Yehezkel Dror

Required breakthroughs in Think Tanks

Think Tanks were “invented” more than thirty-five years ago. However, their actual performance is rather disappointing, with most countries having none and with existing units not supplying essential inputs into public policymaking. Comparison of policymaking needs with actual contributions of Think Tanks highlights many deficits, caused by exogenous and endogenous variables. Harsher adversities facing policymaking make the contributions of Think Tanks all the more necessary, with no existing other institutions being able to substitute for their under-performance. Therefore, breakthroughs are required for upgrading the contributions of Think Tanks to policymaking.

A policy sciences view of future studies: Alternative futures and present action

Abstract : The paper discusses some main issues of policy-oriented future studies, from a policy sciences point of view and arrives at fifteen guidelines for such studies.

Adjusting the Central Mind of Governments To Adversity

Growing incapacities to govern result largely from the relative stability of core components of central mind of governments (CMG) for more than 5,000 years, as compared with jumps in conditions, demands and policy instruments. To better handle present and fore seeable adversities, selective-radicalism adjustments are therefore needed in CMG, within a broad approach to governance redesign. In particular, CMG needs upgrading in respect to reality assessment and outlook, overall and long range process-system view, coherence, fuzzy-gambling sophistication, grand-policy thinking, policy-paradigm iconoclasm, crisis decision-making capacities, creativity and innovativeness, realistic visions, constructive- destruction command authority enlightenment abilities and high-quality and rapid learn ing. To better realize such requisites, a number of main institutional recommendations are developed, including advanced supports for top decision makers, think tank clusters, novel policy professionals, task-force structures, policy-enlightenment systems for the public at large and policy effectiveness and policy-making process audit. In conclusion, governance retrofitting is proposed as a main concern for political science, together with other relevant disciplines.

The prediction of political feasibility

Abstract Some methods are proposed for the more systematic exploration of the feasibility of alternative government policies in a way operationally useful as part of policy analysis. The variables shaping political feasibility are investigated, and a method for its prediction is suggested

Memo for system-reforming rulers

This article examines some major problems of system reform from the top and presents improvement recommendations. Weakness in goal conceptions requires grand designs. Because of the long time that it takes to get results, staying power should be strengthened and promise of rapid benefits avoided. Turbulence is endemic to system reform, requiring use of robust ‘locomotives of change’ together with delineation of red lines beyond which disturbance is contained. Paradoxical processes pose catches making system reforms ‘gambles with history’, requiring a mix between consistency and learning. To overcome resistance and inertia, the building up of power concentrations is essential. To handle such system-reform problematics, special decision supports are proposed. Because system reform by rulers is an important mode of influencing the future, the subject is recommended as a focus for further study and improvement.

Visionary Political Leadership: On Improving a Risky Requisite:

Basic human needs combined with political processes and societal requirements periodically make visionary political leadership (VPL) unavoidable and functionally necessary. But VPL is highly risky, often leading to catastrophes. Foreseeable situations sharpen the dilemma, making VPL more likely and more necessary while also increasing its dangers, thanks to modern technologies. Therefore it is essential to improve VPL. Eight proposals for improvement are presented in this article: selection and election of VPL; training, education, and insight upgrading of VPL; advisory structures for VPL; practical vision developing organiza tions ; procedures for democratic choice among practical visions; special implementation instruments; procedures for removal of dangerous VPL; and international control and containment of fanatical VPL. The neoplatonic nature of such proposals is recognized. But without far-reaching innovations, there is no hope of improving VPL, its needed functions will not be properly satisfied, and, instead, serious consequences, because of its pathologies, will be unavoidable.

The role of futures in government

If current problems are to be successfully managed and not allowed to develop into crises, futures research must be incorporated into public policy making. This will require a variety of changes in the structure of government, the staffing of government, and the patterns of government decision making.

Nuclear Weapons in Third-world Conflict

The problems associated with nuclear proliferation suffer from much discussion and little analysis. The number of articles and conferences dealing with such problemsl taxes the reading and travelling capacity of anyone interested in the subject, and the repetition of opinions and prescriptions raises serious questions about the possible exhaustion of the ideas, methods and concepts of strategic studies. Although the technological and economic aspects of nuclear proliferation are quite fully explored in the literature,2 the strategic and security dimensions of nuclear weapons from a Third-world3 perspective are neglected and distorted in many, and perhaps most, of the relevant discussions.4 There is much that smacks of wishful thinking, distorted perceptions and analysis and attempts to ‘sell’ certain views, all of which tends to produce quite mistaken theories about the possible uses and misuses of nuclear weapons in Third-world conflicts.5

Alternative domestic political futures: Research needs and research design

Abstract The mission of this paper is to stimulate work on alternative futures of domestic politics. Such work should provide an essential and critical component of the kind of studies that presume to provide some prevision of the future, and should thereby serve as an aid for future-shaping policy-making. It includes two main parts. The first part discusses the present neglect of alternative domestic political futures (ADPF) and explains why ADPF should become a main concern of futures studies. The second part presents an initial design for the study of ADPF.

The Politics of Defense Allocations in Western Europe

This article discusses some features of the politics of defense allocations in Western Europe as a case of budgeting under conditions of diminishing capacity to govern, coupled with harsher constraints on public expenditures. While defense allocations have a number of unique characteristics, nevertheless they share many common features with other budgeting problems. Therefore, this case may also serve to bring out some of the growing problematics of budgeting traditions and budgeting practices as a whole.