Xiaoqing Hao

Analyzing the International Exergy Flow Network of Ferrous Metal Ores

This paper employs an un-weighted and weighted exergy network to study the properties of ferrous metal ores in countries worldwide and their evolution from 2002 to 2012. We find that there are few countries controlling most of the ferrous metal ore exports in terms of exergy and that the entire exergy flow network is becoming more heterogeneous though the addition of new nodes. The increasing of the average clustering coefficient indicates that the formation of an international exergy flow system and regional integration is improving. When we contrast the average out strength of exergy and the average out strength of currency, we find both similarities and differences. Prices are affected largely by human factors; thus, the growth rate of the average out strength of currency has fluctuated acutely in the eleven years from 2002 to 2012. Exergy is defined as the maximum work that can be extracted from a system and can reflect the true cost in the world, and this parameter fluctuates much less. Performing an analysis based on the two aspects of exergy and currency, we find that the network is becoming uneven.

The Multiscale Conformation Evolution of the Financial Time Series

Fluctuations of the nonlinear time series are driven by the traverses of multiscale conformations from one state to another. Aiming to characterize the evolution of multiscale conformations with changes in time and frequency domains, we present an algorithm that combines the wavelet transform and the complex network. Based on defining the multiscale conformation using a set of fluctuation states from different frequency components at each time point rather than the single observable value, we construct the conformational evolution complex network. To illustrate, using data of Shanghai’s composition index with daily frequency from 1991 to 2014 as an example, we find that a few major conformations are the main contributors of evolution progress, the whole conformational evolution network has a clustering effect, and there is a turning point when the size of the chain of multiscale conformations is 14. This work presents a refined perspective into underlying fluctuation features of financial markets.

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.