Yener Coskun

Does Re-Design of the Policies on Housing Finance and Supply Help to Solve Housing Question of Turkey?

Housing is one of the major socio-economic problems in Turkey. Widespread spontaneous settlements in urban area may be accepted as the sufficient criterion for the level of housing question in Turkey. Additionally, there are important quality problems in existing housing units. This problematic structure may be also explained by the lack of efficient housing policies and housing finance system. It seems after 2003 that housing policy of Turkey is essentially based on the Housing Development Administration_s (HDA) pragmatic approaches. In this context, we may argue that the current housing policy is one-dimensional and also would be unsustainable in some perspectives. In this experimental research, the author attempts to analyze limitations and clear/potential problems of the housing policies of HDA. We basically analyze whether affordable housing problem is minimize with alternative policies and required incentives. In this context, we review housing subsidies and PPPs as the instruments of alternative social/private rental housing supply models. In a broader perspective, the original contribution of this paper is to examine private rental housing, social rental housing, urban renewal, micro-finance and housing production of REITs as the alternative housing supply/finance models to improve affordable housing. We conclude that these alternative housing supply/finance models may improve housing affordability and hence minimize the housing question in Turkey, if they can optimally design and required incentives may meet by the central/local governments.

An Analysis of the Strenghts and Weaknesses of the Turkish Real Estate Market

Real estate is one of the foremost and traditional investments for Turkish household. In addition to this traditional demand, it has also observed that Turkish real estate market becomes one of the popular investment destination for foreign investors. 2003-2007 period would be accepted as the boom period for Turkish economy in general and real estate sector in specific. Although there are considerable opportunities in the market, both Turkish economy and real estate sector suffer important structural problems. Hence, the objective assesment for the Turkish real estate market requires a costbenefit analysis. In this paper, the author is attempting to reach an objective approach presenting both strong and also weak sides of market. The critical point is current deficiencies of the market may result negative impacts on further development. As a solution, we suggest that Real Estate Regulation and Supervision Agency should be established as a new government agency. To our view, primary expectation of this agency is to issue regulations/standards for real estate brokerage/ marketing/appraisal,and also housing finance to enhance consumer protection, public interest and market efficiency.

House price return volatility patterns in Turkey, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze volatility properties of the house price returns of Turkey and Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir provinces over the period of July 2007-June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses conditional variance models, namely, ARCH, GARCH and E-GARCH. As the supportive approach for the discussions, we also use correlation analysis and qualitative inputs. Findings Empirical findings suggest several points. First, city/country-level house price return volatility series display volatility clustering pattern and therefore volatilities in house price returns are time varying. Second, it seems that there were high (excess) and stable volatility periods during observation term. Third, a significant economic event may change country/city-level volatilities. In this context, the biggest and relatively persistent shock was the lagged negative shocks of global financial crisis. More importantly, short-lived political/economic shocks have not significant impacts on house price return volatilities in Turkey, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Fourth, however, house price return volatilities differ across geographic areas, volatility series may show some co-movement pattern. Fifth, volatility comparison across cities reveal that Izmir shows more excess volatility cases, Ankara recorded the highest volatility point and Istanbul and national series show lower and insignificant volatilities. Research limitations/implications The study uses maximum available data and focuses on some house price return volatility patterns. The first implication of the findings is that micro/macro dimensions of house price return volatilities should be carefully analyzed to forecast upside/downside risks of house price returns. Second, defined volatility clustering pattern implies that rate of return of housing investment may show specific patterns in some periods and volatile periods may result in some large losses in the returns. Third, model results generally suggest that however data constraint is a major problem, market participants should analyze regional idiosyncrasies during their decision-making in housing portfolio management. Fourth, because house prices are not sensitive to relatively less structural shocks, housing may represent long-term investment instrument if it provides satisfactory hedging from inflation. Originality/value The evidences and implications would be useful for housing market participants aiming to manage/use externalities of housing price movements. From a practical contribution perspective, the study provides a tool that will allow measuring first time of the return volatility patterns of house prices in Turkey and her three biggest provinces. Local level analysis for Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir provinces, as the globally fastest growing cities, would be found specifically interesting by international researchers and practitioner.

Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey

Abstract Housing prices have increased substantially in some emerging markets in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation. This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.

