Xiaofeng Liang

Rapid health transition in China, 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

Summary Background China has undergone rapid demographic and epidemiological changes in the past few decades, including striking declines in fertility and child mortality and increases in life expectancy at birth. Popular discontent with the health system has led to major reforms. To help inform these reforms, we did a comprehensive assessment of disease burden in China, how it changed between 1990 and 2010, and how Chinas health burden compares with other nations. Methods We used results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) for 1990 and 2010 for China and 18 other countries in the G20 to assess rates and trends in mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 231 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to China. We assessed relative performance of China against G20 countries (significantly better, worse, or indistinguishable from the G20 mean) with age-standardised rates and 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings The leading causes of death in China in 2010 were stroke (1·7 million deaths, 95% UI 1·5–1·8 million), ischaemic heart disease (948 700 deaths, 774 500–1 024 600), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (934 000 deaths, 846 600–1 032 300). Age-standardised YLLs in China were lower in 2010 than all emerging economies in the G20, and only slightly higher than noted in the USA. China had the lowest age-standardised YLD rate in the G20 in 2010. China also ranked tenth (95% UI eighth to tenth) for HALE and 12th (11th to 13th) for life expectancy. YLLs from neonatal causes, infectious diseases, and injuries in children declined substantially between 1990 and 2010. Mental and behavioural disorders, substance use disorders, and musculoskeletal disorders were responsible for almost half of all YLDs. The fraction of DALYs from YLDs rose from 28·1% (95% UI 24·2–32·5) in 1990 to 39·4% (34·9–43·8) in 2010. Leading causes of DALYs in 2010 were cardiovascular diseases (stroke and ischaemic heart disease), cancers (lung and liver cancer), low back pain, and depression. Dietary risk factors, high blood pressure, and tobacco exposure are the risk factors that constituted the largest number of attributable DALYs in China. Ambient air pollution ranked fourth (third to fifth; the second highest in the G20) and household air pollution ranked fifth (fourth to sixth; the third highest in the G20) in terms of the age-standardised DALY rate in 2010. Interpretation The rapid rise of non-communicable diseases driven by urbanisation, rising incomes, and ageing poses major challenges for Chinas health system, as does a shift to chronic disability. Reduction of population exposures from poor diet, high blood pressure, tobacco use, cholesterol, and fasting blood glucose are public policy priorities for China, as are the control of ambient and household air pollution. These changes will require an integrated government response to improve primary care and undertake required multisectoral action to tackle key risks. Analyses of disease burden provide a useful framework to guide policy responses to the changing disease spectrum in China. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Epidemiological serosurvey of Hepatitis B in China-Declining HBV prevalence due to Hepatitis B vaccination

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs), and hepatitis B core anti-body (anti-HBc) in a representative population in China 14 years after introduction of hepatitis B vaccination of infants. METHODS National serosurvey, with participants selected by multi-stage random sampling. Demographics and hepatitis B vaccination history collected by questionnaire and review of vaccination records, and serum tested for HBsAg, antibody to anti-HBc and anti-HBs by ELISA. FINDINGS The weighted prevalences of HBsAg, anti-HBs and anti-HBc for Chinese population aged 1-59 years were 7.2%, 50.1%, 34.1%, respectively. HBsAg prevalence was greatly diminished among those age <15 years compared to that found in the 1992 national serosurvey, and among children age <5 years was only 1.0% (90% reduction). Reduced HBsAg prevalence was strongly associated with vaccination among all age groups. HBsAg risk in adults was associated with male sex, Western region, and certain ethnic groups and occupations while risk in children included birth at home or smaller hospitals, older age, and certain ethnic groups (Zhuang and other). CONCLUSIONS China has already reached the national goal of reducing HBsAg prevalence to less than 1% among children under 5 years and has prevented an estimated 16-20 million HBV carriers through hepatitis B vaccination of infants. Immunization program should be further strengthened to reach those remaining at highest risk.

