Xinhu Li

Geographical Detectors-Based Health Risk Assessment and its Application in the Neural Tube Defects Study of the Heshun Region, China

Physical environment, man‐made pollution, nutrition and their mutual interactions can be major causes of human diseases. These disease determinants have distinct spatial distributions across geographical units, so that their adequate study involves the investigation of the associated geographical strata. We propose four geographical detectors based on spatial variation analysis of the geographical strata to assess the environmental risks of health: the risk detector indicates where the risk areas are; the factor detector identifies factors that are responsible for the risk; the ecological detector discloses relative importance between the factors; and the interaction detector reveals whether the risk factors interact or lead to disease independently. In a real‐world study, the primary physical environment (watershed, lithozone and soil) was found to strongly control the neural tube defects (NTD) occurrences in the Heshun region (China). Basic nutrition (food) was found to be more important than man‐made pollution (chemical fertilizer) in the control of the spatial NTD pattern. Ancient materials released from geological faults and subsequently spread along slopes dramatically increase the NTD risk. These findings constitute valuable input to disease intervention strategies in the region of interest.

Integration of GP and GA for mapping population distribution

Mapping population distribution is an important field of geographical and related research because of the frequent need to combine spatial data representing socio‐demographic information across various incompatible spatial units. However, the research may become very complex and difficult when a population in multiple places is estimated by various factors. Previous efforts in the field have contributed to the selection of appropriate independent variables and the creation of different population models. However, the level of accuracy obtainable with these studies is limited by the spatial heterogeneity of population distribution within the individual census districts, particularly in large rural areas. A high‐accuracy modelling method for population estimation based on integration of Genetic Programming (GP) and Genetic Algorithms (GA) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is presented in this paper. GIS was applied to identify and quantify a set of natural and socioeconomic factors which contributed to population distribution, and then GP and GA were used to build and optimise the population model to automatically transform census population data to regular grids. The study indicated that the proposed method performed much better than the stepwise regression analysis and adapted gravity model methods in estimating the population of both urban and rural areas. More importantly, this proposed method could provide a single, unified approach to mapping population distribution in various areas because the paradigms of these algorithms are general.

Urbanisation and human health in China: spatial features and a systemic perspective

Background, aims and scopeCurrent studies have paid little attention to the dynamism in urban spatial expansion and its possible environmental and health effects or to the health effects of rapid urban environmental change at different points along the urbanisation gradient. This study adopts a public health ecology approach to systematically understand the relationship between urbanisation, urban environmental change and human health in China.MethodRemote sensing image analysis, based on night light data at five different time periods in recent decades, was used to determine changes to the overall urban area. Through a review of the evidence on the relationships between environmental health, urbanisation and health, we advance a pathway framework for explaining urban human health ecology. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient was used to measure the correlation between disease prevalence and urbanisation level, adding a further dimension to a systemic understanding of urban health.Results and conclusionsUrban areas have been increasing spatially, but unevenly, in recent decades, with medium and small cities also expanding rapidly in the past decade. Urbanisation and urban expansion result in changes to land use/coverage change, the urban environment and the residents’ lifestyle, which result in human health problems. Regions with the highest urbanisation level were more inclined to have a high prevalence of chronic disease in recent decades. An ecological public health approach provides insights into the multiple types of data which need to be routinely collected if human disease is not to become a barrier to social and economic development.

Urbanization and health in China, thinking at the national, local and individual levels

BackgroundChina has the biggest population in the world, and has been experiencing the largest migration in history, and its rapid urbanization has profound and lasting impacts on local and national public health. Under these conditions, a systems understanding on the correlation among urbanization, environmental change and public health and to devise solutions at national, local and individual levels are in urgent need.MethodsIn this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of recent studies which have examined the relationship between urbanization, urban environmental changes and human health in China. Based on the review, coupled with a systems understanding, we summarize the challenges and opportunities for promoting the health and wellbeing of the whole nation at national, local, and individual levels.ResultsUrbanization and urban expansion result in urban environmental changes, as well as residents’ lifestyle change, which can lead independently and synergistically to human health problems. China has undergone an epidemiological transition, shifting from infectious to chronic diseases in a much shorter time frame than many other countries. Environmental risk factors, particularly air and water pollution, are a major contributing source of morbidity and mortality in China. Furthermore, aging population, food support system, and disparity of public service between the migrant worker and local residents are important contributions to China’s urban health.ConclusionsAt the national level, the central government could improve current environmental policies, food safety laws, and make adjustments to the health care system and to demographic policy. At the local level, local government could incorporate healthy life considerations in urban planning procedures, make improvements to the local food supply, and enforce environmental monitoring and management. At the individual level, urban residents can be exposed to education regarding health behaviour choices while being encouraged to take responsibility for their health and to participate in environmental monitoring and management.

A geological analysis for the environmental cause of human birth defects based on GIS

Previous studies on birth defects risk from environmental factors focused on the dose–response relationship of exposure to toxic materials. The purpose of this article is to investigate the relationship between the geological background and occurrence ratio of neural tube defect (NTD) birth defects. Bayesian method was used to adjust the occurrence of NTD birth defects; both parametric and nonparametric statistical methods were used to quantify the correlation between geological background and human birth defects risk. At the two limbs of anticline rock, whose kernel stratum is of Archean kingdom, age of rock strata showed significant positive correlation to the occurrence of birth defects risk. In the region inside 4 km around the fault zone, the occurrence ratio of NTD birth defects is the highest; and decreases when the buffer distance increases. In macro spatial scale, geological background has a significant correlation to the birth defects risk with people residing near the fault zone having higher risk to beget babies with birth defects.

