumoniae is necessary as a 4-year time period is not sufficient to fully evaluate the impact of PCV of pneumococcal infections.

The Bacterial Species Challenge: Making Sense of Genetic and Ecological Diversity

The Bacteria and Archaea are the most genetically diverse superkingdoms of life, and techniques for exploring that diversity are only just becoming widespread. Taxonomists classify these organisms into species in much the same way as they classify eukaryotes, but differences in their biology—including horizontal gene transfer between distantly related taxa and variable rates of homologous recombination—mean that we still do not understand what a bacterial species is. This is not merely a semantic question; evolutionary theory should be able to explain why species exist at all levels of the tree of life, and we need to be able to define species for practical applications in industry, agriculture, and medicine. Recent studies have emphasized the need to combine genetic diversity and distinct ecology in an attempt to define species in a coherent and convincing fashion. The resulting data may help to discriminate among the many theories of prokaryotic species that have been produced to date.

Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: Epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis

The natural course of HIV-1 infection is characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity in viral load, not just within patients over time, but also between patients, especially during the asymptomatic stage of infection. Asymptomatic, or set-point, viral load has been shown to correlate with both decreased time to AIDS and increased infectiousness. The aim of this study is to characterize the epidemiological impact of heterogeneity in set-point viral load. By analyzing two cohorts of untreated patients, we quantify the relationships between both viral load and infectiousness and the duration of the asymptomatic infectious period. We find that, because both the duration of infection and infectiousness determine the opportunities for the virus to be transmitted, this suggests a trade-off between these contributions to the overall transmission potential. Some public health implications of variation in set-point viral load are discussed. We observe that set-point viral loads are clustered around those that maximize the transmission potential, and this leads us to hypothesize that HIV-1 could have evolved to optimize its transmissibility, a form of adaptation to the human host population. We discuss how this evolutionary hypothesis can be tested, review the evidence available to date, and highlight directions for future research.

Continued Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Carriage in Young Children

OBJECTIVES: The goals were to assess serial changes in Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes and antibiotic resistance in young children and to evaluate whether risk factors for carriage have been altered by heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7). METHODS: Nasopharyngeal specimens and questionnaire/medical record data were obtained from children 3 months to <7 years of age in primary care practices in 16 Massachusetts communities during the winter seasons of 2000–2001 and 2003–2004 and in 8 communities in 2006–2007. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing and serotyping were performed with S pneumoniae isolates. RESULTS: We collected 678, 988, and 972 specimens during the sampling periods in 2000–2001, 2003–2004, and 2006–2007, respectively. Carriage of non-PCV7 serotypes increased from 15% to 19% and 29% (P < .001), with vaccine serotypes decreasing to 3% of carried serotypes in 2006–2007. The relative contribution of several non-PCV7 serotypes, including 19A, 35B, and 23A, increased across sampling periods. By 2007, commonly carried serotypes included 19A (16%), 6A (12%), 15B/C (11%), 35B (9%), and 11A (8%), and high-prevalence serotypes seemed to have greater proportions of penicillin nonsusceptibility. In multivariate models, common predictors of pneumococcal carriage, such as child care attendance, upper respiratory tract infection, and the presence of young siblings, persisted. CONCLUSIONS: The virtual disappearance of vaccine serotypes in S pneumoniae carriage has occurred in young children, with rapid replacement with penicillin-nonsusceptible nonvaccine serotypes, particularly 19A and 35B. Except for the age group at highest risk, previous predictors of carriage, such as child care attendance and the presence of young siblings, have not been changed by the vaccine.

