Xingrong Shen

Association Between Pancreatitis and Subsequent Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: a Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

This study aimed to summarize published epidemiological evidence for the relationship between pancreatitis and subsequent risk of pancreatic cancer (PC). We searched Medline and Embase for epidemiological studies published by February 5th, 2014 examining the risk of PC in pancreatitis patients using highly inclusive algorithms. Information about first author, year of publication, country of study, recruitment period, type of pancreatitis, study design, sample size, source of controls and attained age of subjects were extracted by two researchers and Stata 11.0 was used to perform the statistical analyses and examine publication bias. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with the random effects model. A total of 17 articles documenting 3 cohort and 14 case-control studies containing 14,667 PC cases and 17,587 pancreatitis cases were included in this study. The pooled OR between pancreatitis and PC risk was 7.05 (95%CI: 6.42-7.75). However, the pooled ORs of case-control and cohort studies were 4.62 (95%CI: 4.08-5.22) and 16.3 (95%CI: 14.3-18.6) respectively. The risk of PC was the highest in patients with chronic pancreatitis (pooled OR=10.35; 95%CI: 9.13-11.75), followed by unspecified type of pancreatitis (pooled OR=6.41; 95%CI: 4.93-8.34), both acute and chronic pancreatitis (pooled OR=6.13; 95%CI: 5.00-7.52), and acute pancreatitis (pooled OR=2.12; 95%CI: 1.59-2.83). The pooled OR of PC in pancreatitis cases diagnosed within 1 year was the highest (pooled OR=23.3; 95%CI: 14.0-38.9); and the risk in subjects diagnosed with pancreatitis for no less than 2, 5 and 10 years were 3.03 (95%CI: 2.41-3.81), 2.82 (95%CI: 2.12-3.76) and 2.25 (95%CI: 1.59-3.19) respectively. Pancreatitis, especially chronic pancreatitis, was associated with a significantly increased risk of PC; and the risk decreased with increasing duration since diagnosis of pancreatitis.

A Smart Web Aid for Preventing Diabetes in Rural China: Preliminary Findings and Lessons

Background Increasing cases of diabetes, a general lack of routinely operational prevention, and a long history of separating disease prevention and treatment call for immediate engagement of frontier clinicians. This applies especially to village doctors who work in rural China where the majority of the nation’s vast population lives. Objective This study aims to develop and test an online Smart Web Aid for Preventing Type 2 Diabetes (SWAP-DM2) capable of addressing major barriers to applying proven interventions and integrating diabetes prevention into routine medical care. Methods Development of SWAP-DM2 used evolutionary prototyping. The design of the initial system was followed by refinement cycles featuring dynamic interaction between development of practical and effective standardized operation procedures (SOPs) for diabetes prevention and Web-based assistance for implementing the SOPs. The resulting SOPs incorporated proven diabetes prevention practices in a synergetic way. SWAP-DM2 provided support to village doctors ranging from simple educational webpages and record maintenance to relatively sophisticated risk scoring and personalized counseling. Evaluation of SWAP-DM2 used data collected at baseline and 6-month follow-up assessment: (1) audio recordings of service encounters; (2) structured exit surveys of patients’ knowledge, self-efficacy, and satisfaction; (3) measurement of fasting glucose, body mass index, and blood pressure; and (4) qualitative interviews with doctors and patients. Data analysis included (1) descriptive statistics of patients who received SWAP-DM2–assisted prevention and those newly diagnosed with prediabetes and diabetes; (2) comparison of the variables assessed between baseline and follow-up assessment; and (3) narratives of qualitative data. Results The 17 participating village doctors identified 2219 patients with elevated diabetes risk. Of these, 84.85% (1885/2219) consented to a fasting glucose test with 1022 new prediabetes and 113 new diabetes diagnoses made within 6 months. The prediabetic patients showed substantial improvement from baseline to 6-month follow-up in vegetable intake (17.0%, 43/253 vs 88.7%, 205/231), calorie intake (1.6%, 4/253 vs 71.4%, 165/231), leisure-time exercises (6.3%, 16/253 vs 21.2%, 49/231), body weight (mean 62.12 kg, SD 9.85 vs mean 58.33 kg, SD 9.18), and body mass index (mean 24.80 kg/m2, SD 3.21 vs mean 23.36 kg/m2, SD 2.95). The prediabetic patients showed improvement in self-efficacy for modifying diet (mean 5.31, SD 2.81 vs mean 8.53, SD 2.25), increasing physical activities (mean 4.52, SD 3.35 vs mean 8.06, SD 2.38), engaging relatives (mean 3.93, SD 3.54 vs mean 6.93, SD 2.67), and knowledge about diabetes and risks of an imbalanced diet and inadequate physical activity. Most participating doctors and patients viewed SWAP-DM2 as useful and effective. Conclusions SWAP-DM2 is helpful to village doctors, acceptable to patients, and effective in modifying immediate determinants of diabetes at least in the short term, and may provide a useful solution to the general lack of participation in diabetes prevention by frontier clinicians in rural China. Trial Registration International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 66772711; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN66772711 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6OMkAqyEy).

