Xia Meng

Both low and high temperature may increase the risk of stroke mortality

Objective: To examine temperature in relation to stroke mortality in a multicity time series study in China. Methods: We obtained data on daily temperature and mortality from 8 large cities in China. We used quasi-Poisson generalized additive models and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the accumulative effects of temperature on stroke mortality across multiple days, adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of the week, air pollution, and relative humidity. We applied the Bayesian hierarchical model to pool city-specific effect estimates. Results: Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality. The potential effect of cold temperature might last more than 2 weeks. The pooled relative risks of extreme cold (first percentile of temperature) and cold (10th percentile of temperature) temperatures over lags 0–14 days were 1.39 (95% posterior intervals [PI] 1.18–1.64) and 1.11 (95% PI 1.06–1.17), compared with the 25th percentile of temperature. In contrast, the effect of hot temperature was more immediate. The relative risks of stroke mortality over lags 0–3 days were 1.06 (95% PI 1.02–1.10) for extreme hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature) and 1.14 (95% PI 1.05–1.24) for hot temperature (90th percentile of temperature), compared with the 75th percentile of temperature. Conclusions: This study showed that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased risk of stroke mortality in China. Our findings may have important implications for stroke prevention in China.

Size-fractionated particle number concentrations and daily mortality in a Chinese city.

Background: Associations between airborne particles and health outcomes have been documented worldwide; however, there is limited information regarding health effects associated with different particle sizes. Objectives: We explored the association between size-fractionated particle number concentrations (PNCs) and daily mortality in Shenyang, China. Methods: We collected daily data on cause-specific mortality and PNCs for particles measuring 0.25–10 μm in diameter between 1 December 2006 and 30 November 2008. We used quasi-Poisson regression generalized additive models to estimate associations between PNCs and mortality, and we used natural spline smoothing functions to adjust for time-varying covariates and long-term and seasonal trends. Results: Mean numbers of daily deaths were 67, 32, and 7 for all natural causes, cardiovascular diseases, and respiratory diseases, respectively. Interquartile range (IQR) increases in PNCs for particles measuring 0.25–0.50 μm were significantly associated with total and cardiovascular mortality, but not respiratory mortality. Effect estimates were larger for PNCs during the warm season than the cool season, and increased with decreasing particle size. IQR increases in PNCs of 0.25–0.28 μm, 0.35–0.40 μm, and 0.45–0.50 μm particles were associated with 2.41% (95% CI: 1.23, 3.58%), 1.31% (95% CI: 0.52, 2.09%), and 0.45% (95% CI: 0.04, 0.87%) higher total mortality, respectively. Associations were generally stable after adjustment for mass concentrations of ambient particles and gaseous pollutants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that particles < 0.5 μm in diameter may be most responsible for adverse health effects of particulate air pollution and that adverse health effects may increase with decreasing particle size. Citation: Meng X, Ma Y, Chen R, Zhou Z, Chen B, Kan H. 2013. Size-fractionated particle number concentrations and daily mortality in a Chinese city. Environ Health Perspect 121:1174–1178; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206398

Communicating air pollution-related health risks to the public: an application of the Air Quality Health Index in Shanghai, China.

The Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) was originally developed in Canada. However, little is known about its validity in communicating morbidity risks. We aimed to establish the AQHI in Shanghai, China, and to compare the associations of AQHI and existing Air Pollution Index (API) with daily mortality and morbidity. We constructed the AQHI as the sum of excess total mortality associated with individual air pollutants, and then adjusted it to an arbitrary scale (0-10), according to a time-series analysis of air pollution and mortality in Shanghai from 2001 to 2008. We examined the associations of AQHI with daily mortality and morbidity, and compared these associations with API from 2005 to 2008. The coefficients of short-term associations of total mortality with particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM(10)), PM(2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) were used in the establishment of AQHI. During 2005-2008, the AQHI showed linear non-threshold positive associations with daily mortality and morbidity. A unit increase of the PM(10)-AQHI was associated with a 0.90% [95% (confidence interval, CI), 0.43 to 1.37], 1.04% (95%CI, 0.04 to 2.04), 1.62% (95%CI, 0.39 to 2.85) and 0.51% (95%CI, 0.09 to 0.93) increase of current-day total mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient visits and emergency room visits, respectively. The PM(2.5)-AQHI showed quite similar effect estimates with the PM(10)-AQHI. In contrast, the associations for API were much weaker and generally statistically insignificant. The AQHI, compared with the existing API, provided a more effective tool to communicate the air pollution-related health risks to the public.