Genomic epidemiology of the Escherichia coli O104:H4 outbreaks in Europe, 2011

The degree to which molecular epidemiology reveals information about the sources and transmission patterns of an outbreak depends on the resolution of the technology used and the samples studied. Isolates of Escherichia coli O104:H4 from the outbreak centered in Germany in May–July 2011, and the much smaller outbreak in southwest France in June 2011, were indistinguishable by standard tests. We report a molecular epidemiological analysis using multiplatform whole-genome sequencing and analysis of multiple isolates from the German and French outbreaks. Isolates from the German outbreak showed remarkably little diversity, with only two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) found in isolates from four individuals. Surprisingly, we found much greater diversity (19 SNPs) in isolates from seven individuals infected in the French outbreak. The German isolates form a clade within the more diverse French outbreak strains. Moreover, five isolates derived from a single infected individual from the French outbreak had extremely limited diversity. The striking difference in diversity between the German and French outbreak samples is consistent with several hypotheses, including a bottleneck that purged diversity in the German isolates, variation in mutation rates in the two E. coli outbreak populations, or uneven distribution of diversity in the seed populations that led to each outbreak.

Population genomics of post-vaccine changes in pneumococcal epidemiology.

Whole-genome sequencing of 616 asymptomatically carried Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates was used to study the impact of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Comparison of closely related isolates showed the role of transformation in facilitating capsule switching to non-vaccine serotypes and the emergence of drug resistance. However, such recombination was found to occur at significantly different rates across the species, and the evolution of the population was primarily driven by changes in the frequency of distinct genotypes extant before the introduction of the vaccine. These alterations resulted in little overall effect on accessory genome composition at the population level, contrasting with the decrease in pneumococcal disease rates after the vaccines introduction.

Sequences, sequence clusters and bacterial species

Whatever else they should share, strains of bacteria assigned to the same species should have house-keeping genes that are similar in sequence. Single gene sequences (or rRNA gene sequences) have very few informative sites to resolve the strains of closely related species, and relationships among similar species may be confounded by interspecies recombination. A more promising approach (multilocus sequence analysis, MLSA) is to concatenate the sequences of multiple house-keeping loci and to observe the patterns of clustering among large populations of strains of closely related named bacterial species. Recent studies have shown that large populations can be resolved into non-overlapping sequence clusters that agree well with species assigned by the standard microbiological methods. The use of clustering patterns to inform the division of closely related populations into species has many advantages for poorly studied bacteria (or to re-evaluate well-studied species), as it provides a way of recognizing natural discontinuities in the distribution of similar genotypes. Clustering patterns can be used by expert groups as the basis of a pragmatic approach to assigning species, taking into account whatever additional data are available (e.g. similarities in ecology, phenotype and gene content). The development of large MLSA Internet databases provides the ability to assign new strains to previously defined species clusters and an electronic taxonomy. The advantages and problems in using sequence clusters as the basis of species assignments are discussed.

Assigning strains to bacterial species via the internet

BackgroundMethods for assigning strains to bacterial species are cumbersome and no longer fit for purpose. The concatenated sequences of multiple house-keeping genes have been shown to be able to define and circumscribe bacterial species as sequence clusters. The advantage of this approach (multilocus sequence analysis; MLSA) is that, for any group of related species, a strain database can be produced and combined with software that allows query strains to be assigned to species via the internet. As an exemplar of this approach, we have studied a group of species, the viridans streptococci, which are very difficult to assign to species using standard taxonomic procedures, and have developed a website that allows species assignment via the internet.ResultsSeven house-keeping gene sequences were obtained from 420 streptococcal strains to produce a viridans group database. The reference tree produced using the concatenated sequences identified sequence clusters which, by examining the position on the tree of the type strain of each viridans group species, could be equated with species clusters. MLSA also identified clusters that may correspond to new species, and previously described species whose status needs to be re-examined. A generic website and software for electronic taxonomy was developed. This site http://www.eMLSA.net allows the sequences of the seven gene fragments of a query strain to be entered and for the species assignment to be returned, according to its position within an assigned species cluster on the reference tree.ConclusionThe MLSA approach resulted in the identification of well-resolved species clusters within this taxonomically challenging group and, using the software we have developed, allows unknown strains to be assigned to viridans species via the internet. Submission of new strains will provide a growing resource for the taxonomy of viridans group streptococci, allowing the recognition of potential new species and taxonomic anomalies. More generally, as the software at the MLSA website is generic, MLSA schemes and strain databases for other groups of related species can be hosted at this website, providing a portal for microbial electronic taxonomy.