William W. Macfarlane

An innovative aerial assessment of Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem mountain pine beetle‐caused whitebark pine mortality

An innovative aerial survey method called the Landscape Assessment System (LAS) was used to assess mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae)-caused mortality of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) across the species distribution in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE; 894 774 ha). This large-scale implementation of the LAS method consisted of 8673 km of flight lines, along which 4653 geo-tagged, oblique aerial photos were captured at the catchment level (a subset of 12-digit USGS hydrologic units) and geographic information system (GIS) processed. The Mountain Pine Beetle-caused Mortality Rating System, a landscape-scale classification system designed specifically to measure the cumulative effects of recent and older MPB attacks on whitebark pine, was used to classify mortality with a rating from 0 to 6 based on the amount of red (recent attack) and gray (old attack) trees visible. The approach achieved a photo inventory of 79% of the GYE whitebark pine distribution. For the remaining 21%, mortality levels were estimated based on an interpolated surface. Results that combine the photo-inventoried and interpolated mortality indicate that nearly half (46%) of the GYE whitebark pine distribution showed severe mortality (3-4 or 5.3-5.4 rating), 36% showed moderate mortality (2-2.9 rating), 13% showed low mortality (1-1.9 rating), and 5% showed trace levels of mortality (0-0.9). These results reveal that the proliferation of MPB in the subalpine zone of the GYE due to climate warming has led to whitebark pine mortality that is more severe and widespread than indicated from either previous modeling research or USDA Forest Service Aerial Detection surveys. Sixteen of the 22 major mountain ranges of the GYE have experienced widespread moderate-to-severe mortality. The majority of catchments in the other six mountain ranges show low-to-moderate mortality. Refugia from MPB outbreaks, at least for now, also exist and correspond to locations that have colder microclimates. The spatially explicit mortality information produced by this project has helped forest managers develop and implement conservation strategies that include both preservation and restoration efforts. Future research aimed at documenting and quantifying the ecological impacts of widespread decline and collapse of this foundation and keystone species is warranted.

Research paperThe Valley Bottom Extraction Tool (V-BET): A GIS tool for delineating valley bottoms across entire drainage networks

The shape, size and extent of a valley bottom dictates the form and function of the associated river or stream. Consequently, accurate, watershed-wide delineation of valley bottoms is increasingly recognized as a necessary component of watershed management. While many valley bottom delineation approaches exist, methods that can be effectively applied across entire drainage networks to produce reasonably accurate results are lacking. Most existing tools are designed to work using high resolution topography data (i.e. > 2m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM)) and can only be applied over relatively short reach lengths due to computational or data availability limitations. When these precise mapping approaches are applied throughout drainage networks (i.e. 102-104km), the computational techniques often either do not scale, or the algorithms perform inconsistently. Other tools that produce outputs at broader scale extents generally utilize coarser input topographic data to produce more poorly resolved valley bottom approximations. To fill this methodology gap and produce relatively accurate valley bottoms over large areas, we developed an algorithm that accepts terrain data from one to 10m with slope and valley width parameters that scale based on drainage area, allowing for watershed-scale valley bottom delineation. We packaged this algorithm in the Valley Bottom Extraction Tool (V-BET) as an open-source ArcGIS toolbox for ease of use. To illustrate V-BETs scalability and test the tools robustness across different physiographic settings, we delineated valley bottoms for the entire perennial drainage network of Utah as well as twelve watersheds across the interior Columbia River Basin (totaling 55,400km) using 10m DEMs. We found that even when driven with relatively coarse data (10m DEMs), V-BET produced a relatively accurate approximation of valley bottoms across the entire watersheds of these diverse physiographic regions. Display Omitted Valley bottom delineation is crucial to riverine ecosystem management.Existing delineation tools require LiDAR data to produce reach scale outputs.We developed V-BET to accept 10m data to produce watershed scale outputs.We demonstrate its utility by delineating valley bottoms over large, diverse regions.

