Yingying Yan

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions, air quality and health have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

Foreign and domestic contributions to springtime ozone over China

China is facing a severe ozone problem, but the origin of its ozone remains unclear. Here we use a GEOSChem based global–regional two-way coupled model system to quantify the individual contributions of eight emission source regions worldwide to springtime ozone in 2008 over China. The model reproduces the observed ozone from 31 ground sites and various aircraft and ozonesonde measurements in China and nearby countries, with a mean bias of 10 %–15 % both near the surface and in the troposphere. We then combine zero-out simulations, tagged ozone simulations, and a linear weighting approach to account for the effect of nonlinear chemistry on ozone source attribution. We find considerable contributions of total foreign anthropogenic emissions to surface ozone over China (2–11 ppb). For ozone of anthropogenic origin averaged over China, foreign regions together contribute 40 %–60 % below the height of 2 km and 85 % in the upper troposphere. For total ozone contributed by foreign anthropogenic emissions over China at various heights, the portion of transboundary ozone produced within foreign emission source regions is less than 50 %, with the rest produced by precursors transported out of those source regions. Japan and Korea contribute 0.6–2.1 ppb of surface ozone over the east coastal regions. Southeast Asia contributes 1–5 ppb over much of southern China and South Asia contributes up to 5–10 ppb of surface ozone over the border of southwestern China; and their contributions increase with height due to strong upwelling over the source regions. The European contribution reaches 2.1–3.0 ppb for surface ozone over the northern border of China and 1.5 ppb in the lower troposphere averaged over China. North America contributes 0.9–2.7 ppb of surface ozone over most of China (1.5–2.1 ppb over the North China Plain), with a China average at 1.5–2.5 ppb at different heights below 8 km, due to its large anthropogenic emissions and the transport-favorable midlatitude westerly wind. In addition to domestic emission control, global emission reduction is critical for China’s ozone mitigation.