Xinrong Wu

Error Covariance Estimation for Coupled Data Assimilation Using a Lorenz Atmosphere and a Simple Pycnocline Ocean Model

AbstractCoupled data assimilation uses a coupled model consisting of multiple time-scale media to extract information from observations that are available in one or more media. Because of the instantaneous exchanges of information among the coupled media, coupled data assimilation is expected to produce self-consistent and physically balanced coupled state estimates and optimal initialization for coupled model predictions. It is also expected that applying coupling error covariance between two media into observational adjustments in these media can provide direct observational impacts crossing the media and thereby improve the assimilation quality. However, because of the different time scales of variability in different media, accurately evaluating the error covariance between two variables residing in different media is usually very difficult. Using an ensemble filter together with a simple coupled model consisting of a Lorenz atmosphere and a pycnocline ocean model, which characterizes the interaction ...

Parameter Optimization in an Intermediate Coupled Climate Model with Biased Physics

AbstractImperfect physical parameterization schemes in a coupled climate model are an important source of model biases that adversely impact climate prediction. However, how observational information should be used to optimize physical parameterizations through parameter estimation has not been fully studied. Using an intermediate coupled ocean–atmosphere model, the authors investigate parameter optimization when the assimilation model contains biased physics within a biased assimilation experiment framework. Here, the biased physics is induced by using different outgoing longwave radiation schemes in the assimilation model and the “truth” model that is used to generate simulated observations. While the stochastic physics, implemented by initially perturbing the physical parameters, can significantly enhance the ensemble spread and improve the representation of the model ensemble, the parameter estimation is able to mitigate the model biases induced by the biased physics. Furthermore, better results for c...

A Compensatory Approach of the Fixed Localization in EnKF

AbstractWhile fixed covariance localization can greatly increase the reliability of the background error covariance in filtering by suppressing the long-distance spurious correlations evaluated by a finite ensemble, it may degrade the assimilation quality in an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as a result of restricted longwave information. Tuning an optimal cutoff distance is usually very expensive and time consuming, especially for a general circulation model (GCM). Here the authors present an approach to compensate the demerit in fixed localization. At each analysis step, after the standard EnKF is done, a multiple-scale analysis technique is used to extract longwave information from the observational residual (referred to the EnKF ensemble mean). Within a biased twin-experiment framework consisting of a global barotropical spectral model and an idealized observing system, the performance of the new method is examined. Compared to a standard EnKF, the hybrid method is superior when an overly small/large c...

The Reanalysis of Currents and Throughflow Volume Transport in the Taiwan Strait

Currents and throughflow transport in the Taiwan Strait (TS) are systematically analyzed using a new regional ocean reanalysis dataset (China Ocean ReAnalysis, CORA in brief), recently released by National Marine Data and Information Service (NMDIS) in 2009, covering Chinas coastal waters and adjacent seas. The total throughflow volume transport through TS presents a seasonal variability with the annual-mean of 1.49Sv. It reaches maximum in summer with mean value of 2.33Sv, while in winter the mean transport falls to 0.78Sv on average. The estimated throughflow transport is in good agreement with the observational results. The comparisons of the results with historical observations and numerical simulations also show that CORA performs well on reproducing the currents and temperature field in TS region. In addition, CORA not only successfully reproduced the known oceanic phenomena in TS such as temperature front, up-wind flow in fall, winter northward flow blocking in Penghu Channel, and the winter anticyclonic eddy located at north of Changyun Rise (CYR), but it also found a new cyclonic eddy in north TS in winter.

Correction of biased climate simulated by biased physics through parameter estimation in an intermediate coupled model

Imperfect physical parameterization schemes are an important source of model bias in a coupled model and adversely impact the performance of model simulation. With a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model of intermediate complexity, the impact of imperfect parameter estimation on model simulation with biased physics has been studied. Here, the biased physics is induced by using different outgoing longwave radiation schemes in the assimilation and “truth” models. To mitigate model bias, the parameters employed in the biased longwave radiation scheme are optimized using three different methods: least-squares parameter fitting (LSPF), single-valued parameter estimation and geography-dependent parameter optimization (GPO), the last two of which belong to the coupled model parameter estimation (CMPE) method. While the traditional LSPF method is able to improve the performance of coupled model simulations, the optimized parameter values from the CMPE, which uses the coupled model dynamics to project observational information onto the parameters, further reduce the bias of the simulated climate arising from biased physics. Further, parameters estimated by the GPO method can properly capture the climate-scale signal to improve the simulation of climate variability. These results suggest that the physical parameter estimation via the CMPE scheme is an effective approach to restrain the model climate drift during decadal climate predictions using coupled general circulation models.

