Ye Qi

Interpreting China's carbon flows.

Feng et al. present an insightful analysis of China’s interregional carbon flows, using a consumption-based approach and multiple region input–output model (1). Their report shows convincingly that the production, consumption, and export of high-value goods and services in rich regions depend upon the emissions-intensive products from poorer regions in China, consistent with what has become clear about embodied carbon in international trade (1⇓–3). As the authors write: “…the high standard of living enjoyed by people in the richest countries often comes at the expense of CO2 emissions produced with technologies of low efficiency in less affluent, developing countries” (1). Their analysis demonstrates that, within China, more affluent coastal regions have “outsourced” large shares of their emissions to their less-developed counterparts inland. The implications, both positive and normative, must be seriously considered in domestic and international policymaking on climate, trade, and economic growth.

The Greenhouse Gas Footprint of China's Food System: An Analysis of Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

Food chain systems (FCSs), which begin in agricultural production and end in consumption and waste disposal, play a significant role in Chinas rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This article uses scenario analysis to show Chinas potential trajectories to a low‐carbon FCS. Between 1996 and 2010, the GHG footprint of Chinas FCSs increased from 1,308 to 1,618 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO‐eq), although the emissions intensity of all food categories, except for aquatic food, recorded steep declines. We project three scenarios to 2050 based on historical trends and plausible shifts in policies and environmental conditions: reference scenario; technology improvement scenario; and low GHG emissions scenario. The reference scenario is based on existing trends and exhibits a large growth in GHG emissions, increasing from 1,585 Mt CO‐eq in 2010 to 2,505 Mt CO‐eq in 2050. In the technology improvement scenario, emissions growth is driven by rising food demand, but that growth will be counterbalanced by gains in agricultural technology, causing GHG emissions to fall to 1,413 Mt CO‐eq by 2050. Combining technology improvement with the shift to healthier dietary patterns, GHG emissions in the low GHG emissions scenario will decline to 946 Mt CO‐eq in 2050, a drop of 41.5% compared with the level in 2010. We argue that these are realistic projections and are indeed indicative of Chinas overall strategy for low‐carbon development. Improving agricultural technology and shifting to a more balanced diet could significantly reduce the GHG footprint of Chinas FCSs. Furthermore, the transition to a low‐carbon FCS has potential cobenefits for land sustainability and public health.

The Role of Consumption in Peaking China's Carbon Emissions by 2030

China promised to peak its total carbon emissions by 2030. Various actions on both supply and demand sides have been studied to achieve the goal. However, should the consumption be influenced purposefully for environmental purposes is still been hotly debated in the literature. By re-conceptualizing the definition of consumption, this study combines various modeling techniques with input-output analysis and evaluates quantitatively the role of consumption in carbon peak by 2030. We find that, without proper interventions on technology and consumption levels, China’s energy use and carbon emissions will continuously increase without a peak before 2050. To achieve carbon peak by 2030, China would have to achieve higher energy efficiency. Alternatively, China can choose to influence the consumption levels of the domestic consumers. In this case, Chinese people will live a life which is still less wasteful than that in the USA but with the same living standards to those in Japan and European countries. However, the GDP output, in this case, is approximately 11% lower in 2050 than the counterpart when the consumption levels grow without control and ultimately exceed the US consumption levels.