Yoko Hayama

Risk factors associated with within-herd transmission of bovine leukemia virus on dairy farms in Japan.

BackgroundAlthough several attempts have been made to control enzootic bovine leukosis (EBL) at the local level, a nationwide control program has not been implemented in Japan, except for passive surveillance. Effective control of EBL requires that the transmission routes of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection should be identified and intercepted based on scientific evidence. In this cross-sectional study, we examined the risk factors associated with within-herd transmission of BLV on infected dairy farms in Japan. Blood samples taken from 30 randomly selected adult cows at each of 139 dairy farms were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Information on herd management was collected using a structured questionnaire.ResultsInfected farms were defined as those with more than one ELISA-positive animal and accounted for 110 (79.1%) of the 139 farms in the study. Completed questionnaires obtained from 90 of these 110 farms were used for statistical analysis. Seroprevalence, which was defined as the proportions of animals that tested positive out of all animals tested on the farm, was 17.1%, 48.1%, and 68.5% for the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles, respectively. A mixed logistic regression analysis implicated a loose housing system, dehorning, and a large number of horseflies in summer as risk factors (coefficient = 0.71, 1.11, and 0.82; p = 0.03, < 0.01, and 0.01, respectively) and feeding of colostrum to newborn calves from their dams as a protective factor (coefficient = -1.11, p = 0.03) against within-farm transmission of BLV on infected farms.ConclusionControl of EBL in infected dairy farms in Japan will be improved by focusing particularly on these risk and protective factors.

Risk factors for local spread of foot-and-mouth disease, 2010 epidemic in Japan

To provide a basis for effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevention measures, factors associated with local spread were investigated in this study using data of the 2010 FMD epidemic in Japan. Thirty-eight local clusters within a 500-m radius from source farms were selected. In the clusters with pig source farms, more neighboring farms were infected in a short time compared with the clusters with cattle source farms. The influence of distance and wind upon local spread did not show a significant difference between infected and noninfected neighboring farms. Large-size pig farms posed a greater risk of inducing local spread; the odds ratio with reference to small-size cattle farms was 16.73. Middle-size and large-size cattle farms had a greater risk of infection; odds ratios with reference to small-size cattle farms were 15.65 and 25.52, respectively. The present results are useful for understanding features of local spread and prioritizing farms for control measures.

Mathematical model of the 2010 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Japan and evaluation of control measures.

A large-scale foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic occurred in Japan in 2010. The epidemic arose in an area densely populated with cattle and pigs, continued for 3 months, and was contained by emergency vaccination. In this study, a mathematical simulation model of FMD transmission between farms was developed to generate the disease spread in the affected area. First, a farm-distance-based transmission kernel was estimated using the epidemic data. The estimated transmission kernel was then incorporated into the transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of several control measures. The baseline model provided a good fit to the observed data during the period from imposition of movement restrictions until the implementation of vaccination. Our simulation results demonstrated that prompt culling on infected farms after detection could contribute to reducing the disease spread. The number of infected farms decreased to 30% of the baseline model by applying the 24-h prompt culling scenario. The early detection scenario resulted in a smaller-sized epidemic. However, the results of this scenario included a 35% chance of large-scale epidemic (more than 500 infected farms), even when the disease was detected 14 days earlier than in the baseline model. As additional options, preemptive culling could halt the epidemic more effectively. However, the preemptive culling scenario required substantial resources for culling operations. The 1-km preemptive scenario involved more than 50 farms remaining to be culled per day. Therefore, preemptive culling scenarios accompanied some difficulties in maintaining a sufficient capacity for culling in the affected area. A 10-km vaccination 7 days after the first detection of the disease demonstrated the potential to contain the epidemic to a small scale, while implementation of a 3-km vaccination on the same day could not effectively reduce epidemic size. In vaccination scenarios, the total number of farms that were either culled or vaccinated exceeded that of the baseline model. Vaccination scenarios therefore posed a problem of appropriate management of many vaccinated animals, whether these vaccinated animals would be culled or not. The present FMD transmission model developed using the 2010 FMD epidemic data in Japan provides useful information for consideration of suitable control strategies against FMD.

