Xinyi Dong

Environmental effects of the recent emission changes in China: implications for particulate matter pollution and soil acidification

Driven by a rapid increase of energy consumption and emerging pollution control policies, air pollutant emissions have changed dramatically in China during 2005‐2010. This study developed a multi-pollutant emission inventory, and used the community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system to evaluate the impact of the emission changes on particulate matter pollution and soil acidification. During 2005‐2010, the emissions of SO2, PM10 and PM2:5 decreased by 14.9%, 15.1% and 11.7%, respectively. In contrast, the emissions of NOX, NMVOC and NH3 increased by 33.8%, 21.0% and 10.4%, respectively. The emission trends differed notably in different regions. Driven by emission changes, PM2:5 concentrations decreased by 2‐17 g m 3 in most of the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, while increasing by 4.5‐16 g m 3 in most of the Sichuan Basin and Eastern Hubei. The changes of PM2:5 emissions led to the decline of primary PM2:5 concentrations in most of Eastern China. As an effect solely of emission changes, nitrate concentrations increased across most of China; sulfate concentrations decreased in most of Eastern China, with the largest reduction in the North China Plain, while they increased in the Sichuan Basin and parts of the Pearl River Delta and Eastern Hubei. The concentrations of secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA) and the extinction coefficient increased in most of China, especially in the Sichuan Basin and Eastern Hubei, implying that the NOX and NH3 emissions should be reduced simultaneously in China. Combining the acidification effects of S and N, the exceedance of critical loads decreased across the country, but increased in the Sichuan Basin, the Pearl River Delta and Eastern Hubei, where the soil acidification was the most serious. Different control policies need to be implemented in different regions.

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to estimate public health impacts of PM2.5 from individual power plants

We estimated PM2.5-related public health impacts/ton emitted of primary PM2.5, SO2, and NOx for a set of power plants in the Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes regions of the United States, selected to include varying emission profiles and broad geographic representation. We then developed a regression model explaining variability in impacts per ton emitted using the population distributions around each plant. We linked outputs from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v 4.7.1 with census data and concentration-response functions for PM2.5-related mortality, and monetized health estimates using the value-of-statistical-life. The median impacts for the final set of plants were

Sensitivity and linearity analysis of ozone in East Asia: the effects of domestic emission and intercontinental transport.

130,000/ton for primary PM2.5 (range:

Inorganic aerosols responses to emission changes in Yangtze River Delta, China

22,000-230,000),

Estimating evaporative vapor generation from automobiles based on parking activities

28,000/ton for SO2 (range:

Analysis of the Co-existence of Long-range Transport Biomass Burning and Dust in the Subtropical West Pacific Region

19,000-33,000), and

Modeling cold soak evaporative vapor emissions from gasoline-powered automobiles using a newly developed method

16,000/ton for NOx (range:

Impact assessment of biomass burning on air quality in Southeast and East Asia during BASE-ASIA

7100-26,000). Impacts of NOx were a median of 34% (range: 20%-75%) from ammonium nitrate and 66% (range: 25%-79%) from ammonium sulfate. The latter pathway is likely from NOx enhancing atmospheric oxidative capacity and amplifying sulfate formation, and is often excluded. Our regression models explained most of the variation in impact/ton estimates using basic population covariates, and can aid in estimating impacts averted from interventions such as pollution controls, alternative energy installations, or demand-side management.

Assessing the nonlinear response of fine particles to precursor emissions: development and application of an extended response surface modeling technique v1.0

In this study, ozone (O3) sensitivity and linearity over East Asia (EA) and seven urban areas are examined with an integrated air quality modeling system under two categories of scenarios: (1) The effects of domestic emission are estimated under local emission reduction scenarios, as anthropogenic NOx and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions are reduced by 20%, 50%, and 100%, respectively and independently; and (2) the influence of intercontinental transport is evaluated under Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) emission reduction scenarios, as anthropogenic NOx emission is reduced by 20% in Europe (EU), North America (NA), and South Asia (SA), respectively. Simulations are conducted for January and July 2001 to examine seasonal variation. Through the domestic O3 sensitivity investigation, we find O3 sensitivity varies dynamically depending on both time and location: North EA is VOC limited in January and NOx limited in July, except for the urban areas Beijing, Shanghai, Tokyo, and Seoul, which are VOC limited in both months; south EA is NOx limited in both January and July, except for the urban areas Taipei, which is VOC-limited in both months, and Pearl River Delta, which is VOC limited in January. Surface O3 change is found to be affected more by NOx than by VOC over EA in both January and July. We also find different O3 linearity characteristics among urban areas in EA: O3 at Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul shows a strong negative linear response to NOx emission in January; O3 at Shanghai, Pearl River Delta, and Taipei shows a strong positive response to VOC emission in both January and July. Through the long-range transport investigation, monthly O3 changes over EA resulting from different source regions indicate the largest source contribution comes from NA (0.23 ppb), followed by SA (0.11 ppb) and EU (0.10 ppb). All of the three regions show higher impacts in January than in July. Implications: This study examine O3 sensitivities and linear response of NOx and VOC emission over EA and seven urban areas based on regional air quality modeling system MM5/CMAQ. We also quantify the intercontinental transport effect from EU, SA, and NA over EA. The result provide a theoretical basis for emission control strategy design in EA, and also reveal the O3 special nonlinearity features for further related studies that are applicable to other continents. The HTAP multimodel experiments need to examine the potential impacts on ground-level O3 of changes in meteorology and transport patterns expected as a result of the regional scale.

Probe into gaseous pollution and assessment of air quality benefit under sector dependent emission control strategies over megacities in Yangtze River Delta, China

The new Chinese National Ambient Air Quality standards (CH-NAAQS) published on Feb. 29th, 2012 listed PM2.5 as criteria pollutant for the very first time. In order to probe into PM2.5 pollution over Yangtze River Delta, the integrated MM5/CMAQ modeling system is applied for a full year simulation to examine the PM2.5 concentration and seasonality, and also the inorganic aerosols responses to precursor emission changes. Total PM2.5 concentration over YRD was found to have strong seasonal variation with higher values in winter months (up to 89.9 μg/m(3) in January) and lower values in summer months (down to 28.8 μg/m(3) in July). Inorganic aerosols were found to have substantial contribution to PM2.5 over YRD, ranging from 37.1% in November to 52.8% in May. Nocturnal production of nitrate (NO3(-)) through heterogeneous hydrolysis of N2O5 was found significantly contribute to high NO3(-) concentration throughout the year. In winter, NO3(-) was found to increase under nitrogen oxides (NOx) emission reduction due to higher production of N2O5 from the excessive ozone (O3) introduced by attenuated titration, which further lead to increase of ammonium (NH4(+)) and sulfate (SO4(2-)), while other seasons showed decrease response of NO3(-). Sensitivity responses of NO3(-) under anthropogenic VOC emission reduction was examined and demonstrated that in urban areas over YRD, NO3(-) formation was actually more sensitive to VOC than NOx due to the O3-involved nighttime chemistry of N2O5, while a reduction of NOx emission may have counter-intuitive effect by increasing concentrations of inorganic aerosols.