Yan Boulanger

Postfire succession of saproxylic arthropods, with emphasis on coleoptera, in the north boreal forest of Quebec.

Abstract Saproxylic succession in fire-killed black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] coarse woody debris (CWD) in northern Quebec is estimated in this study using a 29-yr postfire chronosequence. Sampling was performed using both trunk-window traps and rearing from snag and log sections. A total of 37,312 arthropods (>220 taxa) were collected from both sampling methods. Two distinct colonization waves were identified. The onset of initial colonization occurs the year of the fire, whereas the second colonization phase begins only once debris falls to the ground. The initial colonization step is influenced by fire-associated species including subcortical predators, xylophages, and ascomycetes feeders. Abundance of most early colonizer species decline with time since fire with the disappearance of subcortical habitat. No noticeable species turnover occurred in snags thereafter. Lack of succession in snags is related to very low decomposition rates for postfire CWD because this substrate is unsuitable for species associated with highly decayed wood. Snag falling triggers fungal growth and concomitant saproxylic succession toward micro- and saprophagous species and increases accessibility for soil-dwelling organisms. Because the position of woody debris greatly influences overall physical properties of dead wood, the fall of burned CWD plays a major role in saproxylic community shift after fire.

Fire regime zonation under current and future climate over eastern Canada

Fire is a major disturbance in Canadian forests. Along with fuel and ignition characteristics, climatic conditions are seen as one of the main drivers of fire regimes. Projected changes in climate are expected to significantly influence fire regimes in Canada. As fire regime greatly shapes large-scale patterns in biodiversity, carbon, and vegetation, as well as forest and fire management strategies, it becomes necessary to define regions where current and future fire regimes are homogeneous. Random Forests (RF) modeling was used to relate fire regime attributes prevailing between 1961 and 1990 in eastern Canada with climatic/fire-weather and environmental variables. Using climatic normals outputs from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), we delineated current (1961-1990) and future (2011-2040, 2040-2070, 2071 2100) homogeneous fire regime (HFR) zones. Heterogeneous response of fire regime to climate changes is projected for eastern Canada with some areas (e.g., western Quebec) experiencing very small alterations while others (e.g., southeastern Ontario) are facing great shifts. Overall, models predicted a 2.2- and 2.4-fold increase in the number of fires and the annual area burned respectively mostly as a result of an increase in extreme fire-weather normals and mean drought code. As extreme fire danger would occur later in the fire season on average, the fire season would shift slightly later (5-20 days) in the summer for much of the study area while remaining relatively stable elsewhere. Although fire regime values would change significantly over time, most zone boundaries would remain relatively stable. The information resulting from HFR zonations is clearly of interest for forest and fire management agencies as it reveals zones with peculiar fire regimes that would have been hidden otherwise using predefined administrative or ecological stratifications.

An alternative fire regime zonation for Canada

The ability of national and multipurpose ecological classification systems to provide an optimal zonation for a fire regime is questionable. Using wildfire (>1 ha) point data for the 1980–99 period, we defined zones with a homogeneous fire regime (HFR) across Canada and we assessed how these differ from the National Ecological Framework for Canada (NEFC) units of corresponding scale, i.e. ecoprovinces. Two HFR zonations were produced through spatially constrained clustering of (i) 1600-km2 cells and (ii) the smallest units of the NEFC system, i.e. ecodistricts, using attributes for natural and anthropogenic fires. Thirty-three HFR zones were identified. HFR zonations showed smaller differences among each other than with NEFC ecoprovinces. Comparisons with ecoprovinces suggested general agreement of generalised fire regime values with HFR zones but with poor zone boundary correspondence. Ecoprovince zonation led to an overgeneralisation of fire regime estimates with less variation captured than by the HFR zonations, especially that using gridded fixed-area cells. Estimates of fire-return interval strongly differed between a priori and HFR zonations. The use of large-scale NEFC units or a zonation using its smallest units may constrain our ability to accurately quantify and portray fire regime variability across the country. The alternative empirical HFR zonation using gridded cells refines the location and nature of fire risk.

Climate change impacts on forest landscapes along the Canadian southern boreal forest transition zone

ContextForest landscapes at the southern boreal forest transition zone are likely to undergo great alterations due to projected changes in regional climate.ObjectivesWe projected changes in forest landscapes resulting from four climate scenarios (baseline, RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), by simulating changes in tree growth and disturbances at the southern edge of Canada’s boreal zone.MethodsProjections were performed for four regions located on an east–west gradient using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS).ResultsClimate-induced changes in the competitiveness of dominant tree species due to changes in potential growth, and substantial intensification of the fire regime, appear likely to combine in driving major changes in boreal forest landscapes. Resulting cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems would be manifold but key changes would include (i) a strong decrease in the biomass of the dominant boreal species, especially mid- to late-successional conifers; (ii) increases in abundance of some temperate species able to colonize disturbed areas in a warmer climate; (iii) increases in the proportions of pioneer and fire-adapted species in these landscapes and (iv) an overall decrease in productivity and total biomass. The greatest changes would occur under the RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenario, but some impacts can be expected even with RCP 2.6.ConclusionsWestern boreal forests, i.e., those bordering the prairies, are the most vulnerable because of a lack of species adapted to warmer climates and major increases in areas burned. Conservation and forest management planning within the southern boreal transition zone should consider both disturbance- and climate-induced changes in forest communities.

