Yali Luo

Regional atmospheric anomalies responsible for the 2009–2010 severe drought in China

[1]xa0The severe drought that emerged in summer 2009 and persisted in the subsequent fall and winter in southwest China caused a significant shortage of drinking and drainage water. Precipitation during the drought is much less than normal, and the meteorological drought extent exceeds the climatic mean in almost all the days during the period. The warmer-than-normal surface temperature facilitates the hydrological and agricultural drought through enhancing surface evaporation. The less-than-normal water vapor in the atmosphere and warmer-than-normal air temperature both contribute to the lower-than-normal relative humidity and thus the less-than-normal precipitation. The water vapor transport during the drought has no significant change in track but is much weaker in strength across the southwest. The weaker-than-normal water vapor transport and convergence in the fall and winter make it hard for the air to form heavy rains. The warmer-than-normal temperature corresponds to positive anomalies of geopotential thickness, with negative anomalies of geopotential height at lower levels but strong positive anomalies at middle and upper levels. The warmer-than-normal air temperature is important to the maintenance of the drought at this time of the year under the dry atmospheric condition. The persistent warm temperature makes it hard for the air to become saturated and thus hard for even light rains, which are efficient in mitigating drought, to form. The inherent mechanism in the atmosphere, namely, the positive feedback between less precipitation and warm temperature, helps maintain the drought.

Comparison of Rainfall Characteristics and Convective Properties of Monsoon Precipitation Systems over South China and the Yangtze and Huai River Basin

AbstractRainfall characteristics and convective properties of monsoon precipitation systems over South China (SC) and the Yangtze and Huai River basin (YHRB) are investigated using multiple satellite products, surface rainfall observations, NCEP reanalysis, and weather maps. Comparisons between SC and YHRB are made for their monsoon active periods and their subseasonal variations from the premonsoon to monsoon and further to postmonsoon periods. The principal findings are as follows. (i) During the monsoon active period, region-averaged rain accumulation is greater in SC due to more frequent occurrence of precipitation systems; however, heavy rainfall contribution is greater in YHRB. These differences are related to more intense convective motion over the YHRB in association with the flatter land and more concurrent presence and stronger intensity of the low-level vortices and surface fronts. (ii) Largely in agreement with the subseasonal variations of the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions, convective ...

Intercomparison of Deep Convection over the Tibetan Plateau–Asian Monsoon Region and Subtropical North America in Boreal Summer Using CloudSat/CALIPSO Data

AbstractDeep convection in the Tibetan Plateau–southern Asian monsoon region (TP–SAMR) is analyzed using CloudSat and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data for the boreal summer season (June–August) from 2006 to 2009. Three subregions are defined—the TP, the southern slope of the plateau (PSS), and the SAMR—and deep convection properties (such as occurrence frequency, internal vertical structure, system size, and local environment) are compared among these subregions. To cast them in a broader context, four additional regions that bear some similarity to the TP–SAMR are also discussed: East Asia (EA), tropical northwestern Pacific (NWP), and western and eastern North America (WNA and ENA, respectively).The principal findings are as follows: 1) Compared to the other two subregions of the TP–SAMR, deep convection over the TP is shallower, less frequent, and embedded in smaller-size convection systems, but the cloud tops are more densely packed. These characteristi...

Initiation and Organizational Modes of an Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective System along a Mei-Yu Front in East China

AbstractThe initiation and organization of a quasi-linear extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) along a mei-yu front in east China during the midnight-to-morning hours of 8 July 2007 are studied using high-resolution surface observations and radar reflectivity, and a 24-h convection-permitting simulation with the nested grid spacing of 1.11 km. Both the observations and the simulation reveal that the quasi-linear MCS forms through continuous convective initiation and organization into west–east-oriented rainbands with life spans of about 4–10 h, and their subsequent southeastward propagation. Results show that the early convective initiation at the western end of the MCS results from moist southwesterly monsoonal flows ascending cold domes left behind by convective activity that develops during the previous afternoon-to-evening hours, suggesting a possible linkage between the early morning and late afternoon peaks of the mei-yu rainfall. Two scales of convective organization are found d...

Comparing Occurrences and Vertical Structures of Hydrometeors between Eastern China and the Indian Monsoon Region Using CloudSat/CALIPSO Data

Abstract Seasonal variations in the occurrence frequency, vertical location, and radar reflectivity factor (dBZ) of hydrometeors covering eastern China and the Indian monsoon region are described using two CloudSat standard products [Geometrical Profiling Product (GEOPROF) and GEOPROF-lidar] during the period July 2006–August 2007. The 14-month averaged hydrometeor occurrence frequency is 80% (for eastern China) and 70% (for Indian region), respectively, to which multilayer (mostly double or triple layers) hydrometeors contribute 37% and 47%. A significant increase in the multilayer hydrometeor amount from winter to summer in the Indian region causes a pronounced seasonal variation in its total hydrometeor amount. The nearly opposite phases in the seasonal variations of single- and multilayer hydrometeor amounts result in little change with season in total hydrometeor amount in eastern China. Although the passive sensor-based satellite cloud product is able to provide the major seasonal features in the hy...