Fine Particulate Air Pollution and Daily Mortality. A Nationwide Analysis in 272 Chinese Cities

Rationale: Evidence concerning the acute health effects of air pollution caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in developing countries is quite limited. Objectives: To evaluate short‐term associations between PM2.5 and daily cause‐specific mortality in China. Methods: A nationwide time‐series analysis was performed in 272 representative Chinese cities from 2013 to 2015. Two‐stage Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to estimate regional‐ and national‐average associations between PM2.5 concentrations and daily cause‐specific mortality. City‐specific effects of PM2.5 were estimated using the overdispersed generalized additive models after adjusting for time trends, day of the week, and weather conditions. Exposure‐response relationship curves and potential effect modifiers were also evaluated. Measurements and Main Results: The average of annual mean PM2.5 concentration in each city was 56 &mgr;g/m3 (minimum, 18 &mgr;g/m3; maximum, 127 &mgr;g/m3). Each 10‐&mgr;g/m3 increase in 2‐day moving average of PM2.5 concentrations was significantly associated with increments in mortality of 0.22% from total nonaccidental causes, 0.27% from cardiovascular diseases, 0.39% from hypertension, 0.30% from coronary heart diseases, 0.23% from stroke, 0.29% from respiratory diseases, and 0.38% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There was a leveling off in the exposure‐response curves at high concentrations in most, but not all, regions. The associations were stronger in cities with lower PM2.5 levels or higher temperatures, and in subpopulations with elder age or less education. Conclusions: This nationwide investigation provided robust evidence of the associations between short‐term exposure to PM2.5 and increased mortality from various cardiopulmonary diseases in China. The magnitude of associations was lower than those reported in Europe and North America.

Associations between fine particle, coarse particle, black carbon and hospital visits in a Chinese city

China is one of the countries with the highest ambient particle levels in the world; however, there have been no epidemiologic studies examining the effects of fine particle (PM2.5), coarse particle (PM10-2.5) and black carbon (BC) simultaneously on morbidity outcomes. In this study, we conducted a time-series analysis to evaluate the acute effects of PM2.5, PM10-2.5, and BC on daily hospital visits in Shanghai, China. During our study period, the mean daily concentrations of PM2.5, PM10-2.5 and BC were 53.9 μg/m(3), 38.4 μg/m(3) and 3.9 μg/m(3), respectively. We found significant associations of PM2.5, PM 10-2.5, and BC with daily hospital visits. An inter-quartile range increase of the average concentrations of the current and previous days in PM2.5, PM10-2.5 and BC was associated with a 1.88% (95% CI: 0.69% to 3.06%), a 1.30% (95% CI: 0.25% to 2.34%) and a 1.33% (95% CI: 0.34% to 2.32%) increase in emergency-room visits, respectively. For outpatient visits, the corresponding estimated changes were -2.44% (95% CI: -6.62% to 1.74%), 1.09% (95% CI: -2.72% to 4.90%) and 3.34% (95% CI: 0.10% to 6.57%) respectively. The effects of BC were more robust than the effects of PM2.5 and PM10-2.5 in two-pollutant models. To our knowledge, this is the first study in China, or even in Asian developing countries, to report the effect of PM2.5, PM10-2.5, and BC simultaneously on morbidity. Our findings also suggest that BC could serve as a valuable air quality indicator that reflects the health risks of airborne particles.

Acute effects of diurnal temperature range on mortality in 8 Chinese cities.

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator closely associated with global climate change. There have been no multicity studies in China addressing the DTR-related health impact. We hypothesized that an increase of DTR is associated with higher daily mortality with a potential lag of effect, and investigated the acute effects of DTR on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in 8 large Chinese cities from 2001 to 2010. We first calculated city-specific effect of DTR in the full year, the cool season (November to the next April) and the warm season (May to October) separately using a semi-parametric generalized additive model; then we pooled the city-specific estimates with meta analysis. After adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, temperature, relative humidity and air pollution levels, we found statistically significant associations between DTR and daily mortality, especially in cool seasons. A 1 °C increment of DTR on lag-day 1 corresponded to a 0.42% (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.70) increase in total non-accidental mortality, 0.45% (95% CI, 0.26 to 0.65) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and a 0.76% (95% CI, 0.24 to 1.29) increase in respiratory mortality in cool seasons. Deaths among females and elderly (≥ 65 years) were more strongly associated with DTR than among males and younger people (<65 years). Our analysis suggests that DTR is a potential trigger for death in China. Our findings may have important implications for the climate policies in the country.

