William R. Gates

Designing Agent-Based Electronic Employment Markets

Two modes of matching people with jobs prevail at present: 1) hierarchical planning and 2) distributed markets. Each has strengths and limitations, but few systems have been designed to take advantage of strengths corresponding to both. With evolving information technology, however, the job-matching process could be accomplished far more equitably and efficiently using web-based markets within the firm, and intelligent agents offer excellent potential to help both potential employees and employers find one another in a distributed, electronic marketplace. But realizing this potential goes well beyond simply changing the rules of internal job matching or making agent technology available to job searchers. Rather, the corresponding markets and technologies must be designed, together, to mutually accomplish the desired results (e.g., efficient and effective matching) and conform to necessary properties (e.g., market clearing). Through the research described in this paper, we draw from Game Theory results to assess the feasibility of using two-sided matching algorithms to address this market-design problem. We also draw from current agent research to address the information technology dimension of the problem by implementing a proof-of-concept multi-agent system to enact, automate and support the corresponding market solution. This paper integrates the key economic and technological elements required to design robust electronic employment markets. And the corresponding research provides new knowledge and insight into co-development of the requisite economic markets and agent technologies.

Commitment, Threat Perceptions, and Expenditures in a Defense Alliance

The economic theory of alliances is based on public goods theory. This theory has been modified to include defense resources with mixed public/private benefits. This paper develops a defense alliance model that distinguishes public from private benefits based on the degree to which defense resources are committed to the alliance. Resources fully committed to the alliance (e.g., U.S. troops stationed abroad) provide public benefits. Partially committed resources (e.g., U.S.-based NATO reinforcements) provide mixed public/private benefits. Finally, resources committed to uses outside the alliance (e.g., internal security and unrelated international interests) provide mostly private benefits. Threat perceptions are also used in explaining alliance defense expenditures. This model provides plausible explanations for recent defense expenditure trends. It also suggests important policy implications. In particular, free riding is an inherent characteristic of defense alliances and aggregate defense expenditure data cannot measure the distribution of the defense burden.

Reconsidering publicness in alliance defence expenditures: NATO expansion and burden sharing

Over the past several decades, NATO allies have debated the relative burdens and benefits of NATO membership. Recently, this concern surfaced as members debated the magnitude and distribution of NATO expansion costs. This paper presents an economic model of defence alliances to identify the benefits and burdens of alliance membership. It suggests that defence expenditures provide public benefits if alliance members share common interests and mutual commitment; defence expenditures provide private benefits if countries lack common interests and mutual commitment. The models results are used to discuss NATOs evolving roles and missions, NATO expansion and burden sharing across NATO members.

Burden‐sharing in the Persian Gulf: Lessons learned and implications for the future

Abstract : The United States was the dominant member of the coalition formed to counter Iraqs annexation of Kuwait. This led to U.S. concerns that countries benefiting from the coalition were contributing less than their fair share. This paper compares contributions and benefits for the major coalition participants in Operation Desert Storm. The benefits include national sovereignty and oil supply security. The contributions include defense resources and financial and in-kind payments to the U.S. and other countries. The analysis concludes that national sovereignty was the more significant of the two benefits and that the oil supply security benefit may be larger for the U. S. than for countries completely dependent on imported oil (i.e., Japan and Germany). Thus, the Gulf countries may have under contributed to the coalition. Japan and Germany may have over contributed, relative to these benefits, though they may have received other benefits not measured here.

Department of Defense procurement policy reform : an evolutionary perspective

Abstract : The Office of Secretary of Defense (OSD) was established in 1947 and evolved into the Department of Defense (DOD) in 1949. At least part of the reason for forming DOD was to coordinate, rationalize, and increase the efficiency of the defense sectors procurement process. Since its inception, DODs procurement policies have been studied extensively, a multitude of reforms have been recommended, and many reforms have been implemented. However, after almost 40 years, analysts are still recommending reforms to improve coordination and rationality, and to increase the efficiency of DODs procurement policies. This paper will trace the evolution of DODs procurement policies over the last forty years. It will concentrate on five major reform efforts: the McNamara era; the Packard initiatives; OMB Circular A-109; the Acquisition Improvement Program (Carlucci); and the Presidents Blue Ribbon Commission on Defense Management (Packard Commission). Procurement policy, DoD procurement policy reform.

One Size Does NOT Fit All: Personalized Incentives in Military Compensation

A critical element in implementing a compensation scheme including nonmonetary incentives (NMIs) is recognizing that preferences vary widely across Service members. There are at least three sources of variability: across different population classes, across individuals within a population class, and across NMI packages for a particular individual. Surveys across different military communities, ranks, and years of Service show the difficulty of identifying any NMI that has significant value for even 50% of the active duty force. At the same time, approximately 80% of the surveyed Service members expressed a significant positive value for at least one NMI. Therefore, one-size-fits-all incentive packages will not be nearly as effective as more personalized incentive packages. The authors discuss variability in Service member NMI preferences and outline an approach to implementing personalized NMI packages in military compensation through a sealed-bid reverse auction, where Service members select individual NMIs from a “cafeteria-style” menu of options.

Experimental Analysis of e-Employment Market Designs

The majority of electronic (e) commerce research addresses markets and processes associated with the sale of products and services. However, in comparison with research addressing product and service markets, an important area of e-commerce has been relatively neglected: employment markets. In this article, we integrate the key economic and technological elements required to design robust electronic employment markets, and we present empirical results from a pilot experiment comparing performance for a human-based job assignment process to alternative market designs and technologies. In particular, we examined the performance of people equipped with varying levels of technological support ranging from no support through use of a decision support system to total automation of the tasks. The results provide insight into the relative capabilities of people and machines in this domain, and they provide guidance for electronic-employment market design.

United states marine corps aerial refueling requirements: Queuing theory and simulation analysis

The United States Marine Corps (USMC) currently operates a mixed fleet of KC130 aerial tanking aircraft, including series F, R, and T. The F and R aircraft are approximately 30 years old. The USMC is beginning to retire these models in favor of new J series aircraft. As the USMC begins replacing its aging fleet with a newer, more capable model, it is natural to re-estimate the USMC KC130 requirement. This paper uses both queuing theory and simulation to examine the USMC KC130J fixed-wing aerial refueling requirement. It contrasts these methodologies and explores the budgetary implications of alternative fleet requirements.

Relationships Between Government Size and Economic Growth: Japan's Government Reforms and Evidence from OECD

Abstract This paper examines the relationship between government size and economic growth of 21 industrialized countries. Government size is measured by government final consumption expenditures and transfer payments. The relationship between government consumption is expected to increase GDP growth for developing countries, and reduce it for industrialized countries. Government consumption can contribute to increased economic growth. However, government consumption is likely to expand beyond an efficient level in industrialized countries. In contrast, transfer payments, and social welfare programs are likely to reduce economic growth for most countries. These programs reduce work incentives and encourage tax avoidance activities. Work disincentives and tax avoidance reduce economic growth. These expected relationships are consistent with economic performance and government size for the countries considered here. Inefficiency and excessive government growth are checked by voter feedback as tax burdens exceed the associated benefits. Unfortunately, government program costs and benefits are asymmetrically distributed. The resulting tendency is to expand government programs, particularly programs that benefit a majority of voters at the expense of a minority. This tendency becomes even more acute as the tax system becomes more progressive (i.e., tax burdens become concentrated. Reductions in government size are more likely with stagnant or declining economic growth, and in government programs whose costs are widely shared, compared to programs with widely shared benefits and narrowly shared costs.