Ying D. Liu

GEOMETRIC TRIANGULATION OF IMAGING OBSERVATIONS TO TRACK CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS CONTINUOUSLY OUT TO 1 AU

We describe a geometric triangulation technique, based on time-elongation maps constructed from imaging observations, to track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) continuously in the heliosphere and predict their impact on the Earth. Taking advantage of stereoscopic imaging observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory, this technique can determine the propagation direction and radial distance of CMEs from their birth in the corona all the way to 1 AU. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by its application to the 2008 December 12 CME, which manifests as a magnetic cloud (MC) from in situ measurements at the Earth. The predicted arrival time and radial velocity at the Earth are well confirmed by the in situ observations around the MC. Our method reveals non-radial motions and velocity changes of the CME over large distances in the heliosphere. It also associates the flux-rope structure measured in situ with the dark cavity of the CME in imaging observations. Implementation of the technique, which is expected to be a routine possibility in the future, may indicate a substantial advance in CME studies as well as space weather forecasting.

Observations of an extreme storm in interplanetary space caused by successive coronal mass ejections

Space weather refers to dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment of the Earth, which are often driven by solar eruptions and their subsequent interplanetary disturbances. It has been unclear how an extreme space weather storm forms and how severe it can be. Here we report and investigate an extreme event with multi-point remote-sensing and in situ observations. The formation of the extreme storm showed striking novel features. We suggest that the in-transit interaction between two closely launched coronal mass ejections resulted in the extreme enhancement of the ejecta magnetic field observed near 1 AU at STEREO A. The fast transit to STEREO A (in only 18.6 h), or the unusually weak deceleration of the event, was caused by the preconditioning of the upstream solar wind by an earlier solar eruption. These results provide a new view crucial to solar physics and space weather as to how an extreme space weather event can arise from a combination of solar eruptions.

CONNECTING SPEEDS, DIRECTIONS AND ARRIVAL TIMES OF 22 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM THE SUN TO 1 AU

Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary environments. We study the feasibility of using a single heliospheric imager (HI) instrument, imaging the solar wind density from the Sun to 1 AU, for connecting remote images to in situ observations of CMEs. We compare the predictions of speed and arrival time for 22 CMEs (in 2008-2012) to the corresponding interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) parameters at in situ observatories (STEREO PLASTIC/IMPACT, Wind SWE/MFI). The list consists of front-and backsided, slow and fast CMEs (up to 2700 km s(-1)). We track the CMEs to 34.9 +/- 7.1 deg elongation from the Sun with J maps constructed using the SATPLOT tool, resulting in prediction lead times of - 26.4 +/- 15.3 hr. The geometrical models we use assume different CME front shapes (fixed-Phi, harmonic mean, self-similar expansion) and constant CME speed and direction. We find no significant superiority in the predictive capability of any of the three methods. The absolute difference between predicted and observed ICME arrival times is 8.1 +/- 6.3 hr (rms value of 10.9 hr). Speeds are consistent to within 284 +/- 288 km s(-1) . Empirical corrections to the predictions enhance their performance for the arrival times to 6.1 +/- 5.0 hr (rms value of 7.9 hr), and for the speeds to 53 +/- 50 km s(-1). These results are important for Solar Orbiter and a space weather mission positioned away from the Sun-Earth line.

RECONSTRUCTING CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WITH COORDINATED IMAGING AND IN SITU OBSERVATIONS: GLOBAL STRUCTURE, KINEMATICS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING

We reconstruct the global structure and kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using coordinated imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. A forward modeling technique, which assumes a rope-like morphology for CMEs, is used to determine the global structure (including orientation and propagation direction) from coronagraph observations. We reconstruct the corresponding structure from in situ measurements at 1 AU with the Grad-Shafranov method, which gives the flux-rope orientation, cross section, and a rough knowledge of the propagation direction. CME kinematics (propagation direction and radial distance) during the transit from the Sun to 1 AU are studied with a geometric triangulation technique, which provides an unambiguous association between solar observations and in situ signatures; a track fitting approach is invoked when data are available from only one spacecraft. We show how the results obtained from imaging and in situ data can be compared by applying these methods to the 2007 November 14-16 and 2008 December 12 CMEs. This merged imaging and in situ study shows important consequences and implications for CME research as well as space weather forecasting: (1) CME propagation directions can be determined to a relatively good precision as shown by the consistency between different methods; (2) the geometric triangulation technique shows a promising capability to link solar observations with corresponding in situ signatures at 1 AU and to predict CME arrival at the Earth; (3) the flux rope within CMEs, which has the most hazardous southward magnetic field, cannot be imaged at large distances due to expansion; (4) the flux-rope orientation derived from in situ measurements at 1 AU may have a large deviation from that determined by coronagraph image modeling; and (5) we find, for the first time, that CMEs undergo a westward migration with respect to the Sun-Earth line at their acceleration phase, which we suggest is a universal feature produced by the magnetic field connecting the Sun and ejecta. The importance of having dedicated spacecraft at L4 and L5, which are well situated for the triangulation concept, is also discussed based on the results.

