Yanbin Lei

Response of inland lake dynamics over the Tibetan Plateau to climate change

The water balance of inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) involves complex hydrological processes; their dynamics over recent decades is a good indicator of changes in water cycle under rapid global warming. Based on satellite images and extensive field investigations, we demonstrate that a coherent lake growth on the TP interior (TPI) has occurred since the late 1990s in response to a significant global climate change. Closed lakes on the TPI varied heterogeneously during 1976–1999, but expanded coherently and significantly in both lake area and water depth during 1999–2010. Although the decreased potential evaporation and glacier mass loss may contribute to the lake growth since the late 1990s, the significant water surplus is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation, which, in turn, may be related to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, including the intensified Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon (NHSM) circulation and the poleward shift of the Eastern Asian westerlies jet stream.

Extensive and drastically different alpine lake changes on Asia's high plateaus during the past four decades

Asias high plateaus are sensitive to climate change and have been experiencing rapid warming over the past few decades. We found 99 new lakes and extensive lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau during the last four decades, 1970-2013, due to increased precipitation and cryospheric contributions to its water balance. This contrasts with disappearing lakes and drastic shrinkage of lake areas on the adjacent Mongolian Plateau: 208 lakes disappeared, and 75% of the remaining lakes have shrunk. We detected a statistically significant coincidental timing of lake area changes in both plateaus, associated with the climate regime shift that occurred during 1997/1998. This distinct change in 1997/1998 is thought to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in response to climate warming. Our findings reveal that these two adjacent plateaus have been changing in opposite directions in response to climate change. These findings shed light on the complex role of the regional climate and water cycles and provide useful information for ecological and water resource planning in these fragile landscapes.

Quantifying evaporation and its decadal change for Lake Nam Co, central Tibetan Plateau

Most lakes in the interior Tibetan Plateau have expanded rapidly since the late 1990s. Because of a lack of observations, lake water balances and their changes are far from well understood. Evaporation is a component of the lake water balance, and this study quantifies its magnitude, decadal change, and its contribution to the water balance changes in Lake Nam Co, one of the largest lakes on the Tibetan Plateau (with an area of approximately 2000 km2 and a mean depth of approximately 40 m). The lake temperature and the evaporation are simulated by the Flake model. The simulation results are validated against observed lake temperature profile from 2013 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer lake surface temperature data from 2000 to 2014. The simulated latent heat flux and sensible heat flux are validated against Bowen ratio-derived estimates for 2013. Based on the validated simulation results, the long-term mean annual evaporation is approximately 832 ± 69 mm, and this value is much less than the potential evaporation estimated using the Penman-Monteith equation. The annual evaporation from 1980 to 2014 displays a complex decadal oscillation, mainly due to the changes in energy-related terms (air temperature and radiation). The mean lake evaporation since the late 1990s is greater than previous periods; thus, this change in evaporation has suppressed the recent expansion of Nam Co.

A 2540-year record of moisture variations derived from lacustrine sediment (Sasikul Lake) on the Pamir Plateau

Although the Pamir Plateau is an ideal place to investigate paleo-environmental changes in the westerlies-dominated high Central Asia, there are only few Holocene records from this region. We present a sub-centennially resolved lacustrine record of moisture variations from Sasikul Lake, central Pamir Plateau, based on geochemical, sedimentological, and mineralogical proxies. Our results show that generally dry conditions at Sasikul Lake during the past 2540 years were interrupted by a pronounced wet period between ad 1550 and 1900, corresponding to the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA). More negative values of carbonate δ18O, lower total inorganic carbon (TIC) and sand content during the LIA all indicate a relatively wet period with higher lake level. Higher TIC during the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP; ad 950–1200) reveals a lower lake level relative to the LIA. Low δ18O during this time is probably attributed to changes in the isotopic composition of input water and/or upstream moisture sources. The significant increase in detrital minerals and decrease in carbonate during the LIA provide further evidence for higher allochthonous input during the wet period at Sasikul Lake. The inferred moisture variations are consistent with existing records from regions of the northern Tibetan Plateau and Central Asia that are also influenced by the westerlies, but out-of-phase with those records from the Asian monsoon region, indicating that moisture variations at Sasikul Lake were mainly influenced by the strength and trajectories of the westerlies. The inferred water level at Sasikul Lake decreased significantly during the first half of the 20th century, and then increased in recent decades. This is consistent with the increase in lake area derived from satellite images and the monitoring data of large lake-level changes in Central Asia.

Late-Holocene Indian summer monsoon variability revealed from a 3300-year-long lake sediment record from Nir’pa Co, southeastern Tibet

Sedimentological and geochemical results from Nir’pa Co, an alpine lake on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, detail late-Holocene Indian summer monsoon (ISM) hydroclimate during the last 3300 years. Constrained by modern calibration, elevated silt and lithics and low sand and clay between 3.3 and 2.4 ka and 1.3 ka and the present indicate two pluvial phases with lake levels near their current overflow elevation. Between 2.4 and 1.3 ka, a sharp increase in sand and corresponding decrease in lithics and silt suggest drier conditions and lower lake levels at Nir’pa Co. Hydroclimate expressions in the sedimentological proxies during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) are not statistically significant, suggesting that these events were minor compared to the millennial scale variability on which they were superimposed. However, decreasing sand and increasing lithics and silt during the MCA between 950 and 800 cal. yr BP may suggest briefly wetter conditions, while increasing sand and reduced lithics and silt from 500 to 200 cal. yr BP suggest potentially drier conditions during the LIA. Similarities with regional records from lake sediment and ice cores and speleothem records from the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau, India, and the Arabian Sea, suggest generally coherent late-Holocene ISM variability in these regions. Increased late-Holocene ISM intensity occurred during times when Tibetan Plateau surface air temperatures were warmer, Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures were elevated, and the tropical Pacific was in a La Niña–like mean state. Conversely, aridity between 2.4 and 1.3 ka occurred in concert with cooling on the Tibetan Plateau and in the Indo-Pacific with more El Niño–like conditions in the tropical Pacific. Differences with western Tibetan records may reflect a weakened ISM and stronger westerlies in this region during the late-Holocene.