Cause-specific mortality for 240 causes in China during 1990–2013: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND China has experienced a remarkable epidemiological and demographic transition during the past three decades. Far less is known about this transition at the subnational level. Timely and accurate assessment of the provincial burden of disease is needed for evidence-based priority setting at the local level in China. METHODS Following the methods of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we have systematically analysed all available demographic and epidemiological data sources for China at the provincial level. We developed methods to aggregate county-level surveillance data to inform provincial-level analysis, and we used local data to develop specific garbage code redistribution procedures for China. We assessed levels of and trends in all-cause mortality, causes of death, and years of life lost (YLL) in all 33 province-level administrative units in mainland China, all of which we refer to as provinces, for the years between 1990 and 2013. FINDINGS All provinces in mainland China have made substantial strides to improve life expectancy at birth between 1990 and 2013. Increases ranged from 4.0 years in Hebei province to 14.2 years in Tibet. Improvements in female life expectancy exceeded those in male life expectancy in all provinces except Shanghai, Macao, and Hong Kong. We saw significant heterogeneity among provinces in life expectancy at birth and probability of death at ages 0-14, 15-49, and 50-74 years. Such heterogeneity is also present in cause of death structures between sexes and provinces. From 1990 to 2013, leading causes of YLLs changed substantially. In 1990, 16 of 33 provinces had lower respiratory infections or preterm birth complications as the leading causes of YLLs. 15 provinces had cerebrovascular disease and two (Hong Kong and Macao) had ischaemic heart disease. By 2013, 27 provinces had cerebrovascular disease as the leading cause, five had ischaemic heart disease, and one had lung cancer (Hong Kong). Road injuries have become a top ten cause of death in all provinces in mainland China. The most common non-communicable diseases, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and cancers (liver, stomach, and lung), contributed much more to YLLs in 2013 compared with 1990. INTERPRETATION Rapid transitions are occurring across China, but the leading health problems and the challenges imposed on the health system by epidemiological and demographic change differ between groups of Chinese provinces. Localised health policies need to be implemented to tackle the diverse challenges faced by local health-care systems. FUNDING China National Science & Technology Pillar Program 2013 (2013BAI04B02) and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Evaluation of the Impact of Hepatitis B Vaccination among Children Born during 1992–2005 in China

BACKGROUND Endemic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious health problem in China. Hepatitis B vaccination of infants was introduced in 1992 and was progressively expanded during the subsequent 15 years. METHODS We conducted a national serosurvey, with participants selected by multiple-stage random sampling. Demographic characteristics and hepatitis B vaccination history were collected by a questionnaire and a review of vaccination records, and serum specimens were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen, antibody to hepatitis B core antigen, and hepatitis B surface antibody by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS Hepatitis B vaccine coverage (3 doses) increased from 30.0% for children born in 1992 to 93.4% for children born in 2005. Receipt of a timely birth dose increased from 22.2% to 82.6% for children born during this interval. Multivariate analysis showed that older age, western and rural residence, birth at home, and certain ethnicities were risk factors for under vaccination with both full vaccine series and timely birth dose. The prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen was reduced to 2.1% among all children and 1.0% among children born after 1999. The efficacy of hepatitis B vaccination with a timely birth dose was 88.3%. CONCLUSIONS Hepatitis B vaccine has been successfully integrated into routine infant immunization in China, now reaching most infants within 24 h after birth, and the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen has been greatly reduced among children born after 1992.

An Outbreak of Poliomyelitis Caused by Type 1 Vaccine-Derived Poliovirus in China

BACKGROUND In May-July 2004, type 1 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) was isolated from 2 case patients with polio and a contact of a third case patient in Guizhou Province. METHODS We conducted a field investigation of the outbreak, characterized outbreak isolates, and retrospectively reviewed national polio surveillance data for other VDPVs. RESULTS Case patients were unimmunized children, 0.9-3.2 years old, living in 2 villages 40 km apart. Immunization coverage in the affected villages was very low. Isolates differed from the Sabin 1 type by 9-11 VP1 nucleotides (1.0%-1.2%); which indicated, on the basis of known rates of mutation of Sabin strains, that they had been circulating for <1 year. A province-wide immunization response targeting all children <5 years old was initiated in August, and the strain has not been isolated since. During 1997-2004, 10 VDPV strains (5 of type 2, 3 of type 1, and 2 of type 3) were isolated from >50,000 children with acute flaccid paralysis and their contacts; 8 (80%) were found in southern provinces, and 9 (90%) spontaneously disappeared. CONCLUSION This is the first polio outbreak in China in over a decade and the first due to VDPV. The short duration of circulation demonstrates the rapidity with which attenuated Sabin strains can revert to a wild phenotype. One to two VDPVs have been identified each year, primarily in densely populated subtropical regions of southern China. This outbreak highlights the need to consider risks of paralysis from vaccine-derived strains in development of national poliomyelitis immunization policy.

Distribution and Hepatocellular Carcinoma–Related Viral Properties of Hepatitis B Virus Genotypes in Mainland China: A Community-Based Study

Introduction: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes, replication status, and mutations have been associated with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim was to study the distribution and HCC-related viral properties of HBV genotypes/subgenotypes in Mainland China. Methods: A multistage cluster probability sampling method was applied to select 81,775 participants between 1 and 59 years at 160 national disease surveillance points. We examined hepatitis B surface antigen, HBV genotypes and subgenotypes, hepatitis B e antigen, viral load, and mutations in the PreS and core promoter regions of HBV genome. Results: HBV subgenotypes B2 (27.3%), C1 (10.7%), and C2 (58.0%) were predominant. Genotype D (D1, 80.8%) was frequent in the Uygur. We identified a new subgenotype, C9, mainly in Tibetans. Compositions of subgenotypes B2 and C1 and genotype mixture increased from the North to Central South, which was consistently associated with the increasing prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen. Hepatitis B e antigen positivity and viral loads were higher in the young with genotype B and declined more rapidly with increasing age than those with genotype C. In contrast to G1896A, PreS deletion, T31C, T1753V, and A1762T/G1764A were more frequent in subgenotype C2 than in subgenotype B2. A1762T/G1764A, T1753V, C1653T, and G1896A, except PreS deletion, consecutively increased with increasing age. Conclusion: HBV subgenotypes B2, C1, and C2 are endemic in Mainland China. HBV genotype C exhibits less replication activity in the young and harbors higher frequencies of the HCC-associated mutations than genotype B. Impact: These basic data could help evaluate the association of HBV variations with HCC. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 19(3); 777–86