CHARACTERISTICS OF KINEMATICS OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION DURING THE 2010 AUGUST 1 CME–CME INTERACTION EVENT

We study the interaction of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the 2010 August 1 events using STEREO/SECCHI COR and heliospheric imager (HI) data. We obtain the direction of motion for both CMEs by applying several independent reconstruction methods and find that the CMEs head in similar directions. This provides evidence that a full interaction takes place between the two CMEs that can be observed in the HI1 field of view. The full de-projected kinematics of the faster CME from Sun to Earth is derived by combining remote observations with in situ measurements of the CME at 1 AU. The speed profile of the faster CME (CME2; similar to 1200 km s(-1)) shows a strong deceleration over the distance range at which it reaches the slower, preceding CME (CME1; similar to 700 km s(-1)). By applying a drag-based model we are able to reproduce the kinematical profile of CME2, suggesting that CME1 represents a magnetohydrodynamic obstacle for CME2 and that, after the interaction, the merged entity propagates as a single structure in an ambient flow of speed and density typical for quiet solar wind conditions. Observational facts show that magnetic forces may contribute to the enhanced deceleration of CME2. We speculate that the increase in magnetic tension and pressure, when CME2 bends and compresses the magnetic field lines of CME1, increases the efficiency of drag.

STEREO and Wind observations of a fast ICME flank triggering a prolonged geomagnetic storm on 5-7 April 2010

On 5 April 2010 an interplanetary (IP) shock was detected by the Wind spacecraft ahead of Earth, followed by a fast (average speed 650 km/s) IP coronal mass ejection (ICME). During the subsequent moderate geomagnetic storm (minimum Dst = -72 nT, maximum Kp=8-), communication with the Galaxy 15 satellite was lost. We link images from STEREO/SECCHI to the near-Earth in situ observations and show that the ICME did not decelerate much between Sun and Earth. The ICME flank was responsible for a long storm growth phase. This type of glancing collision was for the first time directly observed with the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers. The magnetic cloud (MC) inside the ICME cannot be modeled with approaches assuming an invariant direction. These observations confirm the hypotheses that parts of ICMEs classified as (1) long-duration MCs or (2) magnetic-cloud-like (MCL) structures can be a consequence of a spacecraft trajectory through the ICME flank.

On Sun-to-Earth Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

We investigate how coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagate through, and interact with, the inner heliosphere between the Sun and Earth, a key question in CME research and space weather forecasting. CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics are constrained by combining wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations, interplanetary radio type II bursts, and in situ measurements from multiple vantage points. We select three events for this study, the 2012 January 19, 23, and March 7 CMEs. Different from previous event studies, this work attempts to create a general picture for CME Sun-to-Earth propagation and compare different techniques for determining CME interplanetary kinematics. Key results are obtained concerning CME Sun-to-Earth propagation: (1) the Sun-to-Earth propagation of fast CMEs can be approximately formulated into three phases: an impulsive acceleration, then a rapid deceleration, and finally a nearly constant speed propagation (or gradual deceleration); (2) the CMEs studied here are still accelerating even after the flare maximum, so energy must be continuously fed into the CME even after the time of the maximum heating and radiation has elapsed in the corona; (3) the rapid deceleration, presumably due to interactions with the ambient medium, mainly occurs over a relatively short timescale following the acceleration phase; and (4) CME-CME interactions seem a common phenomenon close to solar maximum. Our comparison between different techniques (and data sets) has important implications for CME observations and their interpretations: (1) for the current cases, triangulation assuming a compact CME geometry is more reliable than triangulation assuming a spherical front attached to the Sun for distances below 50-70 solar radii from the Sun, but beyond about 100 solar radii we would trust the latter more; (2) a proper treatment of CME geometry must be performed in determining CME Sun-to-Earth kinematics, especially when the CME propagation direction is far away from the observer; and (3) our approach to comparing wide-angle heliospheric imaging observations with interplanetary radio type II bursts provides a novel tool in investigating CME propagation characteristics. Future CME observations and space weather forecasting are discussed based on these results.

