Witold Kwasnicki

Long-term diffusion factors of technological development: An evolutionary model and case study

In the first part of this article, a short description of the most popular models of two competing technologies (the Fisher-Pry model and its modifications proposed by Blackman, Floyd, Sharif and Kabir) and the multi technological substitution models of Peterka and Marchetti-Nakiaeenoviae are presented. In the second section, we describe an evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biological analogy, together with the method of its parameters’ identification using real data on technologies development. In the final sections the applications of that model to describe the real diffusion processes (namely, primary energy sources in the world energy consumption and the raw steel production in the United States) are presented. The feasibility of using the model to predict future shares of given technologies and to build alternative scenarios of future evolution of structure of the market is suggested.

Diversity and development: Tempo and mode of evolutionary processes

Abstract A simple model of evolutionary processes (i.e., processes showing far-reaching analogies with biological evolution) and the results of a simulation study of the model are presented. The model consists only of the main features of evolutionary processes and has been worked out for a special purpose: to show how the tempo and mode of evolutionary processes depend on the population diversity in which those processes take place. The long-range mode of development of evolutionary processes is a rough one, characterized by two successive phases: a quasi-equilibrium phase and a substitution phase. In the quasi-equilibrium phase, two parallel processes act: very noticably, a process of gradual improvement of existing types, and in the background, a searching process of new basic improvement. In the substitution phase the new basic improvement supersedes the old type and the system goes to a new quasi-equilibrium phase. Compared to the lenght of the quasi-equilibrium phase, the duration of the substitution phase is very much shorter and looks like a leap. Duration of the quasi- equilibrium phase is greatly influenced by chance and its probability distribution depends mainly on the population diversity. The two opposing mechanisms—selection and generation of types—determine the population distribution within the parameter domain. The distribution consists of the center (the “best” type elements) and the neighborhood. The main source of improvements (innovations) lies in the neighborhood; that is, the “worst” elements. The two main strategies of development—short-sighted and far-sighted—have been identified.

MISS-E: A method of modeling and simulation of dynamic systems

Abstract The MISS-E computer program is a method for the modeling of continuous dynamic systems. This paper provides a general description of the program with special attention given to the inclusion of events into the model. Events may interact with continuous variables and also may influence the structure of the model. The model is constructed by interacting with the program.

‘Leaping Across the Mountains, Bounding Over the Hills’: Punctualism and Gradualism in Economic Development

The expert contributors to this book examine recent developments in empirical methods and applied simulation in evolutionary economics. Using examples of innovation and technology in industry, it is the first book to address the following questions in a systematic manner: Can evolutionary economics use the same empirical methods as other research traditions in economics?; Is there a need for empirical methods appropriate to the subject matter chosen?; What is the relationship between appreciative theorising, case studies and more structured empirical methods?; and What is the relationship of modelling and simulation to empirical analysis?