Association of Risk of Gastric Cancer and Consumption of Tobacco, Alcohol and Tea in the Chinese Population

This study aimed at summarizing epidemiological research findings on associations between tobacco, alcohol and tea consumption and risk of gastric cancer (GC) in the Chinese population. The review searched PubMed, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and China Biology Medicine (CBM) databases and reference lists of review papers for all studies published in English or Chinese languages. Information extracted, via two independent researchers, from retrieved articles included first author, year of publication, study design, sample size, source of controls and adjusted odds ratio (OR) or relative risk (RR) with the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each category. Statistical analyses used software STATA version 12.0. The systematic search found 89 articles containing 25,821 GC cases and 135,298 non-cases. The overall random effects in terms of pooled OR and 95%CI for tobacco, alcohol and tea consumption were 1.62 (95%CI: 1.50-1.74), 1.57 (95%CI: 1.41-1.76) and 0.67 (95%CI: 0.59-0.76) respectively; while the heterogeneity among included studies ranged from 80.1% to 87.5%. The majority of subgroup analyses revealed consistent results with the overall analyses. All three behavioral factors showed statistically significant dose-dependent effects on GC (P<0.05). The study revealed that tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking were associated with over 1/2 added risk of GC, while tea drinking conferred about 1/3 lower risk of GC in the Chinese population. However, these results should be interpreted with caution given the fact that most of the included studies were based on a retrospective design and heterogeneity among studies was relatively high.

Associations of blood pressure with common factors among left-behind farmers in rural China: a cross-sectional study using quantile regression analysis.

Abstract The whole range of blood pressure (BP) has important implications. Yet, published studies focus primarily on hypertension and hypotension, the two extremes of BP continuum. This study aims at exploring quantile-specific associations of BP with common factors. The study used cross-sectional survey, collected information about gender, age, education, body mass index (BMI), alcohol intake, diet risk behavior, life event index, physical activity, fasting capillary glucose (FCG), and systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) and pulse pressure (PP) from farmers living in 18 villages from rural Anhui, China, and performed descriptive and multivariate and quantile regression (QR) analysis of associations of SBP, DBP, or PP with the 9 factors surveyed. A total of 4040 (86.3%) eligible farmers completed the survey. Average hypertension prevalence rate and SBP, DBP, and PP values estimated 43.20 ± 0.50% and 141.37 ± 21.98, 87.76 ± 12.23, and 53.63 ± 15.72 mm Hg, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that all the 9 factors were significantly (P < 0.05) associated with one or more of SBP, DBP, and PP. QR coefficients of SBP, DBP, or PP with different factors demonstrated divergent patterns and age, BMI, FCG, and life event index showed substantial trends along the quantile axis. Hypertension prevalence rate was high among the farmers. QR modeling provided more detailed view on associations of SBP, DBP, or PP with different factors and uncovered apparent quantile-related patterns for part of the factors. Both the population group studied and the trends in QR coefficients identified merit specific attention.