MULTI-POINT SHOCK AND FLUX ROPE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AROUND 2010 AUGUST 1 IN THE INNER HELIOSPHERE

We present multi-point in situ observations of a complex sequence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which may serve as a benchmark event for numerical and empirical space weather prediction models. On 2010 August 1, instruments on various space missions, Solar Dynamics Observatory/Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Solar-TErrestrial-RElations-Observatory (SDO/SOHO/STEREO), monitored several CMEs originating within tens of degrees from the solar disk center. We compare their imprints on four widely separated locations, spanning 120 degrees in heliospheric longitude, with radial distances from the Sun ranging from MESSENGER (0.38 AU) to Venus Express (VEX, at 0.72 AU) to Wind, ACE, and ARTEMIS near Earth and STEREO-B close to 1 AU. Calculating shock and flux rope parameters at each location points to a non-spherical shape of the shock, and shows the global configuration of the interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), which have interacted, but do not seem to have merged. VEX and STEREO-B observed similar magnetic flux ropes (MFRs), in contrast to structures at Wind. The geomagnetic storm was intense, reaching two minima in the Dst index (approximate to-100 nT), and was caused by the sheath region behind the shock and one of two observed MFRs. MESSENGER received a glancing blow of the ICMEs, and the events missed STEREO-A entirely. The observations demonstrate how sympathetic solar eruptions may immerse at least 1/3 of the heliosphere in the ecliptic with their distinct plasma and magnetic field signatures. We also emphasize the difficulties in linking the local views derived from single-spacecraft observations to a consistent global picture, pointing to possible alterations from the classical picture of ICMEs.

A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW OF THE 2006 DECEMBER 13 CME: FROM THE SUN TO INTERPLANETARY SPACE

The biggest halo coronal mass ejection (CME) since the Halloween storm in 2003, which occurred on 2006 December 13, is studied in terms of its solar source and heliospheric consequences. The CME was accompanied by an X3.4 flare, EUV dimmings, and coronal waves. It generated significant space weather effects such as an interplanetary shock, radio bursts, major solar energetic particle (SEP) events, and a magnetic cloud (MC) that were detected by a fleet of spacecraft including STEREO, ACE, WIND, and Ulysses. Reconstruction of the MC with the Grad-Shafranov (GS) method yields an axis orientation oblique to the flare ribbons. Observations of the SEP intensities and anisotropies show that the particles can be trapped, deflected, and reaccelerated by the large-scale transient structures. The CME-driven shock was observed at both the Earth and Ulysses when they were separated by 74 degrees in latitude and 117 degrees in longitude, which is the largest shock extent ever detected. The ejecta seem to have been missed at Ulysses. The shock arrival time at Ulysses is well predicted by an MHD model that can propagate the 1 AU data outward. The CME/shock is tracked remarkably well from the Sun all the way to Ulysses by coronagraph images, type II frequency drift, in situ measurements, and the MHD model. These results reveal a technique that combines MHD propagation of the solar wind and type II emissions to predict the shock arrival time at the Earth, which is a significant advance for space weather forecasting, especially when in situ data become available from the Solar Orbiter and Solar Sentinels.

Interactions between Coronal Mass Ejections Viewed in Coordinated Imaging and In Situ Observations

The successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 2010 July 30 to August 1 present us the first opportunity to study CME-CME interactions with unprecedented heliospheric imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. We describe two cases of CME interactions: merging of two CMEs launched close in time and overtaking of a preceding CME by a shock wave. The first two CMEs on August 1 interact close to the Sun and form a merged front, which then overtakes the July 30 CME near 1 AU, as revealed by wide-angle imaging observations. Connections between imaging observations and in situ signatures at 1 AU suggest that the merged front is a shock wave, followed by two ejecta observed at Wind which seem to have already merged. In situ measurements show that the CME from July 30 is being overtaken by the shock at 1 AU and is significantly compressed, accelerated, and heated. The interaction between the preceding ejecta and shock also results in variations in the shock strength and structure on a global scale, as shown by widely separated in situ measurements from Wind and STEREO B. These results indicate important implications of CME-CME interactions for shock propagation, particle acceleration, and space weather forecasting.