Yann Videau

'Time is costly': modelling the macroeconomic impact of scaling-up antiretroviral treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Macroeconomic policy requirements may limit the capacity of national and international policy-makers to allocate sufficient resources for scaling-up access to HIV care and treatment in developing countries. Method: An endogenous growth model, which takes into account the evolution of societys human capital, was used to assess the macroeconomic impact of policies aimed at scaling-up access to HIV/AIDS treatment in six African countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Ivory Coast and Zimbabwe). Results: The model results showed that scaling-up access to treatment in the affected population would limit gross domestic product losses due to AIDS although differently from country to country. In our simulated scenarios of access to antiretroviral therapy, only 10.3% of the AIDS shock is counterbalanced in Zimbabwe, against 85.2% in Angola and even 100.0% in Benin (a total recovery). For four out of the six countries (Angola, Benin, Cameroon, Ivory Coast), the macro-economic gains of scaling-up would become potentially superior to its associated costs in 2010. Conclusion: Despite the variability of HIV prevalence rates between countries, macro-economic estimates strongly suggest that a massive investment in scaling-up access to HIV treatment may efficiently counteract the detrimental long-term impact of the HIV pandemic on economic growth, to the extent that the AIDS shock has not already driven the economy beyond an irreversible ‘no-development epidemiological trap’.

Why Patients of Low Socioeconomic Status with Mental Health Problems Have Shorter Consultations with General Practitioners

Objective Poor people receive shorter consultations in general practice than more affluent people. Our aim was to study the two reasons generally advanced for this for patients consulting with mental health problems: people of low socioeconomic status (SES) demand shorter consultations or they tend to match with practitioners who devote little time to their patients. Methods Of 600 general practitioners (GPs), 144 agreed to participate. During the study period (2005), 713 patients consulted with mental health problems of whom 405 (56.8%) completed questionnaires. Of these, 144 (34.8%) were defined as suffering from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). Multilevel modelling was used to explore the relationship between patient and GP characteristics, and duration of the consultation. Results A multivariate model found two significant patient variables for the consultation duration: severity of MDD symptoms (P = 0.01) and SES (proxied by education level, P = 0.05). The multilevel model including GPs’ characteristics demonstrated that the apparent correlation between patients’ SES and consultation length was due to a confounding factor: low SES patients were visiting GPs who are, generally, providing shorter consultations (P < 0.001). With the SES variable no longer significant: P = 0.2, although severity of symptoms remained in the model (P = 0.001). Conclusion The shortness of the consultation length is due to a supply-side effect, implicating dissatisfaction for patients with mental health problems. This may not be generalizable to other patients. Findings are in favour of a specific intervention aimed at giving poor people equal access to GPs’ time.