Yinglei Lai

Timing of elective repeat cesarean delivery at term and neonatal outcomes

BACKGROUND Because of increased rates of respiratory complications, elective cesarean delivery is discouraged before 39 weeks of gestation unless there is evidence of fetal lung maturity. We assessed associations between elective cesarean delivery at term (37 weeks of gestation or longer) but before 39 weeks of gestation and neonatal outcomes. METHODS We studied a cohort of consecutive patients undergoing repeat cesarean sections performed at 19 centers of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network from 1999 through 2002. Women with viable singleton pregnancies delivered electively (i.e., before the onset of labor and without any recognized indications for delivery before 39 weeks of gestation) were included. The primary outcome was the composite of neonatal death and any of several adverse events, including respiratory complications, treated hypoglycemia, newborn sepsis, and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS Of 24,077 repeat cesarean deliveries at term, 13,258 were performed electively; of these, 35.8% were performed before 39 completed weeks of gestation (6.3% at 37 weeks and 29.5% at 38 weeks) and 49.1% at 39 weeks of gestation. One neonatal death occurred. As compared with births at 39 weeks, births at 37 weeks and at 38 weeks were associated with an increased risk of the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio for births at 37 weeks, 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 2.5; adjusted odds ratio for births at 38 weeks, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3 to 1.7; P for trend <0.001). The rates of adverse respiratory outcomes, mechanical ventilation, newborn sepsis, hypoglycemia, admission to the neonatal ICU, and hospitalization for 5 days or more were increased by a factor of 1.8 to 4.2 for births at 37 weeks and 1.3 to 2.1 for births at 38 weeks. CONCLUSIONS Elective repeat cesarean delivery before 39 weeks of gestation is common and is associated with respiratory and other adverse neonatal outcomes.

Diagnostic Markers for Early Detection of Ovarian Cancer

Purpose: Early detection would significantly decrease the mortality rate of ovarian cancer. In this study, we characterize and validate the combination of six serum biomarkers that discriminate between disease-free and ovarian cancer patients with high efficiency. Experimental Design: We analyzed 362 healthy controls and 156 newly diagnosed ovarian cancer patients. Concentrations of leptin, prolactin, osteopontin, insulin-like growth factor II, macrophage inhibitory factor, and CA-125 were determined using a multiplex, bead-based, immunoassay system. All six markers were evaluated in a training set (181 samples from the control group and 113 samples from OC patients) and a test set (181 sample control group and 43 ovarian cancer). Results: Multiplex and ELISA exhibited the same pattern of expression for all the biomarkers. None of the biomarkers by themselves were good enough to differentiate healthy versus cancer cells. However, the combination of the six markers provided a better differentiation than CA-125. Four models with <2% classification error in training sets all had significant improvement (sensitivity 84%-98% at specificity 95%) over CA-125 (sensitivity 72% at specificity 95%) in the test set. The chosen model correctly classified 221 out of 224 specimens in the test set, with a classification accuracy of 98.7%. Conclusions: We describe the first blood biomarker test with a sensitivity of 95.3% and a specificity of 99.4% for the detection of ovarian cancer. Six markers provided a significant improvement over CA-125 alone for ovarian cancer detection. Validation was performed with a blinded cohort. This novel multiplex platform has the potential for efficient screening in patients who are at high risk for ovarian cancer.

Development of a nomogram for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model based on factors available at the first prenatal visit that predicts chance of successful vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) for individual patients who undergo a trial of labor. METHODS: All women with one prior low transverse cesarean who underwent a trial of labor at term with a vertex singleton gestation were identified from a concurrently collected database of deliveries at 19 academic centers during a 4-year period. Using factors identifiable at the first prenatal visit, we analyzed different classification techniques in an effort to develop a meaningful prediction model for VBAC success. After development and cross-validation, this model was represented by a graphic nomogram. RESULTS: Seven-thousand six hundred sixty women were available for analysis. The prediction model is based on a multivariable logistic regression, including the variables of maternal age, body mass index, ethnicity, prior vaginal delivery, the occurrence of a VBAC, and a potentially recurrent indication for the cesarean delivery. After analyzing the model with cross-validation techniques, it was found to be both accurate and discriminating. CONCLUSION: A predictive nomogram, which incorporates six variables easily ascertainable at the first prenatal visit, has been developed that allows the determination of a patient-specific chance for successful VBAC for those women who undertake trial of labor. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II

