Xia Wan

Rapid health transition in China, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Summary Background China has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how Chinas health burden compares with other nations. Methods We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings The leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5–1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948 700 deaths, 774 500–1 024 600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934 000 deaths, 846 600–1 032 300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2–32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9–43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010. Interpretation The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for Chinas health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Emergence of chronic non-communicable diseases in China.

China has experienced an epidemiological transition shifting from the infectious to the chronic diseases in much shorter time than many other countries. The pace and spread of behavioural changes, including changing diets, decreased physical activity, high rates of male smoking, and other high risk behaviours, has accelerated to an unprecedented degree. As a result, the burden of chronic diseases, preventable morbidity and mortality, and associated health-care costs could now increase substantially. China already has 177 million adults with hypertension; furthermore, 303 million adults smoke, which is a third of the worlds total number of smokers, and 530 million people in China are passively exposed to second-hand smoke. The prevalence of overweight people and obesity is increasing in Chinese adults and children, because of dietary changes and reduced physical activity. Emergence of chronic diseases presents special challenges for Chinas ongoing reform of health care, given the large numbers who require curative treatment and the narrow window of opportunity for timely prevention of disease.

Cause-specific mortality for 240 causes in China during 1990–2013: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND China has experienced a remarkable epidemiological and demographic transition during the past three decades. Far less is known about this transition at the subnational level. Timely and accurate assessment of the provincial burden of disease is needed for evidence-based priority setting at the local level in China. METHODS Following the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we have systematically analysed all available demographic and epidemiological data sources for China at the provincial level. We developed methods to aggregate county-level surveillance data to inform provincial-level analysis, and we used local data to develop specific garbage code redistribution procedures for China. We assessed levels of and trends in all-cause mortality, causes of death, and years of life lost (YLL) in all 33 province-level administrative units in mainland China, all of which we refer to as provinces, for the years between 1990 and 2013. FINDINGS All provinces in mainland China have made substantial strides to improve life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2013. Increases ranged from 4.0 years in Hebei province to 14.2 years in Tibet. Improvements in female life expectancy exceeded those in male life expectancy in all provinces except Shanghai, Macao, and Hong Kong. We saw significant heterogeneity among provinces in life expectancy at birth and probability of death at ages 0-14, 15-49, and 50-74 years. Such heterogeneity is also present in cause of death structures between sexes and provinces. From 1990 to 2013, leading causes of YLLs changed substantially. In 1990, 16 of 33 provinces had lower respiratory infections or preterm birth complications as the leading causes of YLLs. 15 provinces had cerebrovascular disease and two (Hong Kong and Macao) had ischaemic heart disease. By 2013, 27 provinces had cerebrovascular disease as the leading cause, five had ischaemic heart disease, and one had lung cancer (Hong Kong). Road injuries have become a top ten cause of death in all provinces in mainland China. The most common non-communicable diseases, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cancers (liver, stomach, and lung), contributed much more to YLLs in 2013 compared with 1990. INTERPRETATION Rapid transitions are occurring across China, but the leading health problems and the challenges imposed on the health system by epidemiological and demographic change differ between groups of Chinese provinces. Localised health policies need to be implemented to tackle the diverse challenges faced by local health-care systems. FUNDING China National Science & Technology Pillar Program 2013 (2013BAI04B02) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Indigenous and tribal peoples' health (The Lancet-Lowitja Institute Global Collaboration): a population study.