Analysis of risk factors associated with bovine leukemia virus seropositivity within dairy and beef breeding farms in Japan: A nationwide survey

This cross-sectional study evaluated risk factors associated with farm-level bovine leukemia virus (BLV) seropositivity in 563 dairy and 490 beef farms throughout Japan. Twenty randomly selected cattle on each farm were serologically tested, and farm epidemiologiocal information was obtained through face-to-face interviews. Due to the large number of zero-prevalence dairy and beef farms, data analysis was performed using a zero-inflated negative binomial model, which revealed that the common risk factors associated with higher within-farm seroprevalence were past detection of clinical leukemia and presence of blood-sucking insects. Loose housing on dairy farms and direct contact between calves and adult cattle on beef farms were also identified as risk factors. With regard to farm-level presence of BLV, the presence of purchased cattle was found to be a risk factor in both sectors. Sending heifers to a common ranch was identified as an additional risk factor for dairy farms.

Risk factors for the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease during the 2010 outbreak in Japan: a case–control study

BackgroundIn 2010, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occurred for the first time in a decade in Japan. Movement or shipment of people and animals around infected farms was restricted; however these contingency measures proved insufficient to prevent FMD spread. Consequently, a total of 292 farms were confirmed as infected during this outbreak. We conducted a case–control study to identify the risk factors associated with FMD transmission between farms during these restrictions. As there was discordance in the control measures taken, risk factors were examined separately for two areas. Analyses were also performed separately for cattle and pig farms given their different infectivity and susceptibility.ResultsFor cattle farms in the movement restriction area, the odds of having the factor ‘farm equipment was shared with other farms’ was significantly higher for case farms than for control farms. For cattle farms in the shipment restriction area, the odds of having the factors ‘feed transport vehicles visited the farm’ and ‘staff of livestock-related companies visited the farm’ were significantly higher on case farms than control farms. In pig farms in the movement restriction area, the odds of having factor ‘farm staff commuted from outside’ was 20 times higher for case farms than control farms. In addition, case farms were less likely to have the factors ‘fattening farm’ and ‘barn has physical barriers’ compared with control farms.ConclusionsIn the movement restriction area, the disease was likely to spread regardless of the movement of people and vehicles, and physical barriers were found to be a protective factor. Therefore, physical barriers from the surrounding environments seemed to prevent farms from being infected. Conversely, in the shipment restriction area, movement of people and vehicles was strongly associated with disease spread. These results allow a better understanding of the risk factors associated with FMD transmission and are useful to enhance future preventive measures against transmission during FMD outbreaks.

Flight behavior of adult Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides maculatus under different temperatures in the laboratory

The flight behavior of adult Culicoides biting midges is associated with their likelihood to reach nearby host animals and spread diseases. Therefore, evaluating the effects of atmospheric factors on the flight performances of these insects is important for understanding the spread of diseases in various circumstances. We evaluated the effects of different temperatures on the flight behavior of Culicoides oxystoma and Culicoides maculatus under laboratory conditions. The flight activities for both species particularly increased in the range between 10°C and 20°C, while the activities under 10°C were very limited for both species. The temperature when one half of the proportion of insects had flown was estimated to be 18.1°C for C. oxystoma and slightly higher than the value of 17.4°C for C. maculatus by fitting sigmoid curves. However, the wide 95% confidence interval observed for C. maculatus did not statistically justify the difference. The flight behavior of adult Culicoides biting midges was highly influenced by temperature. Our results would be of use for modeling studies or geographical analyses of diseases transmitted by these insects.

Sampling strategies in antimicrobial resistance monitoring: evaluating how precision and sensitivity vary with the number of animals sampled per farm.