A land use regression model for estimating the NO2 concentration in shanghai, China

Limited by data accessibility, few exposure assessment studies of air pollutants have been conducted in China. There is an urgent need to develop models for assessing the intra-urban concentration of key air pollutants in Chinese cities. In this study, a land use regression (LUR) model was established to estimate NO2 during 2008-2011 in Shanghai. Four predictor variables were left in the final LUR model: the length of major road within the 2-km buffer around monitoring sites, the number of industrial sources (excluding power plants) within a 10-km buffer, the agricultural land area within a 5-km buffer, and the population counts. The model R(2) and the leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV) R(2) of the NO2 LUR models were 0.82 and 0.75, respectively. The prediction surface of the NO2 concentration based on the LUR model was of high spatial resolution. The 1-year predicted concentration based on the ratio and the difference methods fitted well with the measured NO2 concentration. The LUR model of NO2 outperformed the kriging and inverse distance weighed (IDW) interpolation methods in Shanghai. Our findings suggest that the LUR model may provide a cost-effective method of air pollution exposure assessment in a developing country.

Short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and coronary heart disease mortality in 8 Chinese cities

BACKGROUND Coronary heart disease (CHD) accounted for a large fraction of death globally. The association between air pollution and CHD has been reported, but evidence from highly-polluted regions was scarce. We aimed to estimate the acute effects of outdoor air pollution on daily CHD mortality in China. METHODS We collected daily CHD deaths in 8 large Chinese cities from 1996 to 2008. We firstly obtained the city-specific effect estimates of air pollution using generalized additive models with quasi-Poisson regression, controlling for time trends, meteorological indicators and day of the week. The random-effect model in meta-analysis was used to pool the exposure-response relationships. RESULTS We identified a total of 0.13 million CHD deaths. On average, an increase of 10μg/m(3) in 2-day moving average concentrations of particulate matter≤10μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was significantly associated with increases of 0.36% [95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.12%, 0.61%], 0.86% (95% CIs: 0.30%,1.41%) and 1.30% (95% CIs: 0.45%, 2.14%) in daily CHD mortality over the 8 Chinese cities, respectively. The pooled exposure-response curves were almost linear and no apparent thresholds were identified. The effects were more pronounced in cities with lower levels of air pollution. The effects of PM10 and NO2 were more robust than SO2. CONCLUSION Our findings contributed to the very limited evidence regarding the hazardous effects of ambient air pollution on CHD mortality in highly-polluted regions such as China.

Ozone and Daily Mortality Rate in 21 Cities of East Asia: How Does Season Modify the Association?

Previous studies in East Asia have revealed that the short-term associations between tropospheric ozone and daily mortality rate were strongest in winter, which is opposite to the findings in North America and Western Europe. Therefore, we investigated the season-varying association between ozone and daily mortality rate in 21 cities of East Asia from 1979 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to analyze the association between ozone and daily nonaccidental mortality rate in each city, testing for different temperature lags. The best-fitting model was obtained after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to pool the city-specific estimates. An interquartile-range increase of the moving average concentrations of same-day and previous-day ozone was associated with an increase of 1.44% (95% posterior interval (PI): 1.08%, 1.80%) in daily total mortality rate after adjustment for temperature in the previous 2 weeks. The corresponding increases were 0.62% (95% PI: 0.08%, 1.16%) in winter, 1.46% (95% PI: 0.89%, 2.03%) in spring, 1.60% (95% PI: 1.03%, 2.17%) in summer, and 1.12% (95% PI: 0.73%, 1.51%) in fall. We found significant associations between short-term exposure to ozone and higher mortality rate in East Asia that varied considerably from season to season with a significant trough in winter.

Ambient air pollution, temperature and out-of-hospital coronary deaths in Shanghai, China.

Few studies have evaluated the effects of ambient air pollution and temperature in triggering out-of-hospital coronary deaths (OHCDs) in China. We evaluated the associations of air pollution and temperature with daily OHCDs in Shanghai, China from 2006 to 2011. We applied an over-dispersed generalized additive model and a distributed lag nonlinear model to analyze the effects of air pollution and temperature, respectively. A 10 μg/m(3) increase in the present-day PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2 and CO were associated with increases in OHCD mortality of 0.49%, 0.68%, 0.88%, 1.60% and 0.08%, respectively. A 1 °C decrease below the minimum-mortality temperature corresponded to a 3.81% increase in OHCD mortality on lags days 0-21, and a 1 °C increase above minimum-mortality temperature corresponded to a 4.61% increase over lag days 0-3. No effects were found for in-hospital coronary deaths. This analysis suggests that air pollution, low temperature and high temperature may increase the risk of OHCDs.