Yannis G. Dialynas

A multivariate stochastic model for the generation of synthetic time series at multiple time scales reproducing long-term persistence

A time series generator is presented, employing a robust three-level multivariate scheme for stochastic simulation of correlated processes. It preserves the essential statistical characteristics of historical data at three time scales (annual, monthly, daily), using a disaggregation approach. It also reproduces key properties of hydrometeorological and geophysical processes, namely the long-term persistence (Hurst-Kolmogorov behaviour), the periodicity and intermittency. Its efficiency is illustrated through two case studies in Greece. The first aims to generate monthly runoff and rainfall data at three reservoirs of the hydrosystem of Athens. The second involves the generation of daily rainfall for flood simulation at five rain gauges. In the first emphasis is given to long-term persistence - a dominant characteristic in the management of large-scale hydrosystems, comprising reservoirs with carry-over storage capacity. In the second we highlight to the consistent representation of intermittency and asymmetry of daily rainfall, and the distribution of annual daily maxima. We provide a multivariate generator based on a three-level disaggregation scheme.The model preserves the statistical behaviour of observed data at multiple scales.Long-term persistence is reproduced through a used-defined autocovariance function.Highly-skewed and intermittent processes, e.g. rainfall, are effectively modelled.The methodology is applicable for both steady-state and terminating simulations.

Topographic variability and the influence of soil erosion on the carbon cycle

Soil erosion, particularly that caused by agriculture, is closely linked to the global carbon (C) cycle. There is a wide range of contrasting global estimates of how erosion alters soil-atmosphere C exchange. This can be partly attributed to limited understanding of how geomorphology, topography, and management practices affect erosion and oxidation of soil organic C (SOC). This work presents a physically based approach that stresses the heterogeneity at fine spatial scales of SOC erosion, SOC burial, and associated soil-atmosphere C fluxes. The Holcombes Branch watershed, part of the Calhoun Critical Zone Observatory in South Carolina, USA, is the case study used. The site has experienced some of the most serious agricultural soil erosion in North America. We use SOC content measurements from contrasting soil profiles and estimates of SOC oxidation rates at multiple soil depths. The methodology was implemented in the tRIBS-ECO (Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-Erosion and Carbon Oxidation), a spatially and depth-explicit model of SOC dynamics built within an existing coupled physically based hydro-geomorphic model. According to observations from multiple soil profiles, about 32% of the original SOC content has been eroded in the study area. The results indicate that C erosion and its replacement exhibit significant topographic variation at relatively small scales (tens of meters). The episodic representation of SOC erosion reproduces the history of SOC erosion better than models that use an assumption of constant erosion in space and time. The net atmospheric C exchange at the study site is estimated to range from a maximum source of 14.5 g m−2 yr−1 to a maximum sink of −18.2 g m−2 yr−1. The small-scale complexity of C erosion and burial driven by topography exerts a strong control on the landscapes capacity to serve as a C source or a sink.

Impact of hydrologically driven hillslope erosion and landslide occurrence on soil organic carbon dynamics in tropical watersheds

The dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Past attempts to quantify the net C exchange with the atmosphere in regional and global budgets do not systematically account for dynamic feedbacks among linked hydrological, geomorphological, and biogeochemical processes, which control the fate of SOC. Here we quantify effects of geomorphic perturbations on SOC oxidation and accumulation in two adjacent wet tropical forest watersheds underlain by contrasting lithology (volcaniclastic rock and quartz diorite) in the Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory. This study uses the spatially-explicit and physically-based model of SOC dynamics tRIBS-ECO (Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-Erosion and Carbon Oxidation) and measurements of SOC profiles and oxidation rates. Our results suggest that hillslope erosion at the two watersheds may drive C sequestration or CO2 release to the atmosphere, depending on the forest type and land use. The net erosion-induced C exchange with the atmosphere was controlled by the spatial distribution of forest types. The two watersheds were characterized by significant erosion and dynamic replacement of upland SOC stocks. Results suggest that the landscape underlain by volcaniclastic rock has reached a state close to geomorphic equilibrium, and the landscape underlain by quartz diorite is characterized by greater rates of denudation. These findings highlight the importance of the spatially-explicit and physical representation of C erosion driven by local variation in lithological and geomorphological characteristics and in forest cover. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Hydro‐geomorphic perturbations on the soil‐atmosphere CO2 exchange: How (un)certain are our balances?

Attempts to estimate the influence of erosion on the carbon (C) cycle are limited by difficulties in accounting for the fate of mobilized organic material and for the uncertainty associated with land management practices. This study proposes a method to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the influence of land management on soil organic C (SOC) generation and decomposition at eroding soils. The framework is implemented in tRIBS-ECO (Triangulated Irregular Network-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-Erosion and Carbon Oxidation). tRIBS-ECO is a spatially and depth-explicit model of C dynamics coupled with a process-based hydro-geomorphic model. We assess the impact of soil erosion on the net soil-atmosphere CO2 exchange at the Calhoun Critical Zone Observatory, one of the most severely agriculturally eroded regions in the U.S. Measurements of SOC storage are used from different catena positions. We demonstrate that the spatiotemporal variations of land management practices introduce significant uncertainty in estimates of the erosion-induced CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. Observations and simulations suggest that a substantial portion of eroded organic material is buried in alluvial sediments at the study site. According to results, recent reforestation led to a partial decline in soil and SOC erosion rates. It is suggested that the representation of the fine spatiotemporal variability of the dynamics of eroded C is important in the computation of C budgets in regional and global scales.