Xuhui Dong

Extending the timescale and range of ecosystem services through paleoenvironmental analyses, exemplified in the lower Yangtze basin

In China, and elsewhere, long-term economic development and poverty alleviation need to be balanced against the likelihood of ecological failure. Here, we show how paleoenvironmental records can provide important multidecadal perspectives on ecosystem services (ES). More than 50 different paleoenvironmental proxy records can be mapped to a wide range of ES categories and subcategories. Lake sediments are particularly suitable for reconstructing records of regulating services, such as soil stability, sediment regulation, and water purification, which are often less well monitored. We demonstrate the approach using proxy records from two sets of lake sediment sequences in the lower Yangtze basin covering the period 1800–2006, combined with recent socioeconomic and climate records. We aggregate the proxy records into a regional regulating services index to show that rapid economic growth and population increases since the 1950s are strongly coupled to environmental degradation. Agricultural intensification from the 1980s onward has been the main driver for reducing rural poverty but has led to an accelerated loss of regulating services. In the case of water purification, there is strong evidence that a threshold has been transgressed within the last two decades. The current steep trajectory of the regulating services index implies that regional land management practices across a large agricultural tract of eastern China are critically unsustainable.

Poverty alleviation strategies in eastern China lead to critical ecological dynamics

Poverty alleviation linked to agricultural intensification has been achieved in many regions but there is often only limited understanding of the impacts on ecological dynamics. A central need is to observe long term changes in regulating and supporting services as the basis for assessing the likelihood of sustainable agriculture or ecological collapse. We show how the analyses of 55 time-series of social, economic and ecological conditions can provide an evolutionary perspective for the modern Lower Yangtze River Basin region since the 1950s with powerful insights about the sustainability of modern ecosystem services. Increasing trends in provisioning ecosystem services within the region over the past 60 years reflect economic growth and successful poverty alleviation but are paralleled by steep losses in a range of regulating ecosystem services mainly since the 1980s. Increasing connectedness across the social and ecological domains after 1985 points to a greater uniformity in the drivers of the rural economy. Regime shifts and heightened levels of variability since the 1970s in local ecosystem services indicate progressive loss of resilience across the region. Of special concern are water quality services that have already passed critical transitions in several areas. Viewed collectively, our results suggest that the regional social-ecological system passed a tipping point in the late 1970s and is now in a transient phase heading towards a new steady state. However, the long-term relationship between economic growth and ecological degradation shows no sign of decoupling as demanded by the need to reverse an unsustainable trajectory.

Social-ecological systems in the Anthropocene: The need for integrating social and biophysical records at regional scales

Understanding social-ecological system dynamics is a major research priority for sustainable management of landscapes, ecosystems and resources. But the lack of multi-decadal records represents an important gap in information that hinders the development of the research agenda. Without improved information on the long-term and complex interactions between causal factors and responses, it will be difficult to answer key questions about trends, rates of change, tipping points, safe operating spaces and pre-impact conditions. Where available long-term monitored records are too short or lacking, palaeoenvironmental sciences may provide continuous multi-decadal records for an array of ecosystem states, processes and services. Combining these records with conventional sources of historical information from instrumental monitoring records, official statistics and enumerations, remote sensing, archival documents, cartography and archaeology produces an evolutionary framework for reconstructing integrated regional histories. We demonstrate the integrated approach with published case studies from Australia, China, Europe and North America.

Using sedimentary diatoms to identify reference conditions and historical variability in shallow lake ecosystems in the Yangtze floodplain

The reference condition and historical variability of aquatic ecosystems are key ecological characters for understanding the dynamic and ecological assessment of wetland systems. Based on high-resolution chronological sequences of diatom records from 10 lakes in the Yangtze floodplain, this study aims to determine their ecological and chemical reference conditions, the historical variability and its controlling factors. Mesotrophic species Aulacoseria granulata, along with non-planktonic species Fragilaria spp., Navicula spp., Cocconeis placentula, Achnanthidium minutissimum, Cymbella spp. etc, were most abundant in the reference samples (1800–50). Accordingly, a relatively high chemical reference (50 µg L–1 in diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentration) was defined. The degree of floristic change comparing present with reference samples reveals that six of the 10 lakes have undergone significant ecological changes. The historical variability in those lakes was found to be regulated by the distance from the Yangtze River (negatively) and the lake catchment area (positively). This reflects the mechanism driving ecological change in floodplain lakes: the ecological conditions were sensitive to the nutrient input from the catchment and disturbance by the Yangtze River. This study demonstrates the robustness of palaeolimnological techniques in reconstructing the historical ecological characters of lake ecosystems, which may provide essential information for the management of wider types of wetland.