Is there a Housing Bubble in Turkey

Abstract There was a notable housing price inflation in aggregate/local levels in Turkey during the last few years. Although the country’s economic fundamentals remain strong, the probability of a housing bubble is a heated debate among market participants. This timely investigation brings greater clarity to whether the Turkish housing market is in a bubble. The study uses a multi-strand approach to dissect the bubble over the period of Jan. 2010 - Dec. 2014. First, monthly/annual price-to-income and monthly price-to-rent ratios are examined for the national Turkish as well as regional Istanbul, Izmir and Ankara housing markets. Second, an extended CASE and SHILLER (2003) model is applied assessing the interdependence between housing prices and a series of explanatory variables. Lastly, the Right Tail Augmented Dickey-Fuller (Rtadf) test is performed to support the overall analysis. This study finds that neither affordability ratios nor regression estimates support the existence of the bubble in Turkey.

Financial Engineering and Engineering of Financial Regulation: Guidance for Compliance and Risk Management

As observed in at least the last two decades, financial engineering has not only changed the way in which business is conducted in the finance world, but also the daily life of the average citizen in the leading economies. Structured products have been deemed weapons of mass destruction in some post-crisis comments, but it is fair to say that few people could understand the nature and risks of these instruments before the crisis. In this paper, the author analyses how regulators failed to understand/manage the risks of financially engineered products during/before the global financial crisis. After defining the risks/benefits, the measures to enhance good regulatory governance in general and hence engineered products also are discussed. It is concluded, first, that engineered products have important benefits for the global economy, but that the regulatory/supervisory structure should be improved for better firm/system-wide risk management. Secondly, four components are recommended to improve the prudential regulatory/supervisory framework: to employ timely, effective action to balance sheet problems, to increase the effectiveness of firm/industry-wide risk management, to improve the independence and quality of prudential regulation and to increase the accountability of supervisors.

Global Financial Crisis and Mortgage Finance and Valuation Problems: An Assesment of the US and Turkish Mortgage Systems

Abstract After emerging from the U.S. real estate and financial markets, financial crisis has gradually become global. Due to both primary and secondary mortgage market problems in the U.S. are accepted as the essential reasons of the current crisis, it is believed that financial markets and real estate sector need a new design. In this paper, the author condiders the importance of real estate valuation in the origination of crisis and whether Turkish mortgage market has similar problems with the U.S. It is argued in the paper that real estate valuation is one of the most critical reasons of crisis. To implement effectively of the real estate valuation, market culture and knowledge are of great importance expected to developed by market players, NGOs, SROs, regulators, academicians etc. The author suggests that brand new establishment of The Association of Appraisal Experts of Turkey is important for the development of sound real estate valuation. But the next and bigger step should be a new property valuation legislation which should cover all relevant (and possible) real estate valuation rules and practices of the Turkish law/commercial life.

An Application of Regressed Discounted Cash Flow as an Automated Valuation Method: A Case in Bari

The application of automated valuation methodology (AVM) procedure to income approach normally deals with direct capitalization. This happens although the great diffusion of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The main objectives of paper are twofold: first, we aim to propose an AVM procedure based on the relationship between the DCF inputs and outputs. Second, we seek to determine discount rate and local risk premium in the case of Bari commercial market The study also refines discussions on risk premium factor in the regressed DCF application. The study also and identifies the room for enhancing the suggested methodology. The solution proposed is the model A of Regressed DCF (d’Amato and Kauko 2012).

Impact of Volatility and Equity Market Uncertainty on Herd Behavior: Evidence from UK REITs

Employing static/dynamic models that capture herding under different market regimes, we provide novel evidence on the herding behaviour of UK-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Our sample is extensive and covers the period from 30/6/2004 to 5/4/2016. Estimates of herding behaviour are derived using a Markov regime switching model. The analysis suggests the existence of three market regimes (low, high and extreme or crash volatility) with transition ordered as ‘low, high and crash volatility’. Although static herding model rejects the existence of herding in REITs markets, estimates of the regimes switching model reveal substantial evidence of herding behaviours under the low volatility regime. Most interestingly we observe a shift from anti-herding behaviour during high volatility regimes to herding behaviour under low volatility regime, with this caused by the UK VIX.

Optimum Level of Regulation and Market in Risk Management

As an instrument for managing/optimizing firm/industry wide risks, risk management is useful tool for companies and regulators. Companies and agencies use various risk management instruments to fulfill their responsibilities to stakeholders, and eventually society. In this respect, Kane suggests that it is instructive to view financial services as a product that is supplied jointly by financial institutions and their regulators. However this approach represents an ideal point, both parties have different and uncompromising raison d’etre. It has observed during global financial crisis while owners/managers of companies lost their reputation and wealth, central banks paid the bill through taxpayers’ money. This picture reveals that to save the “system” state may take ultimate responsibility for firm/industry wide risk management practices due to statutory objectives of relevant agencies.