Initiation, maintenance, and properties of convection in an extreme rainfall event during SCMREX: Observational analysis

A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS) with extreme rainfall over the western coastal region of Guangdong on 10 May 2013 during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) is studied. The environmental conditions are characterized by little convective inhibition, low-lifting condensation level, moderate convective available potential energy and precipitable water, and lack of low-level jets from the tropical ocean. Repeated convective back building and subsequent northeastward “echo training” of convective cells are found during the MCSs development stages. However, the initiation/maintenance factors and organization of convection differ significantly during the earlier and later stages. From midnight to early morning, convection is continuously initiated as southeasterly flows near the surface impinge on the east side of mesoscale mountains near the coastal lines and then moves northeastward, leading to formation of two quasi-stationary rainbands. From early morning to early afternoon, new convection is repeatedly triggered along a mesoscale boundary between precipitation-induced cold outflows and warm air from South China Sea and Gulf of Tokin, resulting in the formation of “band training” of several parallel rainbands that move eastward in a later time, i.e., two scales of “training” of convective elements are found. As the MCS dissipates, a stronger squall line moves into the region from the west and passes over within about 3.5u2009h, contributing about 10%–15% to the total rainfall amount. It is concluded that terrain, near-surface winds, warm advection from the upstream ocean in the boundary layer, and precipitation-generated cold outflows play important roles in initiating and maintaining the extreme rain-producing MCS.

The atmospheric anomalies associated with the drought over the Yangtze River basin during spring 2011

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin (MLRY) suffered a once-in-a-50-year drought during the spring of 2011. The abnormality of the atmospheric circulation in the spring is characterized by the deeper-than-normal trough over East Asia and the northwest Pacific while stronger-than-normal high-pressure system over the west, which results in a stronger-than-normal meridional circulation. Meanwhile, the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker than normal and retreats to the east, so the spring monsoonal moist air from lower latitudes is relatively weak. The anomalous northerly wind in higher latitudes suppresses the northward motion of the moist air and brings dry air to the MLRY. The northerly wind also suppresses the northward motion of warm air and brings cold air to the MLRY. So finally, the air over the MLRY is drier, but colder than normal, which is different from many other droughts. The coldness of the air plays a negative role to the drought. Results from comparing the Cq and CT, the measures of the changes in moisture and temperature between this spring and the normal spring defined based on the tight precipitation-relative humidity relation, indicate that the dryness of the air is much stronger than the coldness, and the air over the MLRY thus maintains a lower-than-normal relative humidity. The animation of daily Cq and CT shows that dry and cold air moves from the northwest to the MLRY in a manner of low-frequency oscillation.

The Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX)

AbstractDuring the presummer rainy season (April–June), southern China often experiences frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall, leading to severe flooding and inundations. To expedite the efforts in improving the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) of the presummer rainy season rainfall, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) initiated a nationally coordinated research project, namely, the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) that was endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a research and development project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The SCMREX RDP (2013–18) consists of four major components: field campaign, database management, studies on physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall events, and convection-permitting numerical experiments including impact of data assimilation, evaluation/improvement of model physics, and ensemble prediction. The pilot field campaigns were carried out from early May to mid-June of 2013–15. This paper: i...

Changes of summer precipitation in China: The dominance of frequency and intensity and linkage with changes in moisture and air temperature

Using observed precipitation and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis, the changes in the metrics of the summer precipitation in China, the dominance of frequency and intensity of daily extreme precipitation, and the linkage with changes in moisture and air temperature are explored. Results show that over the recent 50u2009years, the total summer rainfall increased over the southeast and the west and decreased over the northeast. The changes in the frequency, identified with the 95% threshold and Poisson regression, and rainfall extremes show similar spatial patterns. The relative importance of the changes in frequency and intensity in the variability and changes in extreme precipitation are estimated. It is shown that, while the interannual variability of the rainfall amount is dominated by the frequency change in almost all stations, the long-term change of rainfall amount can be dominated by both frequency and intensity, depending on the station. The change in the rainfall total is linked to changes in atmospheric moisture and temperature. The results show that the variability and change of the rainfall total can be dominated by changes in both moisture and air temperature, and the relative importance depends on the region.

Investigation of the predictability and physical mechanisms of an extreme‐rainfall‐producing mesoscale convective system along the Meiyu front in East China: An ensemble approach

Forecast uncertainties and physical mechanisms of a quasi-linear extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS) along the Meiyu front in East China, during the midnight-to-morning hours on 8 July 2007, are studied using ensembles of 24u2009h convection-permitting simulations with a nested grid spacing of 1.11u2009km. The simulations reveal a strong sensitivity to uncertainties in the initial state despite the synoptic environment being favorable for heavy rainfall production. Linear changes of a less skillful members initial state toward that of a skillful member lead to a monotonic improvement in the precipitation simulation, with the most significant contribution arising from changes in the moisture field. Sensitivity to physics parameterizations representing subgrid-scale processes fail to account for the larger simulation errors (missing the MCS) with the physics variation examined but could result in a large spread in the location and amount of accumulative rainfall. A robust feature of the best-performing members that reasonably simulate the MCS-associated heavy rainfall is the presence of a cold dome ahead of the Meiyu front generated by previous convection. The cold dome promotes nocturnal convective initiation by lifting high equivalent potential temperature air in the southwesterly flow to its level of free convection. The skillful members reproduce the convective backbuilding and echo-band training processes that are observed during this event and many other heavy rainfall events over China. In contrast, the less skillful members that miss the development of the MCS either do not simulate the previous convection or produce a cold dome that is too shallow to initiate the MCS.