Xiaohui Zhuo

Trends in lifetime risk and years of life lost due to diabetes in the USA, 1985-2011: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND Diabetes incidence has increased and mortality has decreased greatly in the USA, potentially leading to substantial changes in the lifetime risk of diabetes. We aimed to provide updated estimates for the lifetime risk of development of diabetes and to assess the effect of changes in incidence and mortality on lifetime risk and life-years lost to diabetes in the USA. METHODS We incorporated data about diabetes incidence from the National Health Interview Survey, and linked data about mortality from 1985 to 2011 for 598 216 adults, into a Markov chain model to estimate remaining lifetime diabetes risk, years spent with and without diagnosed diabetes, and life-years lost due to diabetes in three cohorts: 1985-89, 1990-99, and 2000-11. Diabetes was determined by self-report and was classified as any diabetes, excluding gestational diabetes. We used logistic regression to estimate the incidence of diabetes and Poisson regression to estimate mortality. FINDINGS On the basis of 2000-11 data, lifetime risk of diagnosed diabetes from age 20 years was 40·2% (95% CI 39·2-41·3) for men and 39·6% (38·6-40·5) for women, representing increases of 20 percentage points and 13 percentage points, respectively, since 1985-89. The highest lifetime risks were in Hispanic men and women, and non-Hispanic black women, for whom lifetime risk now exceeds 50%. The number of life-years lost to diabetes when diagnosed at age 40 years decreased from 7·7 years (95% CI 6·5-9·0) in 1990-99 to 5·8 years (4·6-7·1) in 2000-11 in men, and from 8·7 years (8·4-8·9) to 6·8 years (6·7-7·0) in women over the same period. Because of the increasing diabetes prevalence, the average number of years lost due to diabetes for the population as a whole increased by 46% in men and 44% in women. Years spent with diabetes increased by 156% in men and 70% in women. INTERPRETATION Continued increases in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes combined with declining mortality have led to an acceleration of lifetime risk and more years spent with diabetes, but fewer years lost to the disease for the average individual with diabetes. These findings mean that there will be a continued need for health services and extensive costs to manage the disease, and emphasise the need for effective interventions to reduce incidence. FUNDING None.

The Effect of Lifestyle Intervention and Metformin on Preventing or Delaying Diabetes Among Women With and Without Gestational Diabetes: The Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study 10-Year Follow-Up

CONTEXT Gestational diabetes (GDM) confers a high risk of type 2 diabetes. In the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP), intensive lifestyle (ILS) and metformin prevented or delayed diabetes in women with a history of GDM. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of ILS and metformin intervention over 10 years in women with and without a history of GDM in the DPP/Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study. DESIGN This was a randomized controlled clinical trial with an observational follow-up. SETTING The study was conducted at 27 clinical centers. PARTICIPANTS Three hundred fifty women with a history of GDM and 1416 women with previous live births but no history of GDM participated in the study. The participants had an elevated body mass index and fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance at study entry. INTERVENTIONS Interventions included placebo, ILS, or metformin. OUTCOMES MEASURE Outcomes measure was diabetes mellitus. RESULTS Over 10 years, women with a history of GDM assigned to placebo had a 48% higher risk of developing diabetes compared with women without a history of GDM. In women with a history of GDM, ILS and metformin reduced progression to diabetes compared with placebo by 35% and 40%, respectively. Among women without a history of GDM, ILS reduced the progression to diabetes by 30%, and metformin did not reduce the progression to diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Women with a history of GDM are at an increased risk of developing diabetes. In women with a history of GDM in the DPP/Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study, both lifestyle and metformin were highly effective in reducing progression to diabetes during a 10-year follow-up period. Among women without a history of GDM, lifestyle but not metformin reduced progression to diabetes.

Medical Costs of CKD in the Medicare Population

Estimates of the medical costs associated with different stages of CKD are needed to assess the economic benefits of interventions that slow the progression of kidney disease. We combined laboratory data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey with expenditure data from Medicare claims to estimate the Medicare programs annual costs that were attributable to CKD stage 1-4. The Medicare costs for persons who have stage 1 kidney disease were not significantly different from zero. Per person annual Medicare expenses attributable to CKD were

Lifetime Direct Medical Costs of Treating Type 2 Diabetes and Diabetic Complications

1700 for stage 2,

The Lifetime Cost of Diabetes and Its Implications for Diabetes Prevention

3500 for stage 3, and

A Nationwide Community-Based Lifestyle Program Could Delay Or Prevent Type 2 Diabetes Cases And Save

12,700 for stage 4, adjusted to 2010 dollars. Our findings suggest that the medical costs attributable to CKD are substantial among Medicare beneficiaries, even during the early stages; moreover, costs increase as disease severity worsens. These cost estimates may facilitate the assessment of the net economic benefits of interventions that prevent or slow the progression of CKD.

5.7 Billion In 25 Years

BACKGROUND Lifetime direct medical cost of treating type 2 diabetes and diabetic complications in the U.S. is unknown. PURPOSE This study provides nationally representative estimates of lifetime direct medical costs of treating type 2 diabetes and diabetic complications in people newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, by gender and by age at diagnosis. METHODS A type 2 diabetes simulation model was used to simulate the disease progression and direct medical costs among a cohort of newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients. The study sample used for the simulation was based on data from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey. The costs of treating type 2 diabetes and diabetic complications were derived from published literature. Annual medical costs were accumulated over the life span of type 2 diabetes to determine the lifetime medical costs. All costs were calculated from a healthcare system perspective, and expressed in 2012 dollars. RESULTS In men diagnosed with type 2 diabetes at ages 25-44 years, 45-54 years, 55-64 years, and ≥ 65 years, the lifetime direct medical costs of treating type 2 diabetes and diabetic complications were

Change in Medical Spending Attributable to Diabetes: National Data From 1987 to 2011

124,700,

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Microalbuminuria among African Americans

106,200,

Alternative HbA1c Cutoffs to Identify High-Risk Adults for Diabetes Prevention: A Cost-Effectiveness Perspective

84,000, and