Xiangming Xiao

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The models potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

Green-up dates in the Tibetan Plateau have continuously advanced from 1982 to 2011

As the Earth’s third pole, the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a pronounced warming in the past decades. Recent studies reported that the start of the vegetation growing season (SOS) in the Plateau showed an advancing trend from 1982 to the late 1990s and a delay from the late 1990s to 2006. However, the findings regarding the SOS delay in the later period have been questioned, and the reasons causing the delay remain unknown. Here we explored the alpine vegetation SOS in the Plateau from 1982 to 2011 by integrating three long-term time-series datasets of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS, 1982–2006), SPOT VEGETATION (SPOT-VGT, 1998–2011), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, 2000–2011). We found GIMMS NDVI in 2001–2006 differed substantially from SPOT-VGT and MODIS NDVIs and may have severe data quality issues in most parts of the western Plateau. By merging GIMMS-based SOSs from 1982 to 2000 with SPOT-VGT–based SOSs from 2001 to 2011 we found the alpine vegetation SOS in the Plateau experienced a continuous advancing trend at a rate of ∼1.04 d·y−1 from 1982 to 2011, which was consistent with observed warming in springs and winters. The satellite-derived SOSs were proven to be reliable with observed phenology data at 18 sites from 2003 to 2011; however, comparison of their trends was inconclusive due to the limited temporal coverage of the observed data. Longer-term observed data are still needed to validate the phenology trend in the future.

Combining remote sensing and ground census data to develop new maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in China

[1] Large-scale assessments of the potential for food production and its impact on biogeochemical cycling require the best possible information on the distribution of cropland. This information can come from ground-based agricultural census data sets and/ or spaceborne remote sensing products, both with strengths and weaknesses. Official cropland statistics for China contain much information on the distribution of crop types, but are known to significantly underestimate total cropland areas and are generally at coarse spatial resolution. Remote sensing products can provide moderate to fine spatial resolution estimates of cropland location and extent, but supply little information on crop type or management. We combined county-scale agricultural census statistics on total cropland area and sown area of 17 major crops in 1990 with a fine-resolution land-cover map derived from 1995–1996 optical remote sensing (Landsat) data to generate 0.5� resolution maps of the distribution of rice agriculture in mainland China. Agricultural census data were used to determine the fraction of crop area in each 0.5� grid cell that was in single rice and each of 10 different multicrop paddy rice rotations (e.g., winter wheat/ rice), while the remote sensing land-cover product was used to determine the spatial distribution and extent of total cropland in China. We estimate that there were 0.30 million km 2 of paddy rice cropland; 75% of this paddy land was multicropped, and 56% had two rice plantings per year. Total sown area for paddy rice was 0.47 million km 2 . Paddy rice agriculture occurred on 23% of all cultivated land in China. INDEX TERMS: 0315 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Biosphere/atmosphere interactions; 1615 Global Change: Biogeochemical processes (4805); KEYWORDS: paddy rice, maps, China, multicropping rotation, Landsat

Anatidae Migration in the Western Palearctic and Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus

Anatids may have spread the virus along their autumn migration routes.

Characterization of forest types in Northeastern China, using multi-temporal SPOT-4 VEGETATION sensor data

Abstract In this study, we explored the potential of multi-temporal SPOT-4 VEGETATION (VGT) sensor data for characterization of temperate and boreal forests in Northeastern China. As the VGT sensor has a short-wave infrared (SWIR) band that is sensitive to vegetation, soil moisture and leaf water content, the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was calculated in addition to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A forest map of Northeast China was generated from an unsupervised classification of 25 10-day VGT composite data (NDVI and NDWI) over the period of March 11–20, 1999 to November 11–20, 1999. Seven different forest categories were distinguished from the 1-km spatial resolution VGT data. The VGT forest map was compared to estimates of forest area derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images. There was a good agreement on spatial distribution and area of forest between the VGT product and the TM product, however, the VGT product provided additional information on forest type. Analysis of NDVI and NDWI over the plant growing season allows for the identification of distinct growth patterns between the different forest types. It is evident that VGT data can be used to provide timely and detailed forest maps with limited ancillary data needed. The VGT-derived forest maps could be very useful as input to biogeochemical models (particularly carbon cycle models) that require timely estimates of forest area and type.

Observation of flooding and rice transplanting of paddy rice fields at the site to landscape scales in China using VEGETATION sensor data

A unique physical feature of paddy rice fields is that rice is grown on flooded soil. During the period of flooding and rice transplanting, there is a large proportion of surface water in a land surface consisting of water, vegetation and soils. The VEGETATION (VGT) sensor has four spectral bands that are equivalent to spectral bands of Landsat TM, and its mid-infrared spectral band is very sensitive to soil moisture and plant canopy water content. In this study we evaluated a VGT-derived normalized difference water index (NDWI VGT =(B3-MIR)/ (B3+MIR)) for describing temporal and spatial dynamics of surface moisture. Twenty-seven 10-day composites (VGT- S10) from 1 March to 30 November 1999 were acquired and analysed for a study area (175 km by 165 km) in eastern Jiangsu Province, China, where a winter wheat and paddy rice double cropping system dominates the landscape. We compared the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI VGT ) and NDWI VGT . The NDWI VGT temporal dynamics were sensitive enough to capture the substantial increases of surface water due to flooding and rice transplanting at paddy rice fields. A land use thematic map for the timing and location of flooding and rice transplanting was generated for the study area. Our results indicate that NDWI and NDVI temporal anomalies may provide a simple and effective tool for detection of flooding and rice transplanting across the landscape.

