Xianghu Li

Hydrodynamic and Hydrological Modeling of the Poyang Lake Catchment System in China

AbstractIn this paper, a distributed catchment-hydrology model and a physically based lake hydrodynamic model were used to simulate the large-scale and highly dynamic lake catchment system of Poyang Lake, in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin, China. The simulation of the hydrodynamics of the lake is a significant extension to previous efforts to simulate Poyang Lake’s considerable variability in lake extent and flow rates. Further, the combination of the distributed catchment-hydrology model and the lake-hydrodynamic model, applied to a highly dynamic and large-scale system, is a rare attempt to develop a physically based management model of this complexity and scale. Model calibration and validation were undertaken to evaluate the model’s performance and to enhance its effectiveness in simulating catchment discharges, lake water levels, lake water surface areas, and lake flow patterns. The results showed a satisfactory agreement with field observations, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.71–...

Assessing the performance of satellite-based precipitation products and its dependence on topography over Poyang Lake basin

Satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) have greatly improved their applicability and are expected to offer an alternative to ground-based precipitation estimates in the present and the foreseeable future. There is a strong need for a quantitative evaluation of the usefulness and limitations of SPPs in operational meteorology and hydrology. This study compared two widely used high-resolution SPPs, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN) in Poyang Lake basin which is located in the middle reach of the Yangtze River in China. The bias of rainfall amount and occurrence frequency under different rainfall intensities and the dependence of SPPs performance on elevation and slope were investigated using different statistical indices. The results revealed that (1) TRMM 3B42 usually underestimates the rainy days and overestimates the average rainfall as well as annual rainfall, while the PERSIANN data were markedly lower than rain gauge data; (2) the rainfall contribution rates were underestimated by TRMM 3B42 in the middle rainfall class but overestimated in the heavy rainfall class, while the opposite trend was observed for PERSIANN; (3) although the temporal distribution characteristics of monthly rainfall were correctly described by both SPPs, PERSIANN tended to suffer a systematic underestimation of rainfall in every month; and (4) the performances of both SPPs had clear dependence on elevation and slope, and their relationships can be fitted using quadratic equations.

Variation of Floods Characteristics and Their Responses to Climate and Human Activities in Poyang Lake, China

The Poyang Lake is one of the most frequently flooded areas in China. Understanding the changing characteristics of floods as well as the affecting factors is an important prerequisite of flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The present study identified the characteristics variations of historical floods in the Poyang Lake and their tendencies based on the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, and also investigated the related affecting factors, both from climate and human activities. The results revealed that the highest flood stages, duration as well as hazard coefficient of floods showed a long-term increasing linear trend during the last 60 years with the M-K statistic of 1.49, 1.60 and 1.50, respectively. And, a slightly increasing linear trend in the timing of the highest stages indicated the floods occurred later and later during the last six decades. The rainfall during the flood season and subsequent discharges of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and runoff from the Poyang Lake Basin were mainly responsible for the severe flood situation in the Poyang Lake in the 1990s. In addition, the intensive human activities, including land reclamation and levee construction, also played a supplementary role in increasing severity of major floods. While, the fewer floods in the Poyang Lake after 2000 can be attributed to not only the less rainfall over the Poyang Lake Basin and low discharges of the Changjiang River during flood periods, but also the stronger influences of human activity which increased the floodwater storage of the Poyang Lake than before.

Factors influencing water level changes in China's largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake, in the past 50 years

This study analyses the changing characteristics in the level of Poyang Lake during the period 1960–2010. Results show that the changing stage of annual lake level variations is evident, and average onset time of the lake dry season has advanced since the 1990s. Investigation indicates that the Yangtze River discharge has a greater impact on annual lake level variations than the lake’s catchment inflow. Climate change in the Yangtze River basin since the 1990s is possibly the precondition for the advance of the lake dry season, which is further aggravated by the effects of the Three Gorges Dam in the 2000s.