Impact of sea spray on upper ocean temperature during typhoon passage: simulation with a 1-D turbulent model

At the interface between the lower atmosphere and sea surface, sea spray might significantly influence air-sea heat fluxes and subsequently, modulate upper ocean temperature during a typhoon passage. The effects of sea spray were introduced into the parameterization of sea surface roughness in a 1-D turbulent model, to investigate the effects of sea spray on upper ocean temperature in the Kuroshio Extension area, for the cases of two real typhoons from 2006, Yagi and Soulik. Model output was compared with data from the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO), and Reynolds and AMSRE satellite remote sensing sea surface temperatures. The results indicate drag coefficients that include the spray effect are closer to observations than those without, and that sea spray can enhance the heat fluxes (especially latent heat flux) considerably during a typhoon passage. Consequently, the model results with heat fluxes enhanced by sea spray simulate better the cooling process of the SST and upper-layer temperature profiles. Additionally, results from the simulation of the passage of typhoon Soulik (that passed KEO quickly), which included the sea spray effect, were better than for the simulated passage of typhoon Yagi (that crossed KEO slowly). These promising 1-D results could provide insight into the application of sea spray in general circulation models for typhoon studies.

A Study of Transport and Impact Strength of Fukushima Nuclear Pollutants in the North Pacific Surface

Based on the statistics of surface drifter data of 1979–2011 and the simulation of nuclear pollutant particulate movements simulated using high quality ocean reanalysis surface current dataset, the transport pathways and impact strength of Fukushima nuclear pollutants in the North Pacific have been estimated. The particulates are used to increase the sampling size and enhance the representativeness of statistical results. The trajectories of the drifters and particulates are first examined to identify typical drifting pathways. The results show that there are three types of transport paths for nuclear pollutants at the surface: 1) most pollutant particles move eastward and are carried by the Kuroshio and Kuroshio-extension currents and reach the east side of the North Pacific after about 3.2–3.9 years; 2) some particles travel with the subtropical circulation branch and reach the east coast of China after about 1.6 years according to one drifter trajectory and about 3.6 years according to particulate trajectories; 3) a little of them travel with local, small scale circulations and reach the east coast of China after about 1.3–1.8 years. Based on the particulates, the impact strength of nuclear pollutants at these time scales can be estimated according to the temporal variations of relative concentration combined with the radioactive decay rate. For example, Cesium-137, carried by the strong North Pacific current, mainly accumulates in the eastern North Pacific and its impact strength is 4% of the initial level at the originating Fukushima area after 4 years. Due to local eddies, Cesium-137 in the western North Pacific is 1% of the initial pollutant level after 1.5 years and continuously increases to 3% after 4 years. The vertical movement of radioactive pollutants is not taken into account in the present study, and the estimation accuracy would be improved by considering three-dimensional flows.

Variational Estimation of Wave-affected Parameters in a Two-equation Turbulence Model

AbstractA variational method is used to estimate wave-affected parameters in a two-equation turbulence model with assimilation of temperature data into an ocean boundary layer model. Enhancement of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation due to breaking waves is considered. The Mellor–Yamada level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme (MY2.5) with the two uncertain wave-affected parameters (wave energy factor α and Charnock coefficient β) is selected as the two-equation turbulence model for this study. Two types of experiments are conducted. First, within an identical synthetic experiment framework, the upper-layer temperature “observations” in summer generated by a “truth” model are assimilated into a biased simulation model to investigate if (α, β) can be successfully estimated using the variational method. Second, real temperature profiles from Ocean Weather Station Papa are assimilated into the biased simulation model to obtain the optimal wave-affected parameters. With the optimally estimated parameters, the up...

Climate modulation on sea surface height in China seas

The climate modulation on the sea surface height (SSH) in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) dataset from 1958–2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the CORA sea surface height anomaly (SSHa) is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component (PC1) is significant positively correlated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) has significant negative correlation with PC1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.

An ensemble estimation of impact times and strength of Fukushima nuclear pollution to the east coast of China and the west coast of America

Based on the statistics of all surface drifting buoys of 1978–2011 and Lagrangian tracers simulated from high quality ocean reanalysis currents, the impact times and strength of Fukushima nuclear pollution to the east coast of China and the west coast of America have been estimated. Under the circumstances of the radioactive pollutants drifting in the ocean surface, preliminary research results show that while the tracers took about 4 years to reach the west coast of USA, there are two types of tracers to carry out Fukushima nuclear pollutants to reach the east coast of China, corresponding to 1.5-year recirculation gyre transport and 3.5-year subtropical circulation transport. The distributions of the impact strength at these time scales are given according to the variation of relative number concentration with time combined with the decaying rate of radioactive matter. For example, starting from 1% at 1.5-year, of the initial level at the originating area of Fukushima nuclear pollution, the impact strength of Cesium-137 in the South China Sea continuously increases up to 3% by 4 years, while the impact strength of Cesium-137 in the west coast of America is as high as 4% due to the role of strong Kuroshio-extension currents as a major transport mechanism of nuclear pollutants for that area.