Distribution Patterns of Three Long-Horned Beetles (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) Shortly After Fire in Boreal Forest: Adults Colonizing Stands Versus Progeny Emerging from Trees

ABSTRACT We identified the factors that affect the early colonization of burned stands by adults and the progeny surviving in fire-killed black spruce trees for three cerambycid beetles: Acmaeops proteus proteus (Kirby), Acmaeops pratensis (Laicharting), and Monochamus scutellatus scutellatus (Say) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in the northern Canadian boreal forest. Furthermore, we measured if progeny emerging from burned trees was related to patterns of adults captured in traps the same year as the fire. Fire severity at the stand and landscape scales were the most important predictors for colonizing adults. Except for A. pratensis, thick-barked and lightly burned trees positively influenced the occurrence of surviving progeny at the tree level. Last-instar larvae of A. pratensis emerged from burned trees more often in severely burned landscapes. This may result from biotic interactions with intraguild species or predators. With the exception of A. pratensis, variables affecting the postfire abundance and occurrence pattern of adults were strikingly different from progeny emerging after fire. Progeny emerging from burned trees was almost exclusively related to tree- or stand level characteristics, whereas colonizing adults were correlated with variables measured at various spatial scales, and most often at the landscape scale. Moreover, A. proteus proteus and M. scutellatus scutellatus adults were more common in severely burned landscapes, although their progeny emerged more often in lightly or moderately burned trees. Host selection behavior within stands (e.g., host acceptance) by colonizing adults or host suitability for the larvae might have caused this discrepancy.

Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak.

Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest.

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

Characterizing combined fire and insect outbreak disturbance regimes in British Columbia, Canada

ContextFires and insect outbreaks are important agents of forest landscape change, but the classification and distribution of these combined processes remain unstudied aspects of forest disturbance regimes.ObjectivesWe sought to map areas of land characterized by homogenous fire regime (HFR) attributes and by distinctive combinations of fire, bark beetles and defoliating insect outbreaks, and how their distribution might change should current climatic trends continue.MethodsWe used a 41-year history of mapped fires and forest insect outbreaks to classify HFRs and combined fire and insect disturbance regimes (HDRs). Spatially constrained cluster analysis of 2524 20-km grid cells used mean annual area burned, ignition Julian date, fire size and fire frequency to delineate HFR zones. Mean annual areas burned, affected by bark beetles, and affected by defoliators were used to delineate HDR zones. Random forests classification used climate associations of HDRs to project likely changes in their distribution.ResultsEighteen HFR zones accounted for 30% of variance, compared to 27 HDR zones accounting for 59% of variance. Fire regime designation had low predictive power in explaining 23 homogenous insect outbreak regimes or the 27 HDRs. Climate change projections indicate a northward migration of current HDR zones. Conditions suitable for defoliator outbreaks are projected to increase, resulting in a projected increase in the total rate of forest disturbance.ConclusionsWhen describing forest disturbance regimes, it is important to consider the combined and possibly interacting agents of tree mortality, which can result in emergent properties not predictable from any single agent.

Stand‐level drivers most important in determining boreal forest response to climate change

1.Forest ecosystems contain several climate-sensitive drivers that respond differentially to changes in climate and climate variability. For example, growth and regeneration processes are “stand-scale” drivers, while natural disturbances operate at “landscape-scale”. The relative contributions of these different scale drivers of change in ecosystems create great uncertainty when simulating potential responses of a forest to changes in climate. 2.Here we assess those contributions, along with harvesting effects, on biomass (both total and of individual species) in the southern boreal forest of Canada under three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 3.Projections were performed for three future 30-year time periods, in four study regions located on an east-west transect, using a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II), parameterized using a forest patch model (PICUS). Projected future impacts were assessed for each driver of change, and found to vary greatly among regions, species, future period, and forcing scenarios. Fire, and stand-scale climate-induced impacts, had the strongest effects on forest vegetation, as well as on total and species’ biomass under most RCP scenarios, but the largest impacts occurred mostly after 2050, particularly with the RCP 8.5 scenario. 4.The relative importance and trends in species-specific impacts varied, both spatially and according to the different RCP scenarios. Western regions were generally more sensitive to stand-scale climate-induced changes whereas eastern regions were more sensitive to changes in fire regime. Our study also highlights the importance of considering the prevalence of species-level functional traits when assessing the sensitivity of forest landscapes to a given driver of change in the context of increasing anthropogenic climate forcing. 5.Synthesis. Increases in fire activity, and direct impacts of climate change on forest growth and regeneration, will be the most important drivers of future changes in southern boreal forest landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Model-specification uncertainty in future area burned by wildfires in Canada

Climate change will drive significant changes in annual area burned (burning rates) in the boreal forest although the trends, which are highly variable among studies, which may be caused by model specifications. In order to investigate this, we used 100 models predicting burning rates that are based on two predictor datasets (annual or 30-year averages) and five statistical algorithms (generalised linear model (GLM), random forest, gradient-boosted model (GBM), regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)) to build a consensus model projecting future burning rates in boreal Canada with three global climate models (GCMs) (CanESM2, HadGEM and MIROC) and three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Results of the ensemble models were then used to quantify and map the uncertainty created by model specifications. The consensus model projects strong increase (>4-fold by 2080s) in burning rates, particularly under high climate-forcing scenarios. Even with very high goodness-of-fit in the consensus model, the model-specification uncertainty for future periods (>200%) could still be much higher than that of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. When tallied, we show that the total uncertainty could greatly hinder our ability to detect significant trends in burning rates for much of Canada at the end of the 21st century.