X. Yue

Strong chemistry-climate feedbacks in the Pliocene

The Pliocene epoch was the last sustained interval when global climate was significantly warmer than today but has been difficult to explain fully based on the external forcings from atmospheric carbon dioxide and surface albedo. Here we use an Earth system model to simulate terrestrial ecosystem emissions and atmospheric chemical composition in the mid-Pliocene (about 3 million years ago) and the preindustrial (~1750s). Tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors from vegetation and wildfire are ~50% and ~100% higher in the mid-Pliocene due to the spread of the tropical savanna and deciduous biomes. The chemistry-climate feedbacks contribute a net global warming that is +30–250% of the carbon dioxide effect and a net aerosol global cooling that masks 15–100% of the carbon dioxide effect. These large vegetation-mediated ozone and aerosol feedbacks operate on centennial to millennial timescales in the climate system and have not previously been included in paleoclimate sensitivity assessments.

Limited effect of ozone reductions on the 20-year photosynthesis trend at Harvard forest

Ozone (O3 ) damage to leaves can reduce plant photosynthesis, which suggests that declines in ambient O3 concentrations ([O3 ]) in the United States may have helped increase gross primary production (GPP) in recent decades. Here, we assess the effect of long-term changes in ambient [O3 ] using 20xa0years of observations at Harvard forest. Using artificial neural networks, we found that the effect of the inclusion of [O3 ] as a predictor was slight, and independent of O3 concentrations, which suggests limited high-frequency O3 inhibition of GPP at this site. Simulations with a terrestrial biosphere model, however, suggest an average long-term O3 inhibition of 10.4% for 1992-2011. A decline of [O3 ] over the measurement period resulted in moderate predicted GPP trends of 0.02-0.04xa0μmolxa0Cxa0m-2 xa0s-1 xa0yr-1 , which is negligible relative to the total observed GPP trend of 0.41xa0μmolxa0Cxa0m-2 xa0s-1 xa0yr-1 . A similar conclusion is achieved with the widely used AOT40 metric. Combined, our results suggest that ozone reductions at Harvard forest are unlikely to have had a large impact on the photosynthesis trend over the past 20xa0years. Such limited effects are mainly related to the slow responses of photosynthesis to changes in [O3 ]. Furthermore, we estimate that 40% of photosynthesis happens in the shade, where stomatal conductance and thus [O3 ] deposition is lower than for sunlit leaves. This portion of GPP remains unaffected by [O3 ], thus helping to buffer the changes of total photosynthesis due to varied [O3 ]. Our analyses suggest that current ozone reductions, although significant, cannot substantially alleviate the damages to forest ecosystems.

An intercomparative study of the effects of aircraft emissions on surface air quality

This study intercompares, among five global models, the potential impacts of all commercial aircraft emissions worldwide on surface ozone and particulate matter (PM2.5). The models include climate-response models (CRMs) with interactive meteorology, chemical-transport models (CTMs) with prescribed meteorology, and models that integrate aspects of both. Model inputs are harmonized in an effort to achieve a consensus about the state of understanding of impacts of 2006 commercial aviation emissions. Models find that aircraft increase near-surface ozone (0.3 to 1.9% globally), with qualitatively similar spatial distributions, highest in the Northern Hemisphere. Annual changes in surface-level PM2.5 in the CTMs (0.14 to 0.4%) and CRMs (−1.9 to 1.2%) depend on differences in nonaircraft baseline aerosol fields among models and the inclusion of feedbacks between aircraft emissions and changes in meteorology. The CTMs tend to result in an increase in surface PM2.5 primarily over high-traffic regions in the North American midlatitudes. The CRMs, on the other hand, demonstrate the effects of aviation emissions on changing meteorological fields that result in large perturbations over regions where natural emissions (e.g., soil dust and sea spray) occur. The changes in ozone and PM2.5 found here may be used to contextualize previous estimates of impacts of aircraft emissions on human health.