Early warning of critical transitions in biodiversity from compositional disorder

Abstract Global environmental change presents a clear need for improved leading indicators of critical transitions, especially those that can be generated from compositional data and that work in empirical cases. Ecological theory of community dynamics under environmental forcing predicts an early replacement of slowly replicating and weakly competitive “canary” species by slowly replicating but strongly competitive “keystone” species. Further forcing leads to the eventual collapse of the keystone species as they are replaced by weakly competitive but fast‐replicating “weedy” species in a critical transition to a significantly different state. We identify a diagnostic signal of these changes in the coefficients of a correlation between compositional disorder and biodiversity. Compositional disorder measures unpredictability in the composition of a community, while biodiversity measures the amount of species in the community. In a stochastic simulation, sequential correlations over time switch from positive to negative as keystones prevail over canaries, and back to positive with domination of weedy species. The model finds support in empirical tests on multi‐decadal time series of fossil diatom and chironomid communities from lakes in China. The characteristic switch from positive to negative correlation coefficients occurs for both communities up to three decades preceding a critical transition to a sustained alternate state. This signal is robust to unequal time increments that beset the identification of early‐warning signals from other metrics.

First human impacts and responses of aquatic systems: A review of palaeolimnological records from around the world:

Lake sediments constitute natural archives of past environmental changes. Historically, research has focused mainly on generating regional climate records, but records of human impacts caused by land use and exploitation of freshwater resources are now attracting scientific and management interests. Long-term environmental records are useful to establish ecosystem reference conditions, enabling comparisons with current environments and potentially allowing future trajectories to be more tightly constrained. Here we review the timing and onset of human disturbance in and around inland water ecosystems as revealed through sedimentary archives from around the world. Palaeolimnology provides access to a wealth of information reflecting early human activities and their corresponding aquatic ecological shifts. First human impacts on aquatic systems and their watersheds are highly variable in time and space. Landscape disturbance often constitutes the first anthropogenic signal in palaeolimnological records. While the effects of humans at the landscape level are relatively easily demonstrated, the earliest signals of human-induced changes in the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems need very careful investigation using multiple proxies. Additional studies will improve our understanding of linkages between human settlements, their exploitation of land and water resources, and the downstream effects on continental waters.

Influence of environmental and spatial factors on the distribution of surface sediment diatoms in Chaohu Lake, southeast China

Abstract - The spatial distribution of surface sediment diatoms in Chaohu Lake (southeast China), and their relationships with environmental and spatial variables were analyzed in this study. The diatom assemblages were dominated by planktonic species. Three dominant species Cyclostephanos dubius, Aulacoseira granulata and Aulacoseira alpigena are unevenly distributed across the lake. The distribution of surface sediment diatoms must be subject to trophic status, hydrodynamics and other spatial variables in the lake.

Identifying sediment discontinuities and solving dating puzzles using monitoring and palaeolimnological records

Palaeolimnological studies should ideally be based upon continuous, undisturbed sediment sequences with reliable chronologies. However for some lake cores, these conditions are not met and palaeolimnologists are often faced with dating puzzles caused by sediment disturbances in the past. This study chooses Esthwaite Water from England to illustrate how to identify sedimentation discontinuities in lake cores and how chronologies can be established for imperfect cores by correlation of key sediment signatures in parallel core records and with long-term monitoring data (1945–2003). Replicated short cores (ESTH1, ESTH7, and ESTH8) were collected and subjected to loss-on-ignition, radiometric dating (210Pb, 137Cs, and 14C), particle size, trace metal, and fossil diatom analysis. Both a slumping and a hiatus event were detected in ESTH7 based on comparisons made between the cores and the long-term diatom data. Ordination analysis suggested that the slumped material in ESTH7 originated from sediment deposited around 1805–1880 AD. Further, it was inferred that the hiatus resulted in a loss of sediment deposited from 1870 to 1970 AD. Given the existence of three superior 14C dates in ESTH7, ESTH1 and ESTH7 were temporally correlated by multiple palaeolimnological proxies for age-depth model development. High variability in sedimentation rates was evident, but good agreement across the various palaeolimnological proxies indicated coherence in sediment processes within the coring area. Differences in sedimentation rates most likely resulted from the natural morphology of the lake basin. Our study suggests that caution is required in selecting suitable coring sites for palaeolimnological studies of small, relatively deep lakes and that proximity to steep slopes should be avoided wherever possible. Nevertheless, in some cases, comparisons between a range of contemporary and palaeolimnological records can be employed to diagnose sediment disturbances and establish a chronology.