Yeonseung Chung

Nonparametric Bayes Conditional Distribution Modeling With Variable Selection.

This article considers a methodology for flexibly characterizing the relationship between a response and multiple predictors. Goals are (1) to estimate the conditional response distribution addressing the distributional changes across the predictor space, and (2) to identify important predictors for the response distribution change both within local regions and globally. We first introduce the probit stick-breaking process (PSBP) as a prior for an uncountable collection of predictor-dependent random distributions and propose a PSBP mixture (PSBPM) of normal regressions for modeling the conditional distributions. A global variable selection structure is incorporated to discard unimportant predictors, while allowing estimation of posterior inclusion probabilities. Local variable selection is conducted relying on the conditional distribution estimates at different predictor points. An efficient stochastic search sampling algorithm is proposed for posterior computation. The methods are illustrated through simulation and applied to an epidemiologic study.

Associations between Long-Term Exposure to Chemical Constituents of Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) and Mortality in Medicare Enrollees in the Eastern United States

Background: Several epidemiological studies have reported that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with higher mortality. Evidence regarding contributions of PM2.5 constituents is inconclusive. Objectives: We assembled a data set of 12.5 million Medicare enrollees (≥ 65 years of age) to determine which PM2.5 constituents are a) associated with mortality controlling for previous-year PM2.5 total mass (main effect); and b) elevated in locations exhibiting stronger associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (effect modification). Methods: For 518 PM2.5 monitoring locations (eastern United States, 2000–2006), we calculated monthly mortality rates, monthly long-term (previous 1-year average) PM2.5, and 7-year averages (2000–2006) of major PM2.5 constituents [elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon matter (OCM), sulfate (SO42–), silicon (Si), nitrate (NO3–), and sodium (Na)] and community-level variables. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate location-specific mortality rates associated with previous-year PM2.5 (model level 1) and identify constituents that contributed to the spatial variability of mortality, and constituents that modified associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality (model level 2), controlling for community-level confounders. Results: One–standard deviation (SD) increases in 7-year average EC, Si, and NO3– concentrations were associated with 1.3% [95% posterior interval (PI): 0.3, 2.2], 1.4% (95% PI: 0.6, 2.4), and 1.2% (95% PI: 0.4, 2.1) increases in monthly mortality, controlling for previous-year PM2.5. Associations between previous-year PM2.5 and mortality were stronger in combination with 1-SD increases in SO42– and Na. Conclusions: Long-term exposures to PM2.5 and several constituents were associated with mortality in the elderly population of the eastern United States. Moreover, some constituents increased the association between long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality. These results provide new evidence that chemical composition can partly explain the differential toxicity of PM2.5. Citation: Chung Y, Dominici F, Wang Y, Coull BA, Bell ML. 2015. Associations between long-term exposure to chemical constituents of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and mortality in Medicare enrollees in the eastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 123:467–474; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307549

Mortality Related to Extreme Temperature for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia

Background: Multisite time-series studies for temperature-related mortality have been conducted mainly in the United States and Europe, but are lacking in Asia. This multisite time-series study examined mortality related to extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) in Northeast Asia, focusing on 15 cities of 3 high-income countries. Methods: This study includes 3 cities in Taiwan for 1994–2007, 6 cities in Korea for 1992–2010, and 6 cities in Japan for 1972–2009. We used 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical Poisson semiparametric regression to model the nonlinear relationship between temperature and mortality, providing city-specific and country-wide estimates for cold and heat effects. Various exposure time frames, age groups, and causes of death were considered. Results: Cold effects had longer time lags (5–11 days) than heat effects, which were immediate (1–3 days). Cold effects were larger for cities in Taiwan, whereas heat effects were larger for cities in Korea and Japan. Patterns of increasing effects with age were observed in both cold and heat effects. Both cold and heat effects were larger for cardiorespiratory mortality than for other causes of death. Several city characteristics related to weather or air pollution were associated with both cold and heat effects. Conclusions: Mortality increased with either cold or hot temperature in urban populations of high-income countries in Northeast Asia, with spatial variations of effects among cities and countries. Findings suggest that climate factors are major contributors to the spatial heterogeneity of effects in this region, although further research is merited to identify other factors as determinants of variability.

