Yeliz Yalcin

Turkish monetary policy and components of aggregate demand: a VAR analysis with sign restrictions model

This article estimates the effects of monetary policy on components of aggregate demand using quarterly data on Turkish economy from 1987–2008 by means of structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) methodology. This study adopts Uhligs (2005) sign restrictions on the impulse responses of main macroeconomic variables to identify monetary shock. This study finds that expansionary monetary policy stimulates output through consumption and investment in the short-run. However, expansionary monetary policy is ineffective in the long-run.

The Kalman filter method for break point estimation in unit root tests

In this study, in addition to Zivot–Andrews (1992), Perron (1997) and Schwarz Bayesian Criteria (SBC) approaches of the true break point estimation performances of the Kalman filter method is examined using Monte Carlo simulation experiments. Our simulation results show that the SBC and Kalman filter methods both exhibit a good performance in estimating true break point.

The effects of the exchange rate movements on the Istanbul stock exchange

This study examines the effects of exchange rate movements on the stock market in Turkey using a monthly VAR model for the period from January 1997 to November 2003. The full sample period contains two main changes in the exchange rate policy which happened in January 1990 and December 1999. To account for these changes, two different sub-periods January 1997 to November 1999 and January 2000 to November 2003 are also considered. The first period results indicate that there is a positive relationship between currency depreciation and most of the market indices. However, in the second period, the currency depreciation shows a negative impact in the initial level.