Wouter Nijs

Improved Representation of the European Power Grid in Long Term Energy System Models: Case Study of JRC-EU-TIMES

This chapter describes a methodology to integrate DC power flow modeling and N − 1 security into JRC-EU-TIMES, a multiregional TIMES energy system model. It improves the accuracy of modeling cross-border transmission expansion especially for energy systems with higher penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). We describe three grid representations with increasing accuracy of modeling power flow constraints: (1) basic trade flow without DC power flow, (2) DC power flow with fixed line characteristics and (3) DC power flow with a discretization algorithm, endogenous grid characteristics and N − 1 contingency analysis. The last approach uses the newly developed Integrated TIMES–NEPLAN Software (ITNS) that couples JRC-EU-TIMES energy system modeling with NEPLAN-based electricity grid modeling. To evaluate the improvement of the JRC-EU-TIMES modeling mechanisms, the three grid representations are compared. We conclude that cross border transmission expansion is cost efficient regardless of the grid representation. The impact of power flow constraints is limited for the analyzed case study under the assumption of perfect markets. However, integrating these constraints is leading to slightly higher cross-border capacities for most countries mainly in periods with limited availability of variable renewable electricity. This occurs when grid extensions and peaking power in some strategic countries are more competitive than local peaking power for each country. This is possible without a substantial increase in model running time.

Post Kyoto Options for Belgium, 2012-2050

This report examines possible post-Kyoto options for Belgium. Climate change is coming up again at the top of the policy agenda with the decision of the European Commission to reduce its GHG emissions by 20% by 2020. The analysis is done with the MARKAL/TIMES model, a partial equilibrium model for the energy system. It is a technico-economic model, which assembles in a simple but economic consistent way technological information (conversion-efficiency, investment- and variable costs, emissions, etc.) for the entire energy system. Two CO2 reduction scenarios for Belgium are analysed up to the horizon 2050, with and without the possibility of nuclear and carbon capture technologies. The scenarios analysed show that it is possible to attain very stringent CO2 reductions in Belgium. The welfare cost remains limited in the case of a -22.5% reduction in 2050 compared to 1990. The cost is 0.7% of GDP on an annual base but it can become more expensive and reaches up to 1.3% of GDP on an annual base, when the reduction is -52%. These costs are the costs within the energy system without considering any potential side benefits (reduction of other air pollutants and energy security) and assuming a CO2 tax or a permit system as policy instrument for achieving the CO2 reduction target, i.e. an efficient instrument.