Xiao-Feng Li

Recent Summer Rainfall Increase and Surface Cooling over Northern Australia since the Late 1970s: A Response to Warming in the Tropical Western Pacific

AbstractRainfall over northern Australia (NA) in austral summer is the largest water source of Australia. Previous studies have suggested a strong zonal-dipole trend pattern in austral summer rainfall since 1950, with rainfall increasing in northwest Australia (NWA) but decreasing in northeast Australia (NEA). The dynamics of rainfall increase in NWA was linked to sea surface temperature (SST) in the south Indian Ocean and the rainfall decrease in NEA was associated with SST in the northeast Indian Ocean.This study reports that, in contrast to a zonal-dipole trend pattern, a dominant wetting pattern over NA has recently been observed in the post-1979 satellite era. The recent NA rainfall increase also manifests as the first leading mode of summer rainfall variability over the Australian continent. Further investigation reveals that SST in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) has replaced the SST in the south and northeast Indian Ocean as the controlling factor responsible for the recent NA rainfall increase...

Cross-Seasonal Influence of the December–February Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on March–May Meridional Circulation and Precipitation

AbstractNew evidence suggests that interannual variability in zonal-mean meridional circulation and precipitation can be partially attributed to the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. A cross-seasonal correlation exists between the December–February (DJF) SAM and March–May (MAM) zonal-mean meridional circulation and precipitation. This correlation is not confined to the SH: it also extends to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) subtropics. When the preceding DJF SAM is positive, counterclockwise, and clockwise meridional cells, accompanied by less and more precipitation, occur alternately between the SH middle latitudes and NH subtropics in MAM. In particular, less precipitation occurs in the SH middle latitudes, the SH tropics, and the NH subtropics, but more precipitation occurs in the SH subtropics and the NH tropics. A framework is built to explain the cross-seasonal impact of SAM-related SST anomalies. Evidence indic...

Recent Winter Precipitation Increase in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Valley since the Late 1970s: A Response to Warming in the Tropical Indian Ocean

Themiddle‐lower valleyofthe YangtzeRiver(MLY),locatedin the middleofeasternChina, hasbeen one of the largest economic centers of China since ancient times. Winter precipitation variability over the MLY is important for China because of its significant influence on the local economy. However, few studies have focused on the long-term variability of winter precipitation over the MLY. This study reports a significant wetting trend over the MLY in winter during the three decades since the late 1970s, forming a ‘‘mid-eastChina winter wetting’’ pattern, which has become an important feature of precipitation change under the weakeningEast Asianwintermonsoon.This wetting trendin theMLY alsoimpliesthe polewardextensionof the precipitation belts of southern China. Furtherinvestigation revealsthattheincreasingseasurfacetemperature(SST)inthetropicalIndianOcean (TIO) is the dominant factor responsible for recent increases in precipitation over the MLY. The thermal forcing driven by warming of the TIO SST gives rise to an anomalous cyclonic circulation along the coast of eastern China. This transports more water vapor onto the Chinese mainland, shifts and causes anomalous convergence over the MLY, and generates the increase in precipitation there. As such, the increasing SST in the TIO induces over 80% of the observed wetting trend over the MLY. This mechanism was verified by results obtained from two sets of sensitivity experiments using a numerical spectral atmospheric general circulation model. Thus, increasing SST in the TIO has made a dominant contribution to the recent winter precipitation increase over the MLY.

A Two-way Stratosphere{Troposphere Coupling of Submonthly Zonal-Mean Circulations in the Arctic

This paper examines the dominant submonthly variability of zonally symmetrical atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter within the context of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), with particular emphasis on interactive stratosphere-troposphere processes. The submonthly variability is identified and measured using a daily NAM index, which concentrates primarily on zonally symmetrical circulation. A schematic lifecycle of submonthly variability is developed that reveals a two-way coupling process between the stratosphere and troposphere in the NH polar region. Specifically, anomalous tropospheric zonal winds in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic propagate upwards to the low stratosphere, disturbing the polar vortex, and resulting in an anomalous stratospheric geopotential height (HGT) that subsequently propagates down into the troposphere and changes the sign of the surface circulations.From the standpoint of planetary-scale wave activities, a feedback loop is also evident when the anomalous planetary-scale waves (with wavenumbers 2 and 3) propagate upwards, which disturbs the anomalous zonally symmetrical flow in the low stratosphere, and induces the anomalous HGT to move poleward in the low stratosphere, and then propagates down into the troposphere. This increases the energy of waves at wavenumbers 2 and 3 in the low troposphere in middle latitudes by enhancing the land-sea contrast of the anomalous HGT field. Thus, this study supports the viewpoint that the downward propagation of stratospheric NAM signals may not originate in the stratosphere.

Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes

Temperature scaling studies suggest that hourly rainfall magnitudes might increase beyond thermodynamic expectations with global warming1–3; that is, above the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate of ~6.5% °C−1. However, there is limited evidence of such increases in long-term observations. Here, we calculate continental-average changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme hourly and daily rainfall observations from Australia over the years 1990–2013 and 1966–1989. Observed changes are compared with the uncertainty from natural variability and expected changes from CC scaling as a result of global mean surface temperature change. We show that increases in daily rainfall extremes are consistent with CC scaling, but are within the range of natural variability. In contrast, changes in the magnitude of hourly rainfall extremes are close to or exceed double the expected CC scaling, and are above the range of natural variability, exceeding CC × 3 in the tropical region (north of 23° S). These continental-scale changes in extreme rainfall are not explained by changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation or changes in the seasonality of extremes. Our results indicate that CC scaling on temperature provides a severe underestimate of observed changes in hourly rainfall extremes in Australia, with implications for assessing the impacts of extreme rainfall.Theory predicts that hourly rainfall extremes may increase with anthropogenic warming. Observations from Australia suggest changes two to three times above the Clausius–Clapeyron rate, above that expected from natural variability.

The Karakoram/Western Tibetan vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability

The “Karakoram Vortex” (KV), hereafter also referred to as the “Western Tibetan Vortex” (WTV), has recently been recognized as a large-scale atmospheric circulation system related to warmer (cooler) near-surface and mid-lower troposphere temperatures above the Karakoram in the western Tibetan Plateau (TP). It is characterized by a deep, anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) wind anomaly associated with higher (lower) geopotential height in the troposphere, during winter and summer seasons. In this study, we further investigate the seasonality and basic features of the WTV in all four seasons, and explore its year-to-year variability and influence on regional climate. We find the WTV accounts for the majority of year-to-year circulation variability over the WTP as it can explain over 50% (

Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability

{R^2} \geqslant 0.5

Review of the introduction and debates of the Annular Modes

R2⩾0.5) variance of the WTP circulation on multiple levels throughout the troposphere, which declines towards the eastern side of the TP in most seasons. The WTV is not only more (less) active but also has a bigger (smaller) domain area, with a deeper (shallower) structure, in winter and spring (summer and autumn). We find that the WTV is sensitive to both the location and intensity of the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), but the relationship is highly dependent on the climatological mean location of SWJ axes relative to the TP in different seasons. We also show that the WTV significantly modulates surface and stratospheric air temperatures, north–south precipitation patterns and total column ozone surrounding the western TP. As such, the WTV has important implications for the understanding of atmospheric, hydrological and glaciological variability over the TP.