Xianan Jiang

Structures and Mechanisms of the Northward Propagating Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation

Abstract The spatial and temporal structures of the northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are revealed based on the analysis of both the ECHAM4 model simulation and the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The BSISO structure and evolution characteristics simulated by the model bear many similarities to those derived from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. The most notable features are the remarkable meridional asymmetries, relative to the BSISO convection, in the vorticity and specific humidity fields. A positive vorticity perturbation with an equivalent barotropic structure appears a few latitude degrees north of the convection center. The maximum specific humidity also shows a clear northward shift in the lower troposphere. Two internal atmospheric dynamics mechanisms are proposed to understand the cause of the northward propagation of the BSISO. The first is the vertical shear mechanism. The key process associated with this mechanism is the generation of barotropic vorticity due to the couplin...

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments: Part III: Assessment of Twenty-First-Century Projections*

AbstractIn part III of a three-part study on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, the authors examine projections of twenty-first-century climate in the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission experiments. This paper summarizes and synthesizes results from several coordinated studies by the authors. Aspects of North American climate change that are examined include changes in continental-scale temperature and the hydrologic cycle, extremes events, and storm tracks, as well as regional manifestations of these climate variables. The authors also examine changes in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and North American intraseasonal to decadal variability, including changes in teleconnections to other regions of the globe. Projected changes are generally consistent with those previously published for CMIP3, although CMIP5 model projections differ importantly from those of CMIP3 in some aspects, inc...

Predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)*

The Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) represents a primary source of predictability on the intraseasonal time scalesanditsinfluenceextends fromseasonalvariationstoweatherand extreme events.While the lastdecadehas witnessed marked improvement in dynamical MJO prediction, an updated estimate of MJO predictability from a contemporary suite of dynamic models, in conjunction with an estimate of their corresponding prediction skill, is crucial for guiding future research and development priorities. In this study, the predictability of the boreal winter MJOis revisited based on the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE), a set of dedicated extended-range hindcasts from eight different coupled models. Two estimates of MJO predictability are made, based on single-member and ensemble-mean hindcasts, giving values of 20‐30 days and 35‐45 days, respectively. Exploring the dependence of predictability on the phase of MJO during hindcast initiation reveals a slightly higher predictability for hindcasts initiated from MJO phases 2, 3, 6, or 7 in three of the models with higher prediction skill. The estimated predictability of MJO initiated in phases 2 and 3 (i.e., convection in Indian Ocean with subsequentpropagationacrossMaritimeContinent)beingequalto orhigherthanotherMJOphasesimplies that the so-called Maritime Continent prediction barrier may not actually be an intrinsic predictability limitation. For most of the models, the skill for single-member (ensemble mean) hindcasts is less than the estimated predictability limit by about 5‐10 days (15‐25 days), implying that significantly more skillful MJO forecasts can be afforded through further improvements of dynamical models and ensemble prediction systems (EPS).

North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability

AbstractThis is the second part of a three-part paper on North American climate in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that evaluates the twentieth-century simulations of intraseasonal to multidecadal variability and teleconnections with North American climate. Overall, the multimodel ensemble does reasonably well at reproducing observed variability in several aspects, but it does less well at capturing observed teleconnections, with implications for future projections examined in part three of this paper. In terms of intraseasonal variability, almost half of the models examined can reproduce observed variability in the eastern Pacific and most models capture the midsummer drought over Central America. The multimodel mean replicates the density of traveling tropical synoptic-scale disturbances but with large spread among the models. On the other hand, the coarse resolution of the models means that tropical cyclone frequencies are underpredicted in the Atlantic and eastern North Pa...

Vertical Diabatic Heating Structure of the MJO: Intercomparison between Recent Reanalyses and TRMM Estimates

AbstractCapitalizing on recently released reanalysis datasets and diabatic heating estimates based on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the authors have conducted a composite analysis of vertical anomalous heating structures associated with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). Because diabatic heating lies at the heart of prevailing MJO theories, the intention of this effort is to provide new insights into the fundamental physics of the MJO. However, some discrepancies in the composite vertical MJO heating profiles are noted among the datasets, particularly between three reanalyses and three TRMM estimates. A westward tilting with altitude in the vertical heating structure of the MJO is clearly evident during its eastward propagation based on three reanalysis datasets, which is particularly pronounced when the MJO migrates from the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) to the western Pacific (WP). In contrast, this vertical tilt in heating structure is not readily seen in the three TRMM product...