A comparison of parameter estimation for distributed hydrological modelling using automatic and manual methods

Distributed hydrological models have become the main tool to study the hydrology natural law and solve the hydrology practice question. However, the definition of model parameter values limits their application. Manual calibration is time consuming and often tedious, and the automatic calibration method could be an innovative way of improving the traditional model fitting procedure. PEST is designed for easy linkage with other models and has been applied to many distributed hydrological model. Therefore, the PEST model is selected in this paper to link with the WATLAC model and calibrate the parameters, and compare the calibration results with manual results. The results show that the difference of two group parameter values is obvious. The PEST model can easily drive the WATLAC model and gain the optimal parameter values efficiently. The WATLAC model produces an overall good fit, the Ens values, except in 2001, are more than 0.83 and with an average of 0.93. But the relative runoff depth errors are larger slightly than manual results. The simulated stream flow hydrographs with PEST demonstrated a closer agreement with the observed hydrographs, while, the model simulation using manual calibration method behaved not very well and there was a tendency for the model to enlarge the peak flows.

Investigation of the Variability and Implications of Meteorological Dry/Wet Conditions in the Poyang Lake Catchment, China, during the Period 1960–2010

This paper presents a quantitative investigation of the variability of meteorological dry/wet conditions of the Poyang Lake catchment during 1960–2010 by using the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on daily observations of 14 meteorological stations across the catchment. Extending from previous studies, the background of the encounter and overlap of multitimescales of meteorological dry/wet episodes for several severe drought and flood events were discussed. In addition, the possible impacts of temperature changes on dry/wet variability were also examined by the comparison of SPEI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) variations at multitimescales during the study period. Major results show that the occurrence of dry/wet condition has become increasingly frequent in the recent two decades, especially the extreme wet episodes in 1990s and the extreme dry episodes in 2000s. Historically, the encounter and overlap of multitimescales of meteorological dry/wet episodes plays an important role in the occurrence of several severe drought and flood events. The study concluded that the impact of temperature anomaly to the dry/wet variability cannot be neglected.

Capabilities of Satellite-Based Precipitation to Estimate the Spatiotemporal Variation of Flood/Drought Class in Poyang Lake Basin

Poyang Lake basin is one of the most frequently affected areas by a variety of flood or drought events in China. Satellite-based precipitation data have greatly improved their temporal and spatial resolution in recent years, but the short length of records limited their applications in some fields. This paper compared and evaluated the creditability of using a short period data series to estimate the statistics characteristics of long period data series and investigated the usefulness of TRMM rainfall data for monitoring the temporal and spatial distribution of flood/drought classes by the Z index method in Poyang Lake basin. The results show that (1) the 1998–2010 data series are sufficiently robust to depict the statistics characteristics of long period data; (2) the intra-annual distribution and interannual variability of flood/drought classes based on TRMM rainfall data matched well with the results from rain gauges data; (3) the spatial agreement between TRMM and interpolated gauges rainfall varied with the precipitation characteristics; and (4) TRMM rainfall data described the similar spatial pattern of flood/drought classes with the interpolated gauges rainfall. In conclusion, it is suitable and credible for flood/drought classes evaluation based on the TRMM rainfall data in Poyang Lake basin.

Effects of spatial information of soil physical properties on hydrological modeling based on a distributed hydrological model

