Xianmin Hu

Greenland freshwater pathways in the sub-Arctic Seas from model experiments with passive tracers

Accelerating since the early 1990s, the Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss exerts a significant impact on thermohaline processes in the sub-Arctic seas. Surplus freshwater discharge from Greenland since the 1990s, comparable in volume to the amount of freshwater present during the Great Salinity Anomaly events, could spread and accumulate in the sub-Arctic seas, influencing convective processes there. However, hydrographic observations in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, where the Greenland freshening signal might be expected to propagate, do not show a persistent freshening in the upper ocean during last two decades. This raises the question of where the surplus Greenland freshwater has propagated. In order to investigate the fate, pathways, and propagation rate of Greenland meltwater in the sub-Arctic seas, several numerical experiments using a passive tracer to track the spreading of Greenland freshwater have been conducted as a part of the Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis effort. The models show that Greenland freshwater propagates and accumulates in the sub-Arctic seas, although the models disagree on the amount of tracer propagation into the convective regions. Results highlight the differences in simulated physical mechanisms at play in different models and underscore the continued importance of intercomparison studies. It is estimated that surplus Greenland freshwater flux should have caused a salinity decrease by 0.06–0.08 in the sub-Arctic seas in contradiction with the recently observed salinification (by 0.15–0.2) in the region. It is surmised that the increasing salinity of Atlantic Water has obscured the freshening signal.

Changes to the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Sea Ice and Freshwater Fluxes in the Twenty-First Century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B Climate Scenario

Abstract A coupled ocean and sea-ice pan-Arctic model forced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B climate scenario is used to study the evolution of ice and ocean surface conditions within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) during the twenty-first century. A summer ice-free CAA is likely by the end of our simulation. Sea ice undergoes significant changes from the mid-2020s to the mid-2060s in both concentration and thickness. The simulation shows a shrinking of 65% and a thinning of 75% in summer over the 40 years, resulting in a partially open Northwest Passage by the 2050s. However, ice in central Parry Channel might increase due to a decrease in export from April to June, linked to a reduced cross-channel sea surface height (SSH) gradient, before melting thermodynamically. On a larger scale, the central CAA throughflow will experience a significant decrease in both volume and freshwater transport after 2020, which is related to the change in the SSH difference between the two ends of Parry Channel, particularly the lifting of SSH in Baffin Bay. With a lower albedo, a warmer ocean is simulated, particularly in summer. The sea surface salinity within the CAA demonstrates a strong decadal oscillation without a clear trend over the entire simulation. A north–south pattern, separated by Parry Channel, is also found in the changes of ocean temperature and salinity fields due to different ice conditions.

Meltwater pathways from marine terminating glaciers of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) stores the largest amount of freshwater in the northern hemisphere and has been recently losing mass at an increasing rate. An eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model is forced with realistic estimates of freshwater flux from the GrIS. Two approaches are used to track the meltwater and its trajectory in the ocean. We show that freshwater from western and eastern GrIS have markedly different fates, on a decadal timescale. Freshwater from west Greenland predominantly accumulates in Baffin Bay before being exported south down the Labrador shelf. Meanwhile, GrIS freshwater entering the interior of the Labrador Sea, where deep convection occurs, comes predominantly (∼80%) from east Greenland. Therefore, hosing experiments, which generally assume a uniform freshwater flux spatially, will not capture the true hydrographic response and regional impacts. In addition, narrow boundary currents are important for freshwater transport and distribution, requiring simulations with eddy-resolving resolution.

Potential positive feedback between Greenland Ice Sheet melt and Baffin Bay heat content on the west Greenland shelf

Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff has been increasing in recent decades, especially in the southwest and the northeast. To determine the impact of this accelerating meltwater flux on Baffin Bay, we examine eight numerical experiments using an ocean-sea ice model: Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean. Enhanced runoff causes shoreward increasing sea surface height and strengthens the stratification in Baffin Bay. The changes in sea surface height reduces the southward transport through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and strengthens the gyre circulation within Baffin Bay. The latter leads to further freshening of surface waters as it produces a larger northward surface freshwater transport across Davis Strait. Increasing the meltwater runoff leads to a warming and shallowing of the west Greenland Irminger water on the northwest Greenland shelf. These warmer waters can now more easily enter fjords on the Greenland coast and thus provide additional heat to accelerate the melting of marine-terminating glaciers.