Because antimicrobial resistance in food-producing animals is a major public health concern, many countries have implemented antimicrobial monitoring systems at a national level. When designing a sampling scheme for antimicrobial resistance monitoring, it is necessary to consider both cost effectiveness and statistical plausibility. In this study, we examined how sampling scheme precision and sensitivity can vary with the number of animals sampled from each farm, while keeping the overall sample size constant to avoid additional sampling costs. Five sampling strategies were investigated. These employed 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 animal samples per farm, with a total of 12 animals sampled in each strategy. A total of 1,500 Escherichia coli isolates from 300 fattening pigs on 30 farms were tested for resistance against 12 antimicrobials. The performance of each sampling strategy was evaluated by bootstrap resampling from the observational data. In the bootstrapping procedure, farms, animals, and isolates were selected randomly with replacement, and a total of 10,000 replications were conducted. For each antimicrobial, we observed that the standard deviation and 2.5–97.5 percentile interval of resistance prevalence were smallest in the sampling strategy that employed 1 animal per farm. The proportion of bootstrap samples that included at least 1 isolate with resistance was also evaluated as an indicator of the sensitivity of the sampling strategy to previously unidentified antimicrobial resistance. The proportion was greatest with 1 sample per farm and decreased with larger samples per farm. We concluded that when the total number of samples is pre-specified, the most precise and sensitive sampling strategy involves collecting 1 sample per farm.

Network simulation modeling of equine infectious anemia in the non-racehorse population in Japan

An equine infectious anemia (EIA) transmission model was developed by constructing a network structure of horse movement patterns in a non-racehorse population. This model was then used to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of several EIA surveillance strategies. Because EIA had not been detected in Japan since 1993, it was appropriate to review the current surveillance strategy, which aims to eradicate EIA by intensive testing, and to consider alternative strategies suitable for the current EIA status in Japan. The non-racehorse population was divided into four sectors based on horse usage: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, and fattening sector. To evaluate the risk of disease spread within and between sectors accompanied by horse movements, a stochastic individual-based network model was developed based on a previous survey of horse movement patterns. Surveillance parameters such as targeting sectors and frequency of testing were added into the model to compare surveillance strategies. The disease spread heterogeneously among sectors. Infection occurred mainly in the equestrian sector; the infection was less disseminated in other sectors. Therefore, we considered that the equestrian sector posed a higher risk of disease dissemination within and between sectors through horse movements. However, surveillance strategies targeting only the equestrian sector were not effective enough for early detection of the disease. Alternatively, targeting horses that moved permanently and those in the private owner sector in addition to the equestrian sector is recommended to achieve effectiveness equivalent to that of the current surveillance. In terms of surveillance efficacy, by increasing the testing interval (once yearly to once every 3 years), this testing scheme could reduce the number of tested horses to 44% of the current surveillance, while maintaining almost equivalent effectiveness. Intensive strategies targeting high-risk populations are considered to enhance effectiveness and efficiency of surveillance. The approach in this study may be helpful in the decision-making process that is involved in setting up strategies for risk-based surveillance.

Fraction of bovine leukemia virus-infected dairy cattle developing enzootic bovine leukosis

Enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) is a transmissible disease caused by the bovine leukemia virus that is prevalent in cattle herds in many countries. Only a small fraction of infected animals develops clinical symptoms, such as malignant lymphosarcoma, after a long incubation period. In the present study, we aimed to determine the fraction of EBL-infected dairy cattle that develop lymphosarcoma and the length of the incubation period before clinical symptoms emerge. These parameters were determined by a mathematical modeling approach based on the maximum-likelihood estimation method, using the results of a nationwide serological survey of prevalence in cattle and passive surveillance records. The best-fit distribution to estimate the disease incubation period was determined to be the Weibull distribution, with a median and average incubation period of 7.0 years. The fraction of infected animals developing clinical disease was estimated to be 1.4% with a 95% confidence interval of 1.2-1.6%. The parameters estimated here contribute to an examination of efficient control strategies making quantitative evaluation available.

The role of neighboring infected cattle in bovine leukemia virus transmission risk

A cohort study was conducted to evaluate the risk of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) transmission to uninfected cattle by adjacent infected cattle in 6 dairy farms. Animals were initially tested in 2010–2011 using a commercial ELISA kit. Uninfected cattle were repeatedly tested every 4 to 6 months until fall of 2012. The Cox proportional hazard model with frailty showed that uninfected cattle neighboring to infected cattle (n=53) had a significant higher risk of seroconversion than those without any infected neighbors (n=81) (hazard ratio: 12.4, P=0.001), implying that neighboring infected cattle were a significant risk factor for BLV transmission. This finding provides scientific support for animal health authorities and farmers to segregate infected cattle on farms to prevent spread of BLV.