Xuemin Tu

Implicit sampling for particle filters

We present a particle-based nonlinear filtering scheme, related to recent work on chainless Monte Carlo, designed to focus particle paths sharply so that fewer particles are required. The main features of the scheme are a representation of each new probability density function by means of a set of functions of Gaussian variables (a distinct function for each particle and step) and a resampling based on normalization factors and Jacobians. The construction is demonstrated on a standard, ill-conditioned test problem.

A random map implementation of implicit filters

Implicit particle filters for data assimilation generate high-probability samples by representing each particle location as a separate function of a common reference variable. This representation requires that a certain underdetermined equation be solved for each particle and at each time an observation becomes available. We present a new implementation of implicit filters in which we find the solution of the equation via a random map. As examples, we assimilate data for a stochastically driven Lorenz system with sparse observations and for a stochastic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation with observations that are sparse in both space and time.

Parameter estimation by implicit sampling

Author(s): Morzfeld, M; Tu, X; Wilkening, J; Chorin, AJ | Abstract:

Limitations of polynomial chaos expansions in the Bayesian solution of inverse problems

Polynomial chaos expansions are used to reduce the computational cost in the Bayesian solutions of inverse problems by creating a surrogate posterior that can be evaluated inexpensively. We show, by analysis and example, that when the data contain significant information beyond what is assumed in the prior, the surrogate posterior can be very different from the posterior, and the resulting estimates become inaccurate. One can improve the accuracy by adaptively increasing the order of the polynomial chaos, but the cost may increase too fast for this to be cost effective compared to Monte Carlo sampling without a surrogate posterior.

A survey of implicit particle filters for data assimilation

The implicit particle filter is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation. The idea is to focus the particles onto the high probability regions of the target probability density function (pdf) so that the number of particles required for a good approximation of this pdf remains manageable, even if the dimension of the state space is large. We explain how this idea is implemented, discuss special cases of practical importance, and work out the relations of the implicit particle filter with other data assimilation methods. We illustrate the theory with six examples.

Accounting for Model Error from Unresolved Scales in Ensemble Kalman Filters by Stochastic Parameterization

© 2017 American Meteorological Society. The use of discrete-time stochastic parameterization to account for model error due to unresolved scales in ensemble Kalman filters is investigated by numerical experiments. The parameterization quantifies the model error and produces an improved non-Markovian forecast model, which generates high quality forecast ensembles and improves filter performance. Results are compared with the methods of dealing with model error through covariance inflation and localization (IL), using as an example the two-layer Lorenz-96 system. The numerical results show that when the ensemble size is sufficiently large, the parameterization is more effective in accounting for the model error than IL; if the ensemble size is small, IL is needed to reduce sampling error, but the parameterization further improves the performance of the filter. This suggests that in real applications where the ensemble size is relatively small, the filter can achieve better performance than pure IL if stochastic parameterization methods are combined with IL.