Monitoring progress towards the elimination of measles in China: an analysis of measles surveillance data

OBJECTIVE To analyse the epidemiology of measles in China and determine the progress made towards the national elimination of the disease. METHODS We analysed measles surveillance data - on the age, sex, residence and vaccination status of each case and the corresponding outcome, dates of onset and report and laboratory results - collected between January 2005 and October 2013. FINDINGS Between 2005 and October 2013, 596 391 measles cases and 368 measles-related deaths were reported in China. Annual incidence, in cases per 100 000 population, decreased from 9.95 in 2008 to 0.46 in 2012 but then rose to more than 1.96 in 2013. The number of provinces that reported an annual incidence of less than one case per million population increased from one in 2009 to 15 in 2012 but fell back to one in 2013. Median case age decreased from 83 months in 2005 to 14 months in 2012 and 11 months in January to October 2013. Between 2008 and 2012, the incidence of measles in all age groups, including those not targeted for vaccination, decreased by at least 93.6%. However, resurgence started in late 2012 and continued into 2013. Of the cases reported in January to October 2013, 40% were aged 8 months to 6 years. CONCLUSION Although there is evidence of progress towards the elimination of measles from China, resurgence in 2013 indicated that many children were still not being vaccinated on time. Routine immunization must be strengthened and the remaining immunity gaps need to be identified and filled.

Progress Toward Measles Elimination in the People's Republic of China, 2000–2009

In 2006, China set a goal of measles elimination by 2012. To describe progress toward this goal, we reviewed relevant policies and strategies and analyzed national data for 2000-2009. In response to implementation of these strategies, including increased routine measles vaccination coverage and province-specific supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), reported measles incidence decreased to a historically low level of 39.5 cases per million in 2009. A synchronized nationwide SIA was scheduled in 2010 to further decrease susceptibility to measles. However, reaching and maintaining measles elimination will require strong political commitment and efforts for strengthening surveillance, increasing 2-dose vaccine coverage to >95%, stricter enforcement of the requirement to check immunization status at school entry, and careful attention to measles susceptibility in those aged ≥15 years.

The role of the China Experts Advisory Committee on Immunization Program

The Experts Advisory Committee on Immunization Program (EACIP) of China was founded in 1982, and currently consists of 33 experts in immunization and related fields, selected by the Ministry of Health, to provide advice and guidance on the control of vaccine-preventable diseases. The main tasks of the EACIP are to advise on the national immunization schedule, to participate in the drafting and review of technical documents, and to participate in field supervision and staff training. In 2007, the EACIP used evidence-based methods to formulate a revised national immunization schedule. The EACIP has played and is playing an increasingly important role in guiding immunization policy in China.

Factors associated with effectiveness of the first dose of hepatitis B vaccine in China: 1992-2005.

BACKGROUND In China, the prevalence of chronic hepatitis B infection was high because of perinatal and early childhood transmission. A three-dose hepatitis B vaccine schedule with a first dose as soon as possible after birth was introduced in 1992 and generalized in 2002 in the Expanded Programme of Immunization (EPI). In 2006, a serological survey evaluated the effectiveness of vaccination. METHODS We conducted a restricted analysis of the national serological survey that sampled children and collected information on demographic characteristics, birth history, hepatitis B vaccination and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) status as determined by ELISA testing. We compared children who received the first dose in a timely way (i.e., within 24h of birth) with others in terms of HBsAg status, stratified by birth cohort and place of birth. RESULTS Three-dose hepatitis B vaccine coverage increased from 60.8% for children born in 1992-1997 to 93.2% for children born in 2002-2005. Meanwhile, timely birth dose coverage increased from 38.7% to 74.4%. Among 29,410 children born in 1992-2005 who had received three vaccine doses and no hepatitis B immune globulin, factors associated with being HBsAg-negative in multivariate analysis included receiving a timely birth dose (p=0.04), birth after 1998 (p<0.001), living in an urban setting (p=0.008) and hospital birth (p=0.001). The relative prevalence of HBsAg among children receiving the timely birth dose was lower for children born in county or larger hospitals (0.39), intermediate in township hospitals (0.73) and highest at home (0.87). CONCLUSIONS Hospital birth and receiving a timely birth dose are the main determinants of the field effectiveness of the first dose of hepatitis B vaccine. Efforts to increase the proportion of hospital deliveries are key to increasing timely birth dose coverage and its effectiveness.