Water mass modification and mixing rates in a 1/12° simulation of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Strong spatial differences in diapycnal mixing across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago are diagnosed in a 1/12° basin-scale model. Changes in mass flux between water flowing into or out of several regions are analyzed using a volume-integrated advection–diffusion equation, and focus is given to denser water, the direct advective flux of which is mediated by sills. The unknown in the mass budget, mixing strength, is a quantity seldom explored in other studies of the Archipelago, which typically focus on fluxes. Regionally averaged diapycnal diffusivities and buoyancy fluxes are up to an order of magnitude larger in the eastern half of the Archipelago relative to those in the west. Much of the elevated mixing is concentrated near sills in Queens Channel and Barrow Strait, with stronger mixing particularly evident in the net shifts of the densest water to lower densities as it traverses these constrictions. Associated with these shifts are areally averaged buoyancy fluxes up to 10−8 m2 s−3 through the 1027 kg m−3 isopycnal surface, which lies at approximately 100 m depth. This value is similar in strength to the destabilizing buoyancy flux at the ocean surface during winter. Effective diffusivities estimated from the buoyancy fluxes can exceed 10−4 m2 s−1, but are often closer to 10−5 m2 s−1 across the Archipelago. Tidal forcing, known to modulate mixing in the Archipelago, is not included in the model. Nevertheless, mixing metrics derived from our simulation are of the same order of magnitude as the few comparable observations.

Evolution of Baffin Bay Water Masses and Transports in a Numerical Sensitivity Experiment under Enhanced Greenland Melt

ABSTRACT We used a numerical model forced with three different scenarios to analyze Baffin Bay circulation sensitivity to runoff around Baffin Bay, especially the Greenland runoff, for the past (1970–2010) and future (2010–2099). We observed an overall decrease in transport from the Arctic to the North Atlantic for the volume, heat, and freshwater over the time period as well as an augmentation of the freshwater and heat in Baffin Bay. In the early 1990s, the increase in heat in Baffin Bay was consistent with an increase in the West Greenland Irminger Water (WGIW) inflow at Davis Strait while later West Greenland Shelf Water played an important role in the heat import, sustaining the idea that the West Greenland Current might have an impact on the melt of West Greenland tidewater glaciers. The increase in freshwater and later in heat in Baffin Bay leads to changes in the steric height inside Baffin Bay, which leads to changes in the circulation. After 1978, the WGIW reaches the North Water polynya and recirculates into the Baffin Bay gyre where it accumulates over time. In the future experiment, the dynamic changes in Baffin Bay are mainly related to the accumulation of heat inside the gyre.

Cascading off the West Greenland Shelf: A numerical perspective

Cascading of dense water from the shelf to deeper layers of the adjacent ocean basin has been observed in several locations around the world. The West Greenland Shelf (WGS), however, is a region where this process has never been documented. In this study, we use a numerical model with a 1/4° resolution to determine (i) if cascading could happen from the WGS; (ii) where and when it could take place; (iii) the forcings that induce or halt this process; and (iv) the path of the dense plume. Results show cascading happening off the WGS at Davis Strait. Dense waters form there due to brine rejection and slide down the slope during spring. Once the dense plume leaves the shelf, it gradually mixes with waters of similar density and moves northward into Baffin Bay. Our simulation showed events happening between 2003-2006 and during 2014; but no plume was observed in the simulation between 2007-2013. We suggest that the reason why cascading was halted in this period is related to: the increased freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait; the additional sea ice melting in the region; and the reduced presence of Irminger Water at Davis Strait during fall/early winter. Although observations at Davis Strait show that our simulation usually overestimates the seasonal range of temperature and salinity, they agree with the overall variability captured by the model. This suggests that cascades have the potential to develop on the WGS, albeit less dense than the ones estimated by the simulation.