Modeling Age-specific Cancer Incidences Using Logistic Growth Equations: Implications for Data Collection

Large scale secular registry or surveillance systems have been accumulating vast data that allow mathematical modeling of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Most contemporary models in this regard use time series and APC (age-period-cohort) methods and focus primarily on predicting or analyzing cancer epidemiology with little attention being paid to implications for designing cancer registry, surveillance or evaluation initiatives. This research models age-specific cancer incidence rates using logistic growth equations and explores their performance under different scenarios of data completeness in the hope of deriving clues for reshaping relevant data collection. The study used China Cancer Registry Report 2012 as the data source. It employed 3-parameter logistic growth equations and modeled the age-specific incidence rates of all and the top 10 cancers presented in the registry report. The study performed 3 types of modeling, namely full age-span by fitting, multiple 5-year- segment fitting and single-segment fitting. Measurement of model performance adopted adjusted goodness of fit that combines sum of squred residuals and relative errors. Both model simulation and performance evalation utilized self-developed algorithms programed using C# languade and MS Visual Studio 2008. For models built upon full age-span data, predicted age-specific cancer incidence rates fitted very well with observed values for most (except cervical and breast) cancers with estimated goodness of fit (Rs) being over 0.96. When a given cancer is concerned, the R valuae of the logistic growth model derived using observed data from urban residents was greater than or at least equal to that of the same model built on data from rural people. For models based on multiple-5-year-segment data, the Rs remained fairly high (over 0.89) until 3-fourths of the data segments were excluded. For models using a fixed length single-segment of observed data, the older the age covered by the corresponding data segment, the higher the resulting Rs. Logistic growth models describe age-specific incidence rates perfectly for most cancers and may be used to inform data collection for purposes of monitoring and analyzing cancer epidemic. Helped by appropriate logistic growth equations, the work vomume of contemporary data collection, e.g., cancer registry and surveilance systems, may be reduced substantially.

The relationship between demands for lung cancer screening and the constructs of health belief model: a cross-sectional survey in Hefei, China

Abstract The aim of investigation is to explore the relationship between demands for lung cancer screening (LCS) and the constructs derived from the health belief model (HBM) in Hefei. The study collected data about socio-demographics, health beliefs in and demands for LCS during early June to later July 2015. By constructing a LCS demands HBM constructs, it calculated indices of demands for LCS (DSI) and HBM constructs, which include perceived risk (PR) and seriousness (PS) of the cancers; and perceived effectiveness (PE), benefits (PB) and difficulties (PD) of the screening. It also performed descriptive and multivariate regression analysis of the demands and the HBM constructs. The amount of 823 respondents participated and completed the survey. 6.4% of them had ever undertaken LCS, whereas 60.1% of them expressed willingness to accept the service of LCS if it is free. In multiple regression analysis which used weights in calculating the HBM construct indices, education displayed significant positive associations with DSI (p = .044), and most of HBM constructs indices (PSI, PRI, PBI, and PDI) were statistically significant with DSI (p < .05). HBM-based constructs regarding LCS have important effects on demands for the service, and may provide effective paths to cancer screening promotion.

Psychological factors and demands for breast and cervical cancer screening

OBJECTIVE The study aims to investigate relationships between demands for breast and cervical cancer screening (BCS/CCS) and related health beliefs. METHODS The study used cluster-randomized sampling and collected data about demands for BCS/CCS and constructs of health beliefs model (HBM). It calculated indices of perceived risk and seriousness of the cancers and perceived effectiveness, benefits and difficulties of the screening; and performed descriptive and multivariate regression analysis of the demands and the HBM constructs. RESULTS Less than 23.7% of respondents (N = 805) had ever undertaken BCS/CCS but 62.7% reported willingness to receive the service. Demands for BCS/CCS illustrated negative associations (Beta = -0.11 and -0.10) with age but positive (Beta = 0.15 and 0.11) links with education. The absolute values of standardized regression coefficients between the demand and the HBM constructs added up to 0.69 for BCS and 0.64 for CCS respectively, being 4-40 times that of age and education. CONCLUSIONS Models incorporating all HBM constructs have substantially greater power than commonly researched single factors in explaining BCS/CCS demands. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS Comprehensive BCS/CCS promotion addressing all HBM constructs in a synergetic way may prove to be more effective.

