Yanrui Wu

Is China's economic growth sustainable? A productivity analysis

Abstract Since the initiative of economic reform in the late 1970s, the Chinese economy has sustained a continuously high rate of annual growth. This seemingly miraculous growth has attracted the attention of many economists in the world. In particular, major efforts have been made to examine the role of efficiency and productivity in economic growth in the postreform mainland Chinese economy and hence, to understand whether Chinas economic growth is sustainable or not. However, most previous studies have focused only on the industrial or agricultural sectors, perhaps due to the limitation of statistics. This paper presents an economy-wide study and hence attempts to fill the void in the literature. A stochastic frontier method is used to estimate productivity growth, which is decomposed into two components: technological progress and efficiency change. The former refers to shifts in the frontier and the latter to movement towards the frontier. Applying the newly released regional GDP data, this study aims to: (1) examine the contribution of productivity to economic growth in China, (2) investigate the sources of productivity growth in the reforming Chinese economy, and (3) shed some light on the trend of convergence and catch-up in terms of productivity performance among Chinas regional economies in the 1980s and 1990s.

China's Economic Growth : A Miracle with Chinese Characteristics

1. Growing with Chinese Characteristics: An Introduction Part One: Growth at the Macro Level 2. Capital Formation and Growth 3. Sources of Growth 4. The role of Productivity Part Two: Growth in Regional Perspectives 5. Regional Growth, Disparity and Convergence 6. Integration and Growth in South China Part Three: Growing Through Deregulation at the Industry Level 7. Deregulation and Growth in Telecommunications Industry 8. Deregulation and Growth in the Energy Sector 9. Conclusion

The dynamic interrelationships between the greater China share markets

This paper investigates the interrelationships between prices on the mainland Chinese share market and those in the neighbouring markets of Hong Kong and Taiwan. While there is a growing literature on interrelationships between share market including the emerging markets in Asia, very little is known about the role of mainland markets in the region. We consider the interrelationships between the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and those in Hong Kong and Taiwan. We begin by combining the Shanghai and Shenzhen price indexes into a single value-weighted index and investigating its relationship to the indexes for Hong Kong and Taiwan. We find that the mainland markets are relatively isolated from the other two markets considered, although after the Asian crisis there is evidence that Hong Kong has weak predictive power for returns in the mainland. Hong Kong also clearly Granger-causes Taiwan although the reverse is not true. Both Hong Kong and Taiwan have strong contemporaneous relationships, a feature which is more market after the Asian crisis. We also analysed the two mainland markets separately, both by themselves and with Hong Kong. We found some predictability of thes prices in one market on the basis of lagged prices in the other although this was less apparent after the Asian crisis. Both before and after 1997, there were strong contemporaneous relationships between the two mainland markets, vindicating our earlier decision to treat them as a single market.

The efficiency of the Chinese stock market and the role of the banks

Abstract This paper examines the weak market efficiency and the role of the banks in the Chinese stock market. We consider both A and B shares traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges using daily data for seven indexes for the period 1992–2001. We begin by an examination of the weak EMH and find evidence of departures from weak efficiency in the form of predictability of returns on the basis of their own past values. Over the period as a whole this was most marked for the B shares in both the exchanges and absent altogether in the index for the 30 leading stocks on the Shanghai market, suggesting that previously reported predictability may simply reflect thin trading. We go on to examine whether the efficiency was affected when banks were excluded from the stock market in 1996 and subsequently re-admitted in early 2000. We find that efficiency tended to be adversely affected when the banks were excluded.

Deregulation and growth in China's energy sector: a review of recent development☆

Dramatic changes have taken place in Chinas energy sector over the past decade. These changes have important implications for energy consumption, trade, production and regulatory policies in China and beyond. The objective of this paper is to examine some of the key issues associated with deregulation and growth in Chinas energy sector. Specifically, the paper presents a review of the recent reforms in this sector; it also analyses the impact of deregulation on energy policy, ownership, foreign investment and trade, and sheds some lights on the sources of growth in Chinas energy sector.

Has Productivity Contributed to China's Growth?

This paper applies an extended Solow approach to examine the role of productivity in Chinas economic growth. The extended Solow approach allows the decomposition of output growth into factor contributions, technological progress and efficiency change. It is found that total factor productivity (TFP) has on average contributed to 13.5 percent of Chinas economic growth in the past two decades. This contribution is mainly due to technological progress which tends to accelerate over time. However, during 1982-97 efficiency change due to catch-up has been very volatile, reflecting the uncertainties associated with economic reforms and transition in China.

The role of productivity in China's growth: new estimates

The impressive growth of the Chinese economy in the past three decades has attracted a lot of attention and hence the research interest of many scholars and policy makers. One of the focuses in the literature is the role of productivity in Chinas economic growth. This paper aims to revisit the debate about the role of productivity in Chinas growth, to provide an updated estimate of productivity growth and hence to make a contribution to the understanding of Chinas economic growth in recent years. Its objective is to propose and apply a growth accounting technique to assess economic performance in China, in particular the role of technological progress in Chinas recent growth. The findings about the latter may have important policy implications for the sustainability of Chinas economic growth in the future.

Total factor productivity growth in China: a review

The debate on the role of total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinas rapid economic growth has led to the emergence of a large pool of papers on this topic. There is however hardly any consensus in the literature. This paper surveys 74 studies published from the 1990s onwards and employs meta-analysis to investigate whether the empirical findings are systematically affected by the choice of methods, selection of samples, and objectives of individual studies. Insights gained are used to draw implications for further studies.

Income disparity and convergence in China's regional economies

China in the Global Economy focuses on the theme of twin transitions occurring in the Chinese economy: the transition from a centrally planned economic system to a market oriented one, and from an agrarian to a modern industrialised society. China’s exporters face unprecedented competition in the world market and the flow of foreign direct investment has fallen restraining the growth of the domestic economy. These new challenges have fuelled debate on the perspective of the Chinese economy and its role in the global economy.

Regional Environmental Performance and its Determinants in China

A growing awareness of environmental quality has placed increased pressure on China to improve environmental protection and regulations in the country. How have the regional economies in the country performed in terms of environmental efficiency? The answer to this question is yet to be explored in the case of China. The objective of this paper is to present a quantitative analysis of environmental performance in Chinas regional economies and to examine the determinants of regional variation in performance. The findings are used to draw policy implications for environmental protection and are helpful in the discussion of Chinas future sustainable development.