Yin-Wong Cheung

A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity

A generalized notion of cointegration, called fractional cointegration, is introduced to examine the long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. By allowing deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractionally integrated process, the fractional cointegration analysis can capture a wider range of mean-reversion behavior than standard cointegration analyses. This gain is flexibility in modeling subtle mean-reverting dynamics is found to be important for a proper evaluation of long-run PPP. Empirical results based on historical data for the 1914–1989 period show that PPP reversion exists and can be characterized by a fractionally integrated process in three out of five countries studied. The results support PPP as a long-run phenomenon, though significant short-run deviations from PPP can exist.

Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: A survey of the US market

We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that: (i) in recent years electronically-brokered transactions have risen substantially, mostly at the expense of traditional brokers; (ii) the market norm is an important det e rminant of interbank bid-ask spread and the most widely-cited reason for deviating from the conventional bid-ask spread is a thin/hectic market; (iii) half or more of market respondents believe that large players dominate in the dollar-pound and dollar-Swiss franc markets; (iv) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (v) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange rates; (vi) the importance of individual macroe c onomic variables shifts over time, although interest rates always appear to be important; (vii) economic fundamentals are perceived to be more important at longer horizons, while short-run deviations from the fundamentals are attributed to excess speculation and institutional customer/hedge fund manipulation; (viii) speculation is generally viewed positively, as enhancing market efficiency and liquidity, even though it exacerbates volatility; (ix) central bank intervention does not appear to have substantial effect, although there is general agreement that it increases volatility, and finally; (x) traders do not view purchasing power parity as a useful concept, even though a significant proportion (40%) believe that it affects exchange rates at horizons of over six months.

A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices

Abstract This paper develops a test for causality in variance. The test is based on the residual cross-correlation function (CCF) and is robust to distributional assumptions. Asymptotic normal and asymptotic χ 2 statistics are derived under the null hypothesis of no causality in variance. Monte Carlo results indicate that the proposed CCF test has good empirical size and power properties. Two empirical examples illustrate that the causality test yields useful information on the temporal dynamics and the interaction between two time series.

Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates

Using the Geweke–Porter-Hudak test, we find evidence of long memory in exchange-rate data. This implies that the empirical evidence of unit roots in exchange rates may not be robust to long-memory alternatives. Fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) models are estimated by both the time-domain exact maximum likelihood (ML) method and the frequency-domain approximate ML method. Impulse-response functions and forecasts based on these estimated ARFIMA models are evaluated to gain insight into the long-memory characteristics of exchange rates. Some tentative explanations of the long memory found in the exchange rates are discussed.

International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity

Abstract Using the Johansen cointegration technique, we find empirical evidence of long run comovements between five national stock market indexes and measures of aggregate real activity including the real oil price, real consumption, real money, and real output. Real returns on these indexes are typically related to transitory deviations from the long run relationship and to changes in the macroeconomic variables. Further, the constraints implied by the cointegration results yield some incremental information on stock return variation that is not already contained in dividend yields, interest rate spreads, and future GNP growth rates.

Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test

Response surface analysis is used to obtain approximate finite-sample critical values for the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. Previous studies estimating the critical values for the test have generally ignored their possible dependence on the lag order. This study shows that the lag order, in addition to the sample size, can affect the finite-sample behavior of the test. The result points to the importance of correcting for the effect of lag order in applying the ADF test.

EMPIRICS OF CHINA'S OUTWARD DIRECT INVESTMENT

We investigate the empirical determinants of China’s outward direct investment (ODI). It is found that China’s investments in developed and developing countries are driven by different sets of factors. Subject to the differences between developed and developing countries, there is evidence that a) both market seeking and resources seeking motives drive China’s ODI, b) the Chinese exports to developing countries induce China’s ODI, c) China’s international reserves promote its ODI, and d) the Chinese capital tends to agglomerate among developed economies but diversify among developing economies. Similar results are obtained using alternative ODI data. We do not find substantial evidence that China invests in African and oil-producing countries mainly for their natural resources.

A search for long memory in international stock market returns

Abstract A major issue in financial economics is the behavior of stock returns over long as opposed to short horizons. This study provides empirical evidence from the perspective of long memory analysis. International evidence on long memory is explored using the Morgan Stanley Capital International stock index data for eighteen countries. Two tests that are robust to short-term dependence and conditional heteroskedasticity are employed: a modified rescaled range test and a fractional differencing test. The empirical results in general provide little support for long memory in international stock returns. The findings are not sensitive to inflation adjustments in stock returns, data sources, and statistical methods used.

China's Current Account and Exchange Rate

We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample, when using the 2006 vintage of the World Development Indicators. The economic magnitude of the mis-alignment is substantial -- on the order of 50 percent in log terms. However, the misalignment is typically not statistically significant, in the sense of being more than two standard errors away from the conditional mean. However, this finding disappears completely when using the most recent 2008 vintage of data; then the estimated undervaluation is on the order of 10 percent. Second, we find that Chinese multilateral trade flows respond to relative prices -- as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate -- but the relationship is not always precisely estimated. In addition, the direction of the effects is sometimes different from what is expected a priori. For instance, Chinese ordinary imports actually rise in response to a RMB depreciation; however, Chinese exports appear to respond to RMB depreciation in the expected manner, as long as a supply variable is included. In that sense, Chinese trade is not exceptional. Furthermore, Chinese trade with the United States appears to behave in a standard manner -- especially after the expansion in the Chinese manufacturing capital stock is accounted for. Thus, the China-US trade balance should respond to real exchange rate and relative income movements in the anticipated manner. However, in neither the case of multilateral nor bilateral trade flows should one expect quantitatively large effects arising from exchange rate changes. And, of course, these results are not informative with regard to the question of how a change in the RMB/USD exchange rate would affect the overall US trade deficit. Finally, we stress the fact that considerable uncertainty surrounds both our estimates of RMB misalignment and the responsiveness of trade flows to movements in exchange rates and output levels. In particular, the results for trade elasticities are sensitive to econometric specification, accounting for supply effects, and for the inclusion of time trends.

A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics

We report some findings from a survey of practitioners in the interbank foreign exchange markets in Hong Kong, Tokyo, and Singapore. The respondents contend that liquidity and market uncertainty are two important reasons for deviating from the conventional interbank bid-ask spread. A strong customer base is perceived as a source of competitive advantage for large participants. Most respondents agree that non-fundamental factors have pervasive impacts on short-run exchange rates. Speculation is believed to increase volatility but also improve market liquidity and efficiency. Despite their claim that intervention exacerbates volatility, more than one-half of the respondents suggest official intervention helps restore equilibrium.