Willis L. Peterson

International Farm Prices and the Social Cost of Cheap Food Policies

The evidence suggests that real prices received by farmers in the LDCs have been substantially lower than farm prices in the developed nations. Estimates of a long-run aggregate agricultural supply elasticity from cross-section data reveal that it is relatively elastic, in the range of 1.25 to 1.66. It is estimated also that with more favorable farm prices agricultural output in a group of twenty-seven LDCs could have been 40% to 60% greater than it was and the national income of the group increased by more than 3% annually.

THE PRODUCTIVITY AND ALLOCATION OF RESEARCH: U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENT STATIONS

The main purpose of this paper is to present estimates of the marginal products and rates of return to the four major categories of agricultural research conducted by U.S. agricultural experiment stations (cash grains, poultry, dairy, and livestock).

Land Quality and Prices

The major objective of this paper is to develop a cross section land quality index for the United States that hopefully overcomes one of the problems inherent in the most common land quality index presently used. After adjusting agricultural land for quality, a cross section, quality constant, U.S. land price index also is constructed. Lastly the weights obtained in constructing the U.S. land quality index are utilized to construct an international cross section land quality index for the world.

The Cotton Harvester in Retrospect: Labor Displacement or Replacement?

The prevailing view of new mechanical technology is that it has, in large part, pushed labor out of agriculture. An alternative hypothesis is that labor has been pulled out of agriculture by higher wages in nonfarm occupations. The mechanical cotton harvester is used to test the two hypotheses. Estimation of a simultaneous-equation model of the labor market for cotton pickers reveals 79 percent of reduction in hand picking of cotton was due to increased nonfarm wages—the pull effect; the remaining 21 percent is attributed to the decreased cost of machine harvesting—the push effect.

Induced Innovations and Farm Mechanization

cal change in agriculture, then they come mainly from the public agent of farm technology-the agricultural research system; the research system should be held responsible for the social consequences of farm mechanization, and it should be budgeted and directed accordingly. On the other hand, if mechanization and exit from farming are caused mostly by external price and wage changes, the responsibility of the research system is limited principally to technology improvement. In this note we discuss the newly emerging tradition of induced innovation and its relation to the alternative explanations of machine-labor substitution in agriculture. We first clarify the conceptual basis of the induced innovation hypothesis and the related innovation possibility function. Second, we call into question the validity of some of the empirical applications. We argue that an incomplete conceptualization of the induced innovation idea has led to invalid empirical tests and to inappropriate implications on the causes of American farm mechanization.

The Allocation of Research, Teaching, and Extension Personnel in U.S. Colleges of Agriculture

The aim of this paper is to inventory the allocation of research, teaching, and extension personnel by departments in United States colleges of agriculture and experiment stations, and to identify and measure factors that appear to influence this allocation. Although growth is the predominate characteristic of departments and disciplines, we observe and can predict decline in several instances. With the use of multiple regression analysis, state nonfarm income emerges as the most important variable explaining total funds available to experiment stations. Rural farm population has virtually no effect on total funds available. In fact, since 1960 it was somewhat of a detriment for an agricultural experiment station to be located in an agricultural state. At the departmental level, the departments engaged in farm oriented research (agronomy, animal husbandry, etc.) appear to be more dependent on farm income for support whereas departments in closer contact with the nonfarm sector (horticulture, agricultural economics, etc.) are more dependent on nonfarm income. Predictions for the early 1970s indicate largest growth for departments located in the high income, urban-industrial states particularly for those more closely tied to nonfarm income.

Cropland Diversions and Rural Nonfarm Population Change

Data from 100 farming-dependent counties in the U.S. are used to measure the impact of acreage reduction programs on the level of the rural nonfarm population. Results of a simultaneous equation model suggest that the programs had a negative influence on the number of rural nonfarm people, reducing the rural nonfarm population in these counties by an estimated 15-16% over the 1960-90 period.

Rice yields in Nepal: Is the 4-tons per hectare yield goal attainable?

Abstract In recent years, rice production in Nepal has not kept pace with the population growth. As a result, the government of Nepal has called for a rice yield goal of 4-tons per hectare. This is about double the current average yield for the country. In this study, we attempt to determine whether the 4-tons per hectare yield goal is attainable. The inputs required to achieve higher rice yields were estimated from the coefficients of a production function fitted to farm level data collected from two villages, located in the Rupandehi district of western Nepal. The results suggest that the 4-tons per hectare yield is economically feasible in the areas that are 100 percent irrigated. However, it would not be realistic to expect this yield in the areas where irrigated land approaches the national average of only 23 percent. Nevertheless, it should be possible for Nepal to achieve a rice yield increase sufficient to meet the increase in domestic demand in the foreseeable future. ( JEL O13)

Is the Demand for Experiment Station Personnel Declining

Demand functions for teaching, research, and extension (TRE) personnel in U.S. agricultural experiment stations and associated colleges are estimated from panel data, decennial observations, 1950 to 1987. The results suggest that the TRE staffing during the 1950s and 1960s was smaller than predicted, but that the catching up process was in large part completed during the 1970s. Except for a decline in the 1970s, academic salaries maintained a rough parity with salaries of all private employees in the economy during the 1950–87 period. Although there is no sign of an unexplained decrease in TRE demand during the 1980s, prospects of zero growth during the 1990s imply a substantial reduction in demand for new Ph.D.s compared to earlier times. Zero growth has implications for the design of Ph.D. programs since the majority of future graduates will have to find employment outside of experiment stations and associated colleges.

International food stamps

Abstract The author suggests a new direction for farm and food aid policy — an international food stamp programme that will increase prices received by farmers in both developed and developing countries, thereby stimulating food production, and also provide food efficiently for the poor people who need it. The proposed programme will cost no more than is currently spent on farm income support and food aid programmes and could eventually replace those programmes.