Gene expression profiling differentiates autism case–controls and phenotypic variants of autism spectrum disorders: evidence for circadian rhythm dysfunction in severe autism

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are neurodevelopmental disorders characterized by delayed/abnormal language development, deficits in social interaction, repetitive behaviors and restricted interests. The heterogeneity in clinical presentation of ASD, likely due to different etiologies, complicates genetic/biological analyses of these disorders. DNA microarray analyses were conducted on 116 lymphoblastoid cell lines (LCL) from individuals with idiopathic autism who are divided into three phenotypic subgroups according to severity scores from the commonly used Autism Diagnostic Interview‐Revised questionnaire and age‐matched, nonautistic controls. Statistical analyses of gene expression data from control LCL against that of LCL from ASD probands identify genes for which expression levels are either quantitatively or qualitatively associated with phenotypic severity. Comparison of the significant differentially expressed genes from each subgroup relative to the control group reveals differentially expressed genes unique to each subgroup as well as genes in common across subgroups. Among the findings unique to the most severely affected ASD group are 15 genes that regulate circadian rhythm, which has been shown to have multiple effects on neurological as well as metabolic functions commonly dysregulated in autism. Among the genes common to all three subgroups of ASD are 20 novel genes mostly in putative noncoding regions, which appear to associate with androgen sensitivity and which may underlie the strong 4:1 bias toward affected males.

Prediction of uterine rupture associated with attempted vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to develop a model that predicts individual-specific risk of uterine rupture during an attempted vaginal birth after cesarean delivery. STUDY DESIGN Women with 1 previous low-transverse cesarean delivery who underwent a trial of labor with a term singleton were identified in a concurrently collected database of deliveries that occurred at 19 academic centers during a 4-year period. We analyzed different classification techniques in an effort to develop an accurate prediction model for uterine rupture. RESULTS Of the 11,855 women who were available for analysis, 83 women (0.7%) had had a uterine rupture. The optimal final prediction model, which was based on a logistic regression, included 2 variables: any previous vaginal delivery (odds ratio, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27-0.71) and induction of labor (odds ratio, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.11-2.69). This model, with a c-statistic of 0.627, had poor discriminating ability and did not allow the determination of a clinically useful estimate of the probability of uterine rupture for an individual patient. CONCLUSION Factors that were available before or at admission for delivery cannot be used to predict accurately the relatively small proportion of women at term who will experience a uterine rupture during an attempted vaginal birth after cesarean delivery.

Timing of Delivery and Adverse Outcomes in Term Singleton Repeat Cesarean Deliveries

OBJECTIVE: To compare the maternal and neonatal risks of elective repeat cesarean delivery compared with pregnancy continuation at different gestational ages, starting from 37 weeks. METHODS: We analyzed the composite maternal and neonatal outcomes of repeat cesarean deliveries studied prospectively over 4 years at 19 U.S. centers. Maternal outcome was a composite of pulmonary edema, cesarean hysterectomy, pelvic abscess, thromboembolism, pneumonia, transfusion, or death. Composite neonatal outcome consisted of respiratory distress, transient tachypnea, necrotizing enterocolitis, sepsis, ventilation, seizure, hypoxic–ischemic encephalopathy, neonatal intensive care unit admission, 5-minute Apgar of 3 or lower, or death. Outcomes after elective repeat cesarean delivery without labor at each specific gestational age were compared with outcomes for all who were delivered later as a result of labor onset, specific obstetric indications, or both. RESULTS: Twenty-three thousand seven hundred ninety-four repeat cesarean deliveries were included. Elective delivery at 37 weeks of gestation had significantly higher risks of adverse maternal outcome (odds ratio [OR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.06–2.31), whereas elective delivery at 39 weeks of gestation was associated with better maternal outcome when compared with pregnancy continuation (OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.36–0.72). Elective repeat cesarean deliveries at 37 and 38 weeks of gestation had significantly higher risks of adverse neonatal outcome (37 weeks OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.73–2.36; 38 weeks OR 1.39 95% CI 1.24–1.56), whereas delivery at 39 and 40 weeks of gestation presented better neonatal outcome as opposed to pregnancy continuation (39 weeks OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.68–0.92; 40 weeks OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.43–0.75). CONCLUSION: In women with prior cesarean delivery, 39 weeks of gestation is the optimal time for repeat cesarean delivery for both mother and neonate. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II