BACKGROUND International studies of the health of Indigenous and tribal peoples provide important public health insights. Reliable data are required for the development of policy and health services. Previous studies document poorer outcomes for Indigenous peoples compared with benchmark populations, but have been restricted in their coverage of countries or the range of health indicators. Our objective is to describe the health and social status of Indigenous and tribal peoples relative to benchmark populations from a sample of countries. METHODS Collaborators with expertise in Indigenous health data systems were identified for each country. Data were obtained for population, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, low and high birthweight, maternal mortality, nutritional status, educational attainment, and economic status. Data sources consisted of governmental data, data from non-governmental organisations such as UNICEF, and other research. Absolute and relative differences were calculated. FINDINGS Our data (23 countries, 28 populations) provide evidence of poorer health and social outcomes for Indigenous peoples than for non-Indigenous populations. However, this is not uniformly the case, and the size of the rate difference varies. We document poorer outcomes for Indigenous populations for: life expectancy at birth for 16 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1 year in 15 populations; infant mortality rate for 18 of 19 populations with a rate difference greater than one per 1000 livebirths in 16 populations; maternal mortality in ten populations; low birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in three populations; high birthweight with the rate difference greater than 2% in one population; child malnutrition for ten of 16 populations with a difference greater than 10% in five populations; child obesity for eight of 12 populations with a difference greater than 5% in four populations; adult obesity for seven of 13 populations with a difference greater than 10% in four populations; educational attainment for 26 of 27 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 24 populations; and economic status for 15 of 18 populations with a difference greater than 1% in 14 populations. INTERPRETATION We systematically collated data across a broader sample of countries and indicators than done in previous studies. Taking into account the UN Sustainable Development Goals, we recommend that national governments develop targeted policy responses to Indigenous health, improving access to health services, and Indigenous data within national surveillance systems. FUNDING The Lowitja Institute.

The road to effective tobacco control in China

The non-communicable disease burden in China is enormous, with tobacco use a leading risk factor for the major non-communicable diseases. The prevalence of tobacco use in men is one of the highest in the world, with more than 300 million smokers and 740 million non-smokers exposed to second-hand smoke. In the past decade public awareness of the health hazards of tobacco use and exposure to second-hand smoke has grown, social customs and habits have changed, aggressive tactics used by the tobacco industry have been revealed, and serious tobacco control policies have been actively promoted. In 2014, national legislators in China began actively considering national bans on smoking in public and work places and tobacco advertising. However, tobacco control in China has remained particularly difficult because of interference by the tobacco industry. Changes to the interministerial coordinating mechanism for implementation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control are now crucial. Progress towards a tobacco-free world will be dependent on more rapid action in China.

Evaluation of the quality of cause of death statistics in rural China using verbal autopsies

Background: Death registration systems in rural China are in a developmental stage. The Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system provides the only nationally representative information on causes of death. In this system, there are no standard procedures or instruments for ascertaining causes of death; hence available statistics require careful evaluation before use. Aim: To assess the reliability of data from the DSP. Methods: 14 DSP sites were selected through stratified sampling, enrolling 2482 deaths registered during June–November 2002. Defined verbal autopsy (VA) procedures were used to derive underlying causes of death. κ Measures of agreement between VA and registered diagnoses were computed. VA diagnoses were used as references to compute sensitivity and positive predictive values. Finally, patterns of cause-specific discordance between the two data sources were studied. Results: κ Scores indicate only moderate agreement for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and ischaemic heart disease (IHD). The results also suggest that COPD is undercounted in registration data. A significant degree of cross attribution of cause was found between the two data sources. Overall, the VA was successful in limiting deaths with ill-defined causes to <10%. Conclusions: Diagnoses based on structured symptom questionnaires in the VA approach seem plausible and reliable as compared with lay-reported diagnoses in registration data. Concerns with attribution of cause of death due to COPD, IHD and tuberculosis in registration data suggest caution in their use for research and health programme purposes. The VA methods tested in this study offer promise for implementation in the routine registration system.

Conflict of interest and FCTC implementation in China

Objective To critically review the structure of tobacco control policy making in China, examine conflicts of interest within this structure, and consider how these affected the introduction of on-pack warnings. Methods Government policy documents and warning labels were obtained and critically reviewed. Results Few differences exist between the on-pack warnings formerly used in China and those introduced ostensibly to meet Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) obligations. Comparison with tobacco manufactured for export or overseas consumption shows the new Chinese domestic on-pack warnings are demonstrably inferior to those required internationally. The inherent conflict of interest in the Chinese tobacco control agency structure, which must meet commercial and public health objectives, undermined the introduction of new health warnings. Conclusions To promote more effective tobacco control policies, the conflict of interest inhibiting the public health function of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration (STMA) must be removed. Specifically, the public health function must be separated from oversight of commercial production, and packaging must be redesigned with pictorial warnings and messages compliant with Article 11 of the FCTC.