Assessing the Skill of an All-Season Statistical Forecast Model for the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract Motivated by an attempt to augment dynamical models in predicting the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and to provide a realistic benchmark to those models, the predictive skill of a multivariate lag-regression statistical model has been comprehensively explored in the present study. The predictors of the benchmark model are the projection time series of the leading pair of EOFs of the combined fields of equatorially averaged outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and zonal winds at 850 and 200 hPa, derived using the approach of Wheeler and Hendon. These multivariate EOFs serve as an effective filter for the MJO without the need for bandpass filtering, making the statistical forecast scheme feasible for the real-time use. Another advantage of this empirical approach lies in the consideration of the seasonal dependence of the regression parameters, making it applicable for forecasts all year-round. The forecast model exhibits useful extended-range skill for a real-time MJO forecast. Predictions with a ...

Reinitiation of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the Tropical Indian Ocean

The characteristic features of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) during its reinitiation period are studied using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Based on these observations and with the aid of an anomalous atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), a possible mechanism responsible for the BSISO reinitiation is elucidated. The western equatorial Indian Ocean along the eastern African coast tends to be a key region for the phase transition of the BSISO from an enhanced to suppressed convective phase, or vise versa. The major precursory feature associated with reinitiation of suppressed convection is found in the divergence and reduced specific humidity in the boundary layer. Numerical experiments indicate that the low-level divergence is caused by the cold horizontal temperature advection and associated adiabatic warming (descending motion) in situ. The summer mean state is found to be important for the cold horizontal temperature advection through the modulation of a Gill-type response to an intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) heating in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. The results in this study suggest a selfsustained paradigm in the Indian Ocean for the BSISO; that is, the BSISO could be a basinwide phenomenon instead of a global circumstance system as hypothesized for the boreal winter ISO (i.e., the Madden– Julian oscillation).

Multimodel evaluation of cloud phase transition using satellite and reanalysis data

We take advantage of climate simulations from two multimodel experiments to characterize and evaluate the cloud phase partitioning in 16 general circulation models (GCMs), specifically the vertical structure of the transition between liquid and ice in clouds. We base our analysis on the ratio of ice condensates to the total condensates (phase ratio, PR). Its transition at 90% (PR90) and its links with other relevant variables are evaluated using the GCM-Oriented Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation Cloud Product climatology, reanalysis data, and other satellite observations. In 13 of 16 models, the PR90 transition height occurs too low (6 km to 8.4 km) and at temperatures too warm (−13.9°C to −32.5°C) compared to observations (8.6 km, −33.7°C); features consistent with a lack of supercooled liquid with respect to ice above 6.5 km. However, this bias would be slightly reduced by using the lidar simulator. In convective regimes (more humid air and precipitation), the observed cloud phase transition occurs at a warmer temperature than for subsidence regimes (less humid air and precipitation). Only few models manage to roughly replicate the observed correlations with humidity (5/16), vertical velocity (5/16), and precipitation (4/16); 3/16 perform well for all these parameters (MPI-ESM, NCAR-CAM5, and NCHU). Using an observation-based Clausius-Clapeyron phase diagram, we illustrate that the Bergeron-Findeisen process is a necessary condition for models to represent the observed features. Finally, the best models are those that include more complex microphysics.

Modulation of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern Pacific by the Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an AGCM

AbstractThis study illustrates that observed modulations of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) by large-scale intraseasonal variability (ISV) are well represented in a recently developed high-resolution atmospheric model (HiRAM) at the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km. Considering the intrinsic predictability of the ISV of 2–4 weeks, this analysis thus has significant implications for dynamically based TC predictions on intraseasonal time scales. Analysis indicates that the genesis potential index (GPI) anomalies associated with the ISV can generally well depict ISV modulations of EPAC TC genesis in both observations and HiRAM simulations. Further investigation is conducted to explore the key factors associated with ISV modulation of TC activity based on an analysis of budget terms of the observed GPI during the ISV life cycle. It is found that, while relative roles of GPI factors are dependent on ISV phase and locatio...