Association Between Interpersonal Trust, Reciprocity, and Depression in South Korea: A Prospective Analysis

Background A growing body of empirical evidence indicates that low-level social capital is related to poor mental health outcomes. However, the prospective association between social capital and depression remains unclear, and no published studies have investigated the association with longitudinal data in East-Asian countries. Methods We analyzed data from the ongoing Korean Welfare Panel Study to prospectively investigate association between social capital and depression. Social capital was measured at the individual level by two items specific to interpersonal trust and reciprocity. Depression was annually assessed as a dichotomous variable using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. After excluding participants who had depression in 2006, logistic regression models were applied to estimate the association between each social capital indicator and new-onset depression developed in 2007 or long-term depression in both 2007 and 2008. We also examined the association in a subpopulation restricted to healthy participants after excluding individuals with any pre-existing disability, chronic disease, or poor self-rated health condition. Results Compared to the high interpersonal trust group, the odds ratios of developing new-onset and long-term depression among the low interpersonal trust group were 1.22 (95% CI: 1.08∼1.38) and 1.23 (95% CI: 1.03∼1.50), respectively, and increased to 1.32 (95% CI: 1.10∼1.57) and 1.47 (95% CI: 1.05∼2.08) in the subpopulation analyses restricted to healthy individuals. Although the low and intermediate reciprocity group also had significantly higher odds of developing new-onset depression compared to the high reciprocity group, the effects were attenuated and statistically non-significant in the subpopulation analyses. Conclusion Low interpersonal trust appears to be an independent risk factor for new-onset and long-term depression in South Korea.

Impulsivity and Substance Use in Young Adulthood

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Although the significant role of impulsive personality on substance use has been widely documented, distinct aspects of impulsivity and their relation to substance use during young adulthood have received scant attention. We sought to fill this research gap and explored impulsivity subtraits in relation to hazardous drinking and illicit substance use in young adulthood. METHODS The present study used cross-sectional survey data collected from a community sample of 257 young adults aged 18-25 (53% female). Data were primarily analyzed by three different types of regression models. RESULTS We found impulsivity to be more strongly associated with illicit substance use than hazardous drinking during young adulthood. Among the four impulsivity subtraits examined, lack of premeditation (p < .01) and sensation seeking (p < .05) were significantly related to illicit substance use in young adulthood. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE These findings suggest that each impulsivity subtrait might play different roles in illicit substance use during young adulthood. For young adults, assessment of differential patterns of impulsive personality in individuals with substance use problems may have important implication for treatment strategies.

Tropical influenza and weather variability among children in an urban low-income population in Bangladesh