Understanding the relationship among urbanisation, climate change and human health: a case study in Xiamen

The objective of this study was to explore the correlation among urbanisation, climate change and human health. Temporal variation of the prevalence of communicable diseases and the meteorological parameters were analysed, and relations among communicable diseases, meteorological parameters and socio-economic statistical data are discussed based on correlation analysis and stepwise regression. The results showed that both socio-economic development and regional climate change have effects on the prevalence of communicable diseases. Prevalence of blood-borne diseases and sexually transmitted diseases in Xiamen significantly increased during the 1990s. On the other hand, the prevalence of respiratory infectious diseases and gastrointestinal infectious diseases showed a decreasing trend with economic development. Climate has changed in the past 50 years, and particularly so in the last 30 years. The prevalence of gastrointestinal infectious diseases is linked to variation of annual average temperature and relative humidity. Annual average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation could be important determinants of the prevalence of insect-borne diseases.

Urban transformation of a metropolis and its environmental impacts A case study in Shanghai

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to understand the sustainability of urban spatial transformation in the process of rapid urbanization, and calls for future research on the demographic and economic dimensions of climate change. Shanghai towards its transformation to a metropolis has experienced vast socioeconomic and ecological change and calls for future research on the impacts of demographic and economic dimensions on climate change. We look at the major questions (1) to explore economic and demographic growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic and city growth, and (2) to analyze how the demography and economic growth have been associated with the local air temperature and vegetation.MethodWe examine urban growth, land use and land-cover changes in the context of rapid economic development and urbanization. We assess the impact of urban expansion on local air temperature and vegetation. The analysis is based on time series data of land use, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and meteorological, demographic and economic data.Results and discussionThe results indicate that urban growth has been driven by mass immigration; as a consequence of economic growth and urban expansion, a large amount of farmland has been converted to paved road and residential buildings. Furthermore, the difference between air temperature in urban and exurban areas has increased rapidly. The decrease of high mean annual NDVI has mainly occurred around the dense urban areas.

Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into sustainable development planning for Lijiang City

Cities are facing considerable challenges resulting from imminent climate change impacts. Urban planning to minimise adverse impacts of climate change at the city level can establish a climate-resilient city. Mitigation strategies to reduce CO2 emissions would lead to a climate-friendly city. Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation into sustainable city planning should not be merely added as a single level of sustainable city planning, but requires a wide range of multi-level cooperation. Lijiang City has experienced climatic change during the last half century, and its CO2 emissions have increased faster than the GDP growth. Nearby glaciers on Yulong Snow Mountain have been retreating and losing mass since the early twentieth century. In this paper, we identify economic sectors that are vulnerable to climate change, including tourism, agriculture and water supply, and propose mitigation and adaptation strategies to cope with climate change in this tourism city. As energy use is the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, renewable energy has enormous CO2 reduction potential. Land use practices, a sectoral approach and public participation are all considered adaptive in climate planning. The proposals outlined are valuable as they provide an understanding of how to implement integrated climate planning and integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation into sustainable city planning.

Identifying environmental risk factors for human neural tube defects before and after folic acid supplementation

BackgroundBirth defects are a major cause of infant mortality and disability in many parts of the world. Neural tube defects (NTDs) are one of the most common types of birth defects. In 2001, the Chinese population and family planning commission initiated a national intervention program for the prevention of birth defects. A key step in the program was the introduction of folic acid supplementation. Of interest in the present study was to determine whether folic acid supplementation has the same protective effect on NTDs under various geographical and socioeconomic conditions within the Chinese population and the nature in which the influence of environmental factors varied after folic acid supplementation.MethodsIn this study, Heshun was selected as the region of interest as a surrogate for helping to answer some of the questions raised in this study on the impact of the intervention program. Spatial filtering in combination with GIS software was used to detect annual potential clusters from 1998 to 2005 in Heshun, and Kruskal-wallis test and multivariate regression were applied to identify the environmental risk factors for NTDs among various regions.ResultsIn 1998, a significant (p < 0.100) NTDs cluster was detected in the west of Heshun. After folic acid supplementation, the significant clusters gradually moved from west to east. However, during the study period, most of the clusters appeared in the middle region of Heshun where more than 95 percent of the coal mines of Heshun are located. For the analysis, buffer regions of the coal mine zone were built in a GIS environment. It was found that the correlations between environmental risk factors and NTDs vary among the buffer regions.ConclusionThis suggests that the government needs to adapt the intervention measures according to local conditions. More attention needs to be paid to the poor and to people living in areas near coal mines.

Analysis of geographical clustering of birth defects in Heshun county, Shanxi province

Birth defects remain the leading cause of stillbirth and infant mortality in China, especially in rural areas. The objective of this research is to seek evidence of clustering of cases of birth defects within a highly endemic area and to identify the environmental and landscape characteristics associated with increased risk for birth defects in Heshun county. This study uses four years of data, 1998–2001, to identify clusters of birth defects in Heshun county. A spatial scan statistic was employed to examine the spatial and spatio-temporal clustering of birth defects in the study area. Statistically significant clusters with high relative risk (RR = 2.981, p = 0.008) were identified using a spatial scan statistic. The spatial cluster located in southeast Heshun county has a radius of 7.52 km and includes 27 villages and 27 cases, accounting for 21.25% of the total cases during the study period. The methodology applied in this study was useful for evaluating the spatial distribution of birth defects in Heshun county from 1998–2001. The identified areas may be critical to control birth defects and may provide important direction for further study and targeted interventions.