Proteomic identification of serum peptides predicting subsequent spontaneous preterm birth

OBJECTIVE We sought to identify serum markers of subsequent spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB) in asymptomatic women prior to labor. STUDY DESIGN Serum proteomics was applied to sera from 80 pregnant women sampled at 24 weeks and an additional 80 pregnant women sampled at 28 weeks. Half had uncomplicated pregnancies and half had SPTB. RESULTS Three specific peptides arising from inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain 4 protein were significantly reduced in women at 24 and 28 weeks having subsequent SPTB. The most discriminating peptide had a sensitivity of 65.0% and specificity of 82.5%; odds ratio, 8.8; and 95% confidence interval, 3.1-24.8. A combination of the 3 new biomarkers and 6 previously studied biomarkers increased sensitivity to 86.5%, with a specificity of 80.6% at 28 weeks. CONCLUSION Three novel serum markers of SPTB have been identified using serum proteomics. Using a combination of these new markers with additional markers, women at risk of SPTB can be identified weeks prior to SPTB.

Maternal BMI, glucose tolerance, and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to estimate the association of pregravid body mass index (BMI), independent of 3-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results, with pregnancy outcome. STUDY DESIGN In this secondary analysis of a cohort of women with untreated mild gestational glucose intolerance, which was defined as a 50-g glucose loading test between 135 and 199 mg/dL and fasting glucose level of <95 mg/dL, we modeled the association between pregravid BMI, OGTT results, and both pregnancy complications and neonatal adiposity. RESULTS Among 1250 participants, both pregravid BMI and glucose at hour 3 of the OGTT were associated with increased risk of gestational hypertension. Maternal pregravid BMI also was associated positively with large-for-gestational-age infants; both maternal BMI and fasting glucose were associated with birthweight z-score and neonatal fat mass. CONCLUSION Among women with untreated mild gestational glucose intolerance, pregravid BMI is associated with increased gestational hypertension, birthweight, and neonatal fat mass, independent of OGTT values.

Can a prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean also predict the probability of morbidity related to a trial of labor

OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to determine whether a model for predicting vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) can also predict the probabilty of morbidity associated with a trial of labor (TOL). STUDY DESIGN Using a previously published prediction model, we categorized women with 1 prior cesarean by chance of VBAC. Prevalence of maternal and neonatal morbidity was stratfied by probability of VBAC success and delivery approach. RESULTS Morbidity became less frequent as the predicted chance of VBAC increased among women who underwent TOL (P < .001) but not elective repeat cesarean section (ERCS) (P > .05). When the predicted chance of VBAC was less than 70%, women undergoing a TOL were more likely to have maternal morbidity (relative risk [RR], 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.5-3.1) than those who underwent an ERCS; when the predicted chance of VBAC was at least 70%, total maternal morbidity was not different between the 2 groups (RR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.5-1.2). The results were similar for neonatal morbidity. CONCLUSION A prediction model for VBAC provides information regarding the chance of TOL-related morbidity and suggests that maternal morbidity is not greater for those women who undergo TOL than those who undergo ERCS if the chance of VBAC is at least 70%.

Does information available at admission for delivery improve prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean

We sought to construct a predictive model for vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC) that combines factors that can be ascertained only as the pregnancy progresses with those known at initiation of prenatal care. Using multivariable modeling, we constructed a predictive model for VBAC that included patient factors known at the initial prenatal visit as well as those that only become evident as the pregnancy progresses to the admission for delivery. We analyzed 9616 women. The regression equation for VBAC success included multiple factors that could not be known at the first prenatal visit. The area under the curve for this model was significantly greater ( P < 0.001) than that of a model that included only factors available at the first prenatal visit. A prediction model for VBAC success, which incorporates factors that can be ascertained only as the pregnancy progresses, adds to the predictive accuracy of a model that uses only factors available at a first prenatal visit.