Background Influenza seasonality in the tropics is poorly understood and not as well documented as in temperate regions. In addition, low-income populations are considered highly vulnerable to such acute respiratory disease, owing to limited resources and overcrowding. Nonetheless, little is known about their actual disease burden for lack of data. We therefore investigated associations between tropical influenza incidence and weather variability among children under five in a poor urban area of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Design Acute respiratory illness data were obtained from a population-based respiratory and febrile illness surveillance dataset of Kamalapur, a low-income urban area in southeast Dhaka. Analyzed data were from January 2005 through December 2008. Nasopharyngeal wash specimens were collected from every fifth eligible surveillance participant during clinic visits to identify influenza virus infection with viral culture and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction. Time series analysis was conducted to determine associations between the number of influenza cases per week and weather factors. Zero-inflated Poisson and generalized linear Poisson models were used in the analysis for influenza A and B, respectively. Results Influenza A had associations with minimum temperature, relative humidity (RH), sunlight duration, and rainfall, whereas only RH was associated with influenza B. Although associations of the other weather factors varied between the two subtypes, RH shared a similar positive association when humidity was approximately 50-70%. Conclusions Our findings of a positive RH association is consistent with prior studies, and may suggest the viral response in the tropics. The characteristics of settlement areas, population demographics, and typical overcrowding of urban poverty may also contribute to different impacts of rainfall from higher economic population. Further investigations of associations between tropical influenza and weather variability for urban low-income populations are required for better understanding.Background Influenza seasonality in the tropics is poorly understood and not as well documented as in temperate regions. In addition, low-income populations are considered highly vulnerable to such acute respiratory disease, owing to limited resources and overcrowding. Nonetheless, little is known about their actual disease burden for lack of data. We therefore investigated associations between tropical influenza incidence and weather variability among children under five in a poor urban area of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Design Acute respiratory illness data were obtained from a population-based respiratory and febrile illness surveillance dataset of Kamalapur, a low-income urban area in southeast Dhaka. Analyzed data were from January 2005 through December 2008. Nasopharyngeal wash specimens were collected from every fifth eligible surveillance participant during clinic visits to identify influenza virus infection with viral culture and reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction. Time series analysis was conducted to determine associations between the number of influenza cases per week and weather factors. Zero-inflated Poisson and generalized linear Poisson models were used in the analysis for influenza A and B, respectively. Results Influenza A had associations with minimum temperature, relative humidity (RH), sunlight duration, and rainfall, whereas only RH was associated with influenza B. Although associations of the other weather factors varied between the two subtypes, RH shared a similar positive association when humidity was approximately 50–70%. Conclusions Our findings of a positive RH association is consistent with prior studies, and may suggest the viral response in the tropics. The characteristics of settlement areas, population demographics, and typical overcrowding of urban poverty may also contribute to different impacts of rainfall from higher economic population. Further investigations of associations between tropical influenza and weather variability for urban low-income populations are required for better understanding.

Effects of fresh and aged vehicular exhaust emissions on breathing pattern and cellular responses – pilot single vehicle study

The study presented here is a laboratory pilot study using diluted car exhaust from a single vehicle to assess differences in toxicological response between primary emissions and secondary products resulting from atmospheric photochemical reactions of gas phase compounds with O3, OH and other radicals. Sprague Dawley rats were exposed for 5 h to either filtered room air (sham) or one of two different atmospheres: (i) diluted car exhaust (P)+Mt. Saint Helens Ash (MSHA); (ii) P+MSHA+secondary organic aerosol (SOA, formed during simulated photochemical aging of diluted exhaust). Primary and secondary gases were removed using a nonselective diffusion denuder. Continuous respiratory data was collected during the exposure, and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) and complete blood counts (CBC) were performed 24 h after exposure. ANOVA models were used to assess the exposure effect and to compare those effects across different exposure types. Total average exposures were 363 ± 66 μg/m3 P+MSHA and 212 ± 95 µg/m3 P+MSHA+SOA. For both exposures, we observed decreases in breathing rate, tidal and minute volumes (TV, MV) and peak and median flows (PIF, PEF and EF50) along with increases in breathing cycle times (Ti, Te) compared to sham. These results indicate that the animals are changing their breathing pattern with these test atmospheres. Exposure to P+MSHA+SOA produced significant increases in total cells, macrophages and neutrophils in the BAL and in vivo chemiluminescence of the lung. There were no significant differences in CBC parameters. Our data suggest that simulated atmospheric photochemistry, producing SOA in the P+MSHA+SOA exposures, enhanced the toxicity of vehicular emissions.

Temporal Changes in Mortality Related to Extreme Temperatures for 15 Cities in Northeast Asia: Adaptation to Heat and Maladaptation to Cold

Understanding how the temperature-mortality association worldwide changes over time is crucial to addressing questions of human adaptation under climate change. Previous studies investigated the temporal changes in the association over a few discrete time frames or assumed a linear change. Also, most studies focused on attenuation of heat-related mortality and studied the United States or Europe. This research examined continuous temporal changes (potentially nonlinear) in mortality related to extreme temperature (both heat and cold) for 15 cities in Northeast Asia (1972-2009). We used a generalized linear model with splines to simultaneously capture 2 types of nonlinearity: nonlinear association between temperature and mortality and nonlinear change over time in the association. We combined city-specific results to generate country-specific results using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Cold-related mortality remained roughly constant over decades and slightly increased in the late 2000s, with a larger increase for cardiorespiratory deaths than for deaths from other causes. Heat-related mortality rates have decreased continuously over time, with more substantial decrease in earlier decades, for older populations and for cardiorespiratory deaths. Our findings suggest that future assessment of health effects of climate change should account for the continuous changes in temperature-related health risk and variations by factors such as age, cause of death, and location.