How patients’ experiences of respiratory tract infections affect healthcare-seeking and antibiotic use: insights from a cross-sectional survey in rural Anhui, China

Objective To investigate the occurrence of reported respiratory tract infection (RTI) symptoms and their effects on use of self and professional care among patients in the community. Design A cross-sectional retrospective household survey. Setting 12 administrative villages from rural Anhui, China. Participants 2160 rural adult residents aged ≥18 years registered as rural residents and actually living in the sampled villages when this study was conducted. Method The respondents were recruited using stratified-clustered randomised sampling. A structured questionnaire was deployed to solicit information about social demographics, symptoms of last RTI and healthcare-seeking following the RTI. Descriptive analyses were performed to investigate the reported symptoms, and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to identify relationships between number of concurrent symptoms and healthcare-seeking and antibiotics use. Results A total of 1968 residents completed the survey, resulting in a response rate of 91.1%. The number of concurrent symptoms showed a clear increasing trend with seeking help from clinics and being prescribed antibiotics. Multivariate regression revealed statistically significant associations between the following: (a) visiting clinics and education (OR=0.790), sore throat (OR=1.355), cough (OR=1.492), shortness of breath (OR=1.707) and fever (OR=2.142); (b) buying medicine from shops without prescription and education (OR=1.230) and cough (OR=1.452); (c) getting antibiotics at clinics and sore throat (OR=2.05) and earache and/or tinnitus (OR=4.884); and (d) obtaining antibiotics at medicine shops and productive cough (OR=1.971). Conclusions Reported RTI symptoms play an important role in shaping both patient- and doctor-led responses.

Pathways and cost-effectiveness of routine lung cancer inpatient care in rural Anhui, China: a retrospective cohort study protocol

Introduction Routine inpatient care (RIC) for patients with cancer forms various pathways of clinical procedures. Although most individual procedures comprising the pathways have been tested via clinical trials, little is known about the collective cost and effectiveness of the pathways as a whole. This study aims at exploring RIC pathways for patients with lung cancer from rural Anhui, China, and their determinants and economic impacts. Methods and analysis The study adopts a retrospective cohort design and proceeds in five steps. Step 1 defines the four main categories of study variables, including clinical procedures, direct cost and effectiveness of procedures, and factors affecting use of these procedures and their cost and effectiveness. Step 2 selects a cohort of 5000 patients with lung cancer diagnosed between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2016 from rural Anhui by clustered random sampling. Step 3 retrieves the records of all the inpatient care episodes due to lung cancer and extracts data about RIC procedures, proximate variables (eg, Karnofsky Performance Status, Lung Function Score) of patient outcomes and related factors (eg, stage of cancer, age, gender), by two independent clinician researchers using a web-based form. Step 4 estimates the direct cost of each of the RIC procedures using micro-costing and collects data about ultimate patient outcomes (survival and progression-free survival) through a follow-up survey of patients and/or their close relatives. Step 5 analyses the data collected and explores pathways of RIC procedures and their relations with patient outcomes, costs, cost:effect ratios, and a whole range of clinical and sociodemographic factors using multivariate regression and path models. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol has been approved by an authorised ethics committee of Anhui Medical University (reference number: 20170312). Findings from the study will be disseminated through conventional academic routes such as peer-reviewed publications and presentations at regional, national and international conferences. Trial registration number ISRCTN25595562.

Relationships between stressful life events and impaired fasting glucose among left-behind farmers in rural China

OBJECTIVE This study aims at examining the effects of stressful life events on risk of impaired fasting glucose among left-behind farmers in rural China. METHODS The study collected data about stressful life events, family history of diabetes, lifestyle, demographics and minimum anthropometrics from left-behind famers aged 40-70 years. Calculated life event index was applied to assess the combined effects of stressful life events experienced by the left-behind farmers and its association with impaired fasting glucose was estimated using binary logistic regression models. RESULTS The prevalence of abnormal fasting glucose was 61.4% by American Diabetes Association (ADA) standard and 32.4% by World Health Organization (WHO) standard. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed a coefficient of 0.033 (P<.001) by ADA standard or 0.028 (P<.001) by WHO standard between impaired fasting glucose and life event index. The overall odds ratios of impaired glucose for the second, third and fourth (highest) versus the first (lowest) quartile of life event index were 1.419 [95% CI=(1.173, 1.717)], 1.711 [95% CI=(1.413, 2.071)] and 1.957 [95% CI=(1.606, 2.385)] respectively by ADA standard. When more and more confounding factors were controlled for, these odds ratios remained statistically significant though decreased to a small extent. CONCLUSIONS The left-behind farmers showed over two-fold prevalence rate of pre-diabetes than that of the nations average and their risk of impaired fasting glucose was positively associated with stressful life events in a dose-dependent way. Both the population studied and their life events merit special attention.