Yong U. Glasure

Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables

Abstract Results of this paper indicate that the real oil price is a major determinant of real national income and energy consumption. The combined effects of real money and real government expenditure on real income and energy consumption are also substantial. A lack of causality or the causality between energy and real income in prior studies is due to the omitted variables. Results also confirm that the two oil price shocks combined adversely affected real national income.

Economic Voting in South Korea: Pocketbook or Sociotropic?

Using 2003 Asian Barometer Survey study data, this paper examines the economic voting model in the 2002 presidential election in South Korea. The core emphasis of the paper is on an investigation of the relative effects of different dimensions/scopes of economic evaluations on voting behavior, namely whether one form of assessment (e.g., pocketbook vs. sociotropic) can have similar consequences for electoral participation as others. The findings indicate that the overall economy is salient for Koreans to shape their political choices. In other words, voting behavior in Korea depends on how she or he thinks the national economy has been for the past five years. Also found is that voters’ perceptions of their own personal financial situations did not matter much as a predictor of voter choice.

On the different forms of returns from moving average buy-sell trading rule in the stock market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine three different forms of returns based on the price difference, percentage change, and difference in logarithm price from moving average buy-sell trading rule. Statistical linear correlation, the means of returns from buy/sell days, and the flexibility of long-term moving periods are examined. Design/methodology/approach Traditional linear correlations, pairwise student t-test, and ϕ coefficient for two binary buy/sell decision variables are studied from the simple block bootstrap (convenience) sampling from S&P, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ price indices from January 29, 1985 to January 6, 2016. Findings The authors find that different forms of returns from MA(1-50) are strongly linearly correlated via 150 simple block bootstrap (convenience) samples from SP therefore, the length of periods used in long-period moving average is flexible. Originality/value It is one of the first studies about different forms of returns, their conclusions on the market efficiency, and the flexibility of long-term moving period for moving average buy/sell technical rules.

Is the simple trading range break-out rule profitable from the NASDAQ index?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the profitability from various simple trading range break-out rules on the NASDAQ index. Design/methodology/approach Runs test is used to test whether the returns from every other days on buy and sell days are random. If they are not random, then the Student T-test will not be applicable to test the predictive power for profitability from the simple trading range break-out rules on the NASDAQ index. Findings Empirical study in this paper shows that the returns on buy and sell days are not random via runs test. Therefore, the simple trading range break-out rules cannot lead to the conclusion that they have the predictive power for profitability from the T-test. Applying the simple trading range break-out rule to NASDAQ does not support or overturn the market efficiency hypothesis. Research limitations/implications The study is only based on the five simple trading range break-out rules from 9,311 daily closing prices on the NASDAQ over the period of February 5, 1971 to December 12, 2007. It can serve as a counter example for other studies about the predictive power of profitability from different trading rules. Practical implications Contrary to numerous previous research works, the study shows that the simple trading range break-out rules have no predictive power for profitability, and should not be used to test the market efficiency. Originality/value Based on the literature review, the study is one of the first empirical studies showing the returns on buy and sell days are not independent, and the authors cannot conclude that the trading range break-out rules have the predictive power for profitability on the NASDAQ index.