A multi-country analysis on potential adaptive mechanisms to cold and heat in a changing climate

BACKGROUND Temporal variation of temperature-health associations depends on the combination of two pathways: pure adaptation to increasingly warmer temperatures due to climate change, and other attenuation mechanisms due to non-climate factors such as infrastructural changes and improved health care. Disentangling these pathways is critical for assessing climate change impacts and for planning public health and climate policies. We present evidence on this topic by assessing temporal trends in cold- and heat-attributable mortality risks in a multi-country investigation. METHODS Trends in country-specific attributable mortality fractions (AFs) for cold and heat (defined as below/above minimum mortality temperature, respectively) in 305 locations within 10 countries (1985-2012) were estimated using a two-stage time-series design with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models. To separate the contribution of pure adaptation to increasing temperatures and active changes in susceptibility (non-climate driven mechanisms) to heat and cold, we compared observed yearly-AFs with those predicted in two counterfactual scenarios: trends driven by either (1) changes in exposure-response function (assuming a constant temperature distribution), (2) or changes in temperature distribution (assuming constant exposure-response relationships). This comparison provides insights about the potential mechanisms and pace of adaptation in each population. RESULTS Heat-related AFs decreased in all countries (ranging from 0.45-1.66% to 0.15-0.93%, in the first and last 5-year periods, respectively) except in Australia, Ireland and UK. Different patterns were found for cold (where AFs ranged from 5.57-15.43% to 2.16-8.91%), showing either decreasing (Brazil, Japan, Spain, Australia and Ireland), increasing (USA), or stable trends (Canada, South Korea and UK). Heat-AF trends were mostly driven by changes in exposure-response associations due to modified susceptibility to temperature, whereas no clear patterns were observed for cold. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest a decrease in heat-mortality impacts over the past decades, well beyond those expected from a pure adaptation to changes in temperature due to the observed warming. This indicates that there is scope for the development of public health strategies to mitigate heat-related climate change impacts. In contrast, no clear conclusions were found for cold. Further investigations should focus on identification of factors defining these changes in susceptibility.

Associations between the timing of childhood adversity and adulthood suicidal behavior: A nationally-representative cohort.

BACKGROUND Although childhood adversities (CAs) are known to be associated with later suicidal behavior, it is uncertain whether the timing of specific CAs may influence this association. METHODS We analyzed nationally representative data for 9205 participants from the Korean Welfare Panel Study. Four different CAs (parental death, parental divorce, suspension of school education and being raised in a relatives house due to financial strain) were assessed and were categorized as early childhood and adolescent onset. Lifetime experiences of suicidal behaviors along with the age of the first time experience were recorded. Cox regression was used. RESULTS After adjusting for age, sex, and childhood socioeconomic status, parental death before the age of 12 was associated with adulthood suicidal behavior (ideation HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.13, 1.61; attempt HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.02, 2.52), while suspension of school due to financial strain was associated with suicidal behavior when it occurred at adolescence (ideation HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.22, 1.79; plan HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.16, 2.48). When we also adjusted for adulthood SES, which is a potential mediator, there was no significant change except that the association between early parental death and suicidal attempt became non-significant (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 0.92, 2.26). LIMITATIONS Experience of CA was assessed retrospectively, and the assessment of suicidal attempt was not specifically defined. There could be selection bias due to loss to the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS There may be a critical period for the effect of CA on later suicidal behavior depending on the characteristics of CA.