The Valley Bottom Extraction Tool (V-BET)

The shape, size and extent of a valley bottom dictates the form and function of the associated river or stream. Consequently, accurate, watershed-wide delineation of valley bottoms is increasingly recognized as a necessary component of watershed management. While many valley bottom delineation approaches exist, methods that can be effectively applied across entire drainage networks to produce reasonably accurate results are lacking. Most existing tools are designed to work using high resolution topography data (i.e. > 2m resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM)) and can only be applied over relatively short reach lengths due to computational or data availability limitations. When these precise mapping approaches are applied throughout drainage networks (i.e. 102-104km), the computational techniques often either do not scale, or the algorithms perform inconsistently. Other tools that produce outputs at broader scale extents generally utilize coarser input topographic data to produce more poorly resolved valley bottom approximations. To fill this methodology gap and produce relatively accurate valley bottoms over large areas, we developed an algorithm that accepts terrain data from one to 10m with slope and valley width parameters that scale based on drainage area, allowing for watershed-scale valley bottom delineation. We packaged this algorithm in the Valley Bottom Extraction Tool (V-BET) as an open-source ArcGIS toolbox for ease of use. To illustrate V-BETs scalability and test the tools robustness across different physiographic settings, we delineated valley bottoms for the entire perennial drainage network of Utah as well as twelve watersheds across the interior Columbia River Basin (totaling 55,400km) using 10m DEMs. We found that even when driven with relatively coarse data (10m DEMs), V-BET produced a relatively accurate approximation of valley bottoms across the entire watersheds of these diverse physiographic regions. Display Omitted Valley bottom delineation is crucial to riverine ecosystem management.Existing delineation tools require LiDAR data to produce reach scale outputs.We developed V-BET to accept 10m data to produce watershed scale outputs.We demonstrate its utility by delineating valley bottoms over large, diverse regions.

An occupancy-based quantification of the highly imperiled status of desert fishes of the southwestern United States

Desert fishes are some of the most imperiled vertebrates worldwide due to their low economic worth and because they compete with humans for water. An ecological complex of fishes, 2 suckers (Catostomus latipinnis, Catostomus discobolus) and a chub (Gila robusta) (collectively managed as the so-called three species) are endemic to the U.S. Colorado River Basin, are affected by multiple stressors, and have allegedly declined dramatically. We built a series of occupancy models to determine relationships between trends in occupancy, local extinction, and local colonization rates, identify potential limiting factors, and evaluate the suitability of managing the 3 species collectively. For a historical period (1889-2011), top performing models (AICc) included a positive time trend in local extinction probability and a negative trend in local colonization probability. As flood frequency decreased post-development local extinction probability increased. By the end of the time series, 47% (95% CI 34-61) and 15% (95% CI 6-33) of sites remained occupied by the suckers and the chub, respectively, and models with the 2 species of sucker as one group and the chub as the other performed best. For a contemporary period (2001-2011), top performing (based on AICc ) models included peak annual discharge. As peak discharge increased, local extinction probability decreased and local colonization probability increased. For the contemporary period, results of models that split all 3 species into separate groups were similar to results of models that combined the 2 suckers but not the chub. Collectively, these results confirmed that declines in these fishes were strongly associated with water development and that relative to their historic distribution all 3 species have declined dramatically. Further, the chub was distinct in that it declined the most dramatically and therefore may need to be managed separately. Our modeling approach may be useful in other situations in which targeted data are sparse and conservation status and best management approach for multiple species are uncertain.

What are the Conditions of Riparian Ecosystems? Identifying Impaired Floodplain Ecosystems across the Western U.S. Using the Riparian Condition Assessment (RCA) Tool

Environmental stressors associated with human land and water-use activities have degraded many riparian ecosystems across the western United States. These stressors include (i) the widespread expansion of invasive plant species that displace native vegetation and exacerbate streamflow and sediment regime alteration; (ii) agricultural and urban development in valley bottoms that decouple streams and rivers from their floodplains and reduce instream wood recruitment and retention; and (iii) flow modification that reduces water quantity and quality, degrading aquatic habitats. Here we apply a novel drainage network model to assess the impacts of multiple stressors on reach-scale riparian condition across two large U.S. regions. In this application, we performed a riparian condition assessment evaluating three dominant stressors: (1) riparian vegetation departure from historical condition; (2) land-use intensity within valley bottoms; and (3) floodplain fragmentation caused by infrastructure within valley bottoms, combining these stressors in a fuzzy inference system. We used freely available, geospatial data to estimate reach-scale (500 m) riparian condition for 52,800 km of perennial streams and rivers, 25,600 km in Utah, and 27,200 km in 12 watersheds of the interior Columbia River Basin (CRB). Model outputs showed that riparian condition has been at least moderately impaired across ≈70% of the streams and rivers in Utah and ≈49% in the CRB. We found 84% agreement (Cohen’s ĸ = 0.79) between modeled reaches and field plots, indicating that modeled riparian condition reasonably approximates on-the-ground conditions. Our approach to assessing riparian condition can be used to prioritize watershed-scale floodplain conservation and restoration by providing network-scale data on the extent and severity of riparian degradation. The approach that we applied here is flexible and can be expanded to run with additional riparian stressor data and/or finer resolution input data.