The spatial distribution of soil physical properties is essential for modeling and understanding hydrological processes. In this study, the different spatial information (the conventional soil types map-based spatial information (STMB) versus refined spatial information map (RSIM)) of soil physical properties, including field capacity, soil porosity and saturated hydraulic conductivity are used respectively as input data for Water Flow Model for Lake Catchment (WATLAC) to determine their effectiveness in simulating hydrological processes and to expound the effects on model performance in terms of estimating groundwater recharge, soil evaporation, runoff generation as well as partitioning of surface and subsurface water flow. The results show that: 1) the simulated stream flow hydrographs based on the STMB and RSIM soil data reproduce the observed hydrographs well. There is no significant increase in model accuracy as more precise soil physical properties information being used, but WATLAC model using the RSIM soil data could predict more runoff volume and reduce the relative runoff depth errors; 2) the groundwater recharges have a consistent trend for both cases, while the STMB soil data tend to produce higher groundwater recharges than the RSIM soil data. In addition, the spatial distribution of annual groundwater recharge is significantly affected by the spatial distribution of soil physical properties; 3) the soil evaporation simulated using the STMB and RSIM soil data are similar to each other, and the spatial distribution patterns are also insensitive to the spatial information of soil physical properties; and 4) although the different spatial information of soil physical properties does not cause apparent difference in overall stream flow, the partitioning of surface and subsurface water flow is distinct. The implications of this study are that the refined spatial information of soil physical properties does not necessarily contribute to a more accurate prediction of stream flow, and the selection of appropriate soil physical property data needs to consider the scale of watersheds and the level of accuracy required.

Lake flooding sensitivity to the relative timing of peak flows between upstream and downstream waterways: a case study of Poyang Lake, China

The relative timing of peak flows (RTPF) from tributaries has significant influence on flood occurrence at their confluence. This study is aimed at 1) analyzing the characteristics of the RTPF of the five recharging rivers in the Poyang Lake catchment and the Yangtze River during the period of 1960–2012, and 2) employing a physically-based hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21) to quantify the effects of RTPF on flood behavior in the Poyang Lake (the largest freshwater lake in China). The results show that short RTPF, or close occurrence of peak flows, triggers flood in the Poyang Lake more easily. More than 75% of total flood events in the study period occurred with RTPF less than 60 days, and more than 55% of the events occurred with RTPF less than 30 days. The hydrodynamic simulation revealed that the date of flood peak in the lake was postponed by 4−7 days and the flood stage raised by 0.69 m because of the delay of peak flows from the upstream rivers/tributaries. On the other hand, earlier start of the Yangtze River peak flow led to flood peak in the lake 6−13 days earlier . Additionally, the duration of high lake water levels was extended by 9−12 days when the RTPF shortened, and the flood hydrograph of the Poyang Lake changed from a flat to a flashy type. These results indicate that an enlarged RTPF between the upstream rivers and the Yangtze River could be an effective way to prevent flood disasters in the Poyang Lake, a method apparently being adopted in the operation of the Three Gorges Dam. The RTPF should be considered and integrated when developing flood prevention and management plans in the Poyang Lake, as well as in other similar regions in the world.

Change of annual extreme water levels and correlation with river discharges in the middle-lower Yangtze River: Characteristics and possible affecting factors

As one of the fastest developing regions in China, the middle-lower Yangtze River (MLYR) is vulnerable to floods and droughts. With obtained time series of annual highest water level (HWL), annual lowest water level (LWL) and the corresponding river discharges from three gauging stations in MLYR that covering the period 1987–2011, the current study evaluated the change characteristics of annual extreme water levels and the correlation with river discharges by using the methods of trend test, Mann-Whitney-Pettitt (MWP) test and double mass analysis. Major result indicated a decreasing/increasing trend for annual HWL/LWL of all stations in MLYR during the study period. A change point in 1999 was identified for annual HWL at the Hankou and Datong stations. The year 2006 was found to be the critical year that the relationship between annual extreme water levels and river discharges changed in the MLYR. With contrast to annual LWL in MLYR, further investigation revealed that the change characteristics of annual HWL were highly consistent with regional precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin, while the linkage with Three Gorges Dam (TGD) operation is not strong. Our observation also pointed out that the effect of serious down cutting of the riverbed and the enlargement of the cross-section area during the initial period of TGD operation caused the downward trend of the relationship between annual LWL and river discharge. Whereas, the relatively raised river water level before the flood season due to TGD regulation since 2006 explained for the changing upward trend of the relationship between annual HWL and river discharge.