Yih-Luan Chyi

Nonlinear dynamics and daily stock returns on the Taiwan Stock Exchange

This paper studies the nonlinear dynamics of the stock returns on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. A fuzzy system modelling approach is introduced to fit and forecast the stock returns on the TSE. The result of the BDS test implies that we may have a good chance to fit and forecast more accurately the daily stock returns by using a fuzzy system model

Business Cycles between Developed and Developing Economies

This paper compares the stylized facts of international real business cycles between developed and developing countries. A two-sector two-country real business cycles model is constructed to examine the cyclical behaviors of domestic as well as international macroeconomic variables, and to evaluate the models consistency with empirical observations. The model predicts correctly that consumption, investment, and saving are procyclical, while the trade balance/output ratio is countercyclical. There exist, however, some discrepancies between the model and the data. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Growth, Trade, and Government Policies of a Small Open Economy

Utilizing a linear endogenous growth model, the paper provides an economic rationale for two empirical findings: the positive correlation between export growth and income growth, and the association of rapid structural changes with fast income growth. In the benchmark case, the small open economy converges eventually to a balanced growth path along which exports and total output grow at the same constant rate as consumption. Government policies affect the pattern of specialization and trade since they change the autarky or foreign relative price. Only taxation on the capital goods sector can affect asymptotic growth rates. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd