William Rojas

Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation.

The interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between 1960 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with other years, malaria cases increased by 17.3% during a Niño year and by 35.1% in the post‐Niño year. The annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated (r= 0.62, P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a principal parameter of ENSO. The strong relation between malaria and ENSO in Colombia can be used to predict high and low‐risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Niño conditions, we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions, regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENSO‐based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short‐term analogue for predicting longer‐term effects posed by global climate change.

Laboratory estimation of the effects of increasing temperatures on the duration of gonotrophic cycle of Anopheles albimanus (Diptera: Culicidae)

The increase of malaria transmission in the Pacific Coast of Colombia during the occurrence of El Niño warm event has been found not to be linked to increases in the density of the vector Anopheles albimanus, but to other temperature-sensitive variables such as longevity, duration of the gonotrophic cycle or the sporogonic period of Plasmodium. The present study estimated the effects of temperature on duration of the gonotrophic cycle and on maturation of the ovaries of An. albimanus. Blood fed adult mosquitoes were exposed to temperatures of 24, 27, and 30 degrees C, held individually in oviposition cages and assessed at 12 h intervals. At 24, 27, and 30 degrees C the mean development time of the oocytes was 91.2 h (95% C.I.: 86.5-96), 66.2 h (61.5-70.8), and 73.1 h (64-82.3), respectively. The mean duration of the gonotrophic cycle for these three temperatures was 88.4 h (81.88-94.9), 75 h (71.4-78.7), and 69.1 h (64.6-73.6) respectively. These findings indicate that both parameters in An. albimanus are reduced when temperatures rose from 24 to 30 degrees C, in a nonlinear manner. According to these results the increase in malaria transmission during El Niño in Colombia could be associated with a shortening of the gonotrophic cycle in malaria vectors, which could enhance the frequency of man-vector contact, affecting the incidence of the disease.

Transfer of toxin genes to alternate bacterial hosts for mosquito control

Mosquitoes are vector of serious human and animal diseases, such as malaria, dengue, yellow fever, among others. The use of biological control agents has provide an environmentally safe and highly specific alternative to the use of chemical insecticides in the control of vector borne diseases. Bacillus thuringiensis and B. sphaericus produce toxic proteins to mosquito larvae. Great progress has been made on the biochemical and molecular characterization of such proteins and the genes encoding them. Nevertheless, the low residuality of these biological insecticides is one of the major drawbacks. This article present some interesting aspects of the mosquito larvae feeding habits and review the attempts that have been made to genetically engineer microorganisms that while are used by mosquito larvae as a food source should express the Bacillus toxin genes in order to improve the residuality and stability in the mosquito breeding ponds.

El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Climate and ENSO Variability Associated with Vector-Borne Diseases in Colombia

Climatic factors are associated with the incidence of diverse vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Colombia, located in tropical South America, witnesses high precipitation rates and temperatures, varying with elevation over the Andes. We show how temperatures are linked to malaria incidence throughout the country, and we compare those results with those obtained via simple mathematical expressions that represent indices associated with malaria transmission as a function of temperature. Interannual climatic variability in tropical South America is strongly associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Most of the region, including Colombia, experiences