Perceived Discrimination and Smoking Among Rural-to-Urban Migrant Women in China

Smoking may be a coping mechanism for psychosocial stress caused by discrimination. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of rural-to-urban migrant women working as restaurant/hotel workers (RHWs) and those working as sex workers (FSWs) in 10 Chinese cities to investigate whether perceived discrimination is associated with smoking. We interviewed RHWs at medical examination clinics and FSWs at entertainment venues. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios. Of the 1,696 RHWs and 532 FSWs enrolled, 155 (9.1%) and 63 (11.8%) reported perceived discrimination, respectively. Perceived discrimination was independently associated with ever tried smoking (prevalence ratio [PR], 1.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31–2.23) and current smoking (PR, 2.52; 95% CI, 1.32–4.79) among RHWs and ever tried smoking (PR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.16–1.61) and current smoking (PR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.28–2.06) among FSWs. Perceived discrimination is associated with higher prevalence of smoking among rural-to-urban migrant women in China.

Smoking among young rural to urban migrant women in China: a cross-sectional survey.

Background Rural-to-urban migrant women may be vulnerable to smoking initiation as they are newly exposed to risk factors in the urban environment. We sought to identify correlates of smoking among rural-to-urban migrant women in China. Methods/Principal Findings A cross-sectional survey of rural-to-urban migrant women working in restaurants and hotels (RHW) and those working as commercial sex workers (CSW) was conducted in ten provincial capital cities in China. Multiple logistic regression was conducted to identify correlates of smoking. We enrolled 2229 rural-to-urban migrant women (1697 RHWs aged 18–24 years and 532 CSWs aged 18–30 years). Of these, 18.4% RHWs and 58.3% CSWs reported ever tried smoking and 3.2% RHWs and 41.9% CSWs reported current smoking. Participants who first tried smoking after moving to the city were more likely to be current smokers compared to participants who first tried smoking before moving to the city (25.3% vs. 13.8% among RHWs, p = 0.02; 83.6% vs. 58.6% among CSWs, p = <0.01). Adjusting for other factors, “tried female cigarette brands” had the strongest association with current smoking (OR 5.69, 95%CI 3.44 to 9.41) among participants who had ever tried smoking. Conclusions/Significance Exposure to female cigarette brands may increase the susceptibility to smoking among rural-to-urban migrant women. Smoke-free policies and increased taxes may be effective in preventing rural-to-urban migrant women from smoking initiation.

Development of policy performance indicators to assess the implementation of protection from exposure to secondhand smoke in China

Objective To develop an approach for rapid assessment of tobacco control interventions in China. We examined the correlation between components of the Strength of Tobacco Control (SOTC) index and a proposed rapid evaluation indicator, the Policy Performance Indicator (PPI), which is based on protection of non-smokers from secondhand smoke (SHS). The PPI was used to assess the implementation of policies related to SHS at the provincial/municipal level in China. Methods Stratified random sampling was used to select five types of organisational and household respondents in two municipalities and five provinces in China (Shanghai and Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Henan, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangxi, respectively). Data collection methods included key informant interviews, observation and intercept surveys (organisations), and a modified Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) questionnaire (households). SOTC scores (SHS policy, capacity and efforts), PPI (no smoking in designated smoke-free places) and mid-term to long-term impact (knowledge, attitude and reduced exposure to SHS) were measured, and correlations among them were calculated. Results The PPI varied across the seven locations. Shanghai led in the component indicators (at 56.5% for indoor workplaces and 49.1% for indoor public places, respectively), followed by Guangdong, Tianjin and Zhejiang (at 30–35% for these two indicators), and finally, Henan and Jiangxi (at 20–25%). Smoke-free policies were more effectively implemented at indoor workplaces than indoor public places. The PPI correlated well with certain components of the SOTC but not with the long-term indicators. Conclusions The PPI is useful for evaluating implementation of smoke-free policies. As tobacco control programmes are implemented, the PPI offers an indicator to track success and change strategies, without collecting data for a full SOTC index.