Equilibrium responses of global net primary production and carbon storage to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide: Sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration

We ran the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) for the globe at 0.5° resolution for atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 340 and 680 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to evaluate global and regional responses of net primary production (NPP) and carbon storage to elevated CO2 for their sensitivity to changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration. At 340 ppmv, TEM estimated global NPP of 49.0 1015 g (Pg) C yr−1 and global total carbon storage of 1701.8 Pg C; the estimate of total carbon storage does not include the carbon content of inert soil organic matter. For the reference simulation in which doubled atmospheric CO2 was accompanied with no change in vegetation nitrogen concentration, global NPP increased 4.1 Pg C yr−1 (8.3%), and global total carbon storage increased 114.2 Pg C. To examine sensitivity in the global responses of NPP and carbon storage to decreases in the nitrogen concentration of vegetation, we compared doubled CO2 responses of the reference TEM to simulations in which the vegetation nitrogen concentration was reduced without influencing decomposition dynamics (“lower N” simulations) and to simulations in which reductions in vegetation nitrogen concentration influence decomposition dynamics (“lower N+D” simulations). We conducted three lower N simulations and three lower N+D simulations in which we reduced the nitrogen concentration of vegetation by 7.5, 15.0, and 22.5%. In the lower N simulations, the response of global NPP to doubled atmospheric CO2 increased approximately 2 Pg C yr−1 for each incremental 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, and vegetation carbon increased approximately an additional 40 Pg C, and soil carbon increased an additional 30 Pg C, for a total carbon storage increase of approximately 70 Pg C. In the lower N+D simulations, the responses of NPP and vegetation carbon storage were relatively insensitive to differences in the reduction of nitrogen concentration, but soil carbon storage showed a large change. The insensitivity of NPP in the N+D simulations occurred because potential enhancements in NPP associated with reduced vegetation nitrogen concentration were approximately offset by lower nitrogen availability associated with the decomposition dynamics of reduced litter nitrogen concentration. For each 7.5% reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration, soil carbon increased approximately an additional 60 Pg C, while vegetation carbon storage increased by only approximately 5 Pg C. As the reduction in vegetation nitrogen concentration gets greater in the lower N+D simulations, more of the additional carbon storage tends to become concentrated in the north temperate-boreal region in comparison to the tropics. Other studies with TEM show that elevated CO2 more than offsets the effects of climate change to cause increased carbon storage. The results of this study indicate that carbon storage would be enhanced by the influence of changes in plant nitrogen concentration on carbon assimilation and decomposition rates. Thus changes in vegetation nitrogen concentration may have important implications for the ability of the terrestrial biosphere to mitigate increases in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 and climate changes associated with the increases.

Integrated Global System Model for Climate Policy Assessment: Feedbacks and Sensitivity Studies

Alternative policies to address global climate change are being debated in many nations and within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. To help provide objective and comprehensive analyses in support of this process, we have developed a model of the global climate system consisting of coupled sub-models of economic growth and associated emissions, natural fluxes, atmospheric chemistry, climate, and natural terrestrial ecosystems. The framework of this Integrated Global System Model is described and the results of sample runs and a sensitivity analysis are presented. This multi-component model addresses most of the major anthropogenic and natural processes involved in climate change and also is computationally efficient. As such, it can be used effectively to study parametric and structural uncertainty and to analyze the costs and impacts of many policy alternatives. Initial runs of the model have helped to define and quantify a number of feedbacks among the sub-models, and to elucidate the geographical variations in several variables that are relevant to climate science and policy. The effect of changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels on the uptake of carbon and emissions of methane and nitrous oxide by land ecosystems is one potentially important feedback which has been identified. The sensitivity analysis has enabled preliminary assessment of the effects of uncertainty in the economic, atmospheric chemistry, and climate sub-models as they influence critical model results such as predictions of temperature, sea level, rainfall, and ecosystem productivity. We conclude that uncertainty regarding economic growth, technological change, deep oceanic circulation, aerosol radiative forcing, and cloud processes are important influences on these outputs.

Ecosystem functions, services and their values - a case study in Xingshan County of China

Forest ecosystem services can provide both direct and indirect economic benefits. In this case study, at county-level, we estimated the annual economic value of some ecosystem services by forest ecosystems in the Xingshan County of Hubei Province of China, using both simulation models and geographic information system (GIS) that helps to analyze the effect of ecological factors (vegetation, soil and slope) on ecosystem functions. Xingshan County is rich in forest resources, covering 50.64% of total land area in the county. In this study, we referred to ecosystem goods and services together as ecosystem services. The ecosystem goods include timber, other forest products and forest tour, and produce a direct economic value about 54.23 million RMB in 1997 (RMB: Chinese Currency, 8.3 RMB=US

AN ASSESSMENT OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: WATER FLOW REGULATION AND HYDROELECTRIC POWER PRODUCTION

1). The ecosystem services assessed relate to three aspects: water conservation, soil conservation and gas regulation. Water conservation includes hydrological flow regulation, and water retention and storage. Soil conservation relates to the reduction of land disuse, prevention of silt accretion, decrease of soil deposit, and protection of soil fertility. Gas regulation is by both carbon fixation and oxygen supply. These services provide an indirect economic value of 528.73 million RMB per year based on our estimation. Thus, the total economic value of forest ecosystem services in Xingshan County is estimated to be 582.96 million RMB per year, being a part of actual ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed the spatial distribution of forest capital stock in the county based on the economic values of forest ecosystem service. Our work can contribute to the conservation of the forest ecosystems and effective use of the ecosystem services.