Y. Yu

Relationship between Warm Airmass Transport into the Upper Polar Atmosphere and Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter

This studyinvestigates dominantpatterns of daily surface air temperature anomaliesin winter (November‐ February) and their relationship with the meridional mass circulation variability using the daily Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis in 1979‐2011. Mass circulation indices are constructed to measure the day-to-day variability of mass transport into the polar region by the warm air branch aloft and out of the polar region by the cold air branch in the lower troposphere. It is shown that weaker warm airmass transport into the upper polar atmosphere is accompanied by weaker equatorward advancement of cold air in the lower troposphere. As a result, the cold air is largely imprisoned within the polar region, responsible for anomalous warmth in midlatitudes and anomalous cold in high latitudes. Conversely, stronger warm airmass transport into the upper polar atmosphere is synchronized with stronger equatorward discharge of cold polar air in the lower troposphere, resulting in massive cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes and anomalous warmth in high latitudes. Therearetwodominantgeographicalpatternsofcoldairoutbreaksduringthecoldairdischargeperiod(or1‐ 10 days after a stronger mass circulation across 608N). One represents cold air outbreaks in midlatitudes of both North America and Eurasia, and the other is the dominance of cold air outbreaks only over one of the two continents with abnormal warmth over the other continent. The first pattern mainly corresponds to the first and fourth leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of daily surface air temperature anomalies in winter, whereas the second pattern is related to the second EOF mode.

Comparison of the mass circulation and AO indices as indicators of cold air outbreaks in northern winter

Using the daily ERA-Interim reanalysis data set for the 32 winters in 1979–2011, we find that midlatitude cold air outbreaks (CAOs) tend to preferentially occur within a week after simultaneously stronger mass circulations into the Arctic region in upper levels and out of the Arctic region below. The relationship of CAOs with Arctic Oscillation (AO) is less robust because temporal changes of AO are resulted from a small imbalance between the poleward and equatorward branches of the mass circulation. Results indicate that only when the poleward branch leads the equatorward branch (44% of all cases), CAOs tend to take place within a week after a negative phase of AO, whereas when the equatorward branch leads (19%), CAOs tend to occur after a positive phase of AO. In the remaining cases when the two branches are almost in phase, CAOs can be observed during either negative (24%) or positive (13%) phase of AO.

FEELING THE PULSE OF THE STRATOSPHERE An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold-Air Outbreaks I Month in Advance

AbstractExtreme weather events such as cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) pose great threats to human life and the socioeconomic well-being of modern society. In the past, our capability to predict their occurrences has been constrained by the 2-week predictability limit for weather. We demonstrate here for the first time that a rapid increase of air mass transported into the polar stratosphere, referred to as the pulse of the stratosphere (PULSE), can often be predicted with a useful degree of skill 4–6 weeks in advance by operational forecast models. We further show that the probability of the occurrence of continental-scale CAOs in midlatitudes increases substantially above normal conditions within a short time period from 1 week before to 1–2 weeks after the peak day of a PULSE event. In particular, we reveal that the three massive CAOs over North America in January and February of 2014 were preceded by three episodes of extreme mass transport into the polar stratosphere with peak intensities reaching a trilli...