Yonghong Hao

Linkages between Large-Scale Climate Patterns and Karst Spring Discharge in Northern China

AbstractThe Niangziguan Springs (NS) discharge is used as a proxy indicator of the variability of the karst groundwater system in relation to major climate indices such as El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), and west North Pacific monsoon (WNPM). The relationships between spring discharge and these climate indices are determined using the multitaper method (MTM), continuous wavelet transform (CWT), and wavelet transform coherence (WTC). Significant periodic components of spring discharge in the 1-, 3.4-, and 26.8-yr periodicities are identified and reconstructed for further investigation of the correlation between spring discharge and large-scale climate patterns on these time scales. Correlation coefficients and WTC between spring discharge and the climate indices indicate that variability in spring discharge is significantly and positively correlated with monsoon indices in the 1-yr periodicity and negatively correlated with ENSO in the 3....

On the teleconnection patterns to precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, China

The Tianshan Mountains are known as thexa0“water tower” in the arid region of Central Asia. Change in precipitation amount and pattern can have a profound impact on regional civilization and life supporting ecosystems. For this study, a systematic analysis of long-term precipitation data for the eastern Tianshan Mountains was conducted to investigate the influence of climate teleconnections on annual and intra-annual precipitation using data collected between 1951 and 2014 from 39 meteorological stations. Annual precipitation has increased during the past six decades at an average rate of 6.7xa0mm/10xa0years largely due to the increase in precipitation during the intra-annual wet period (May–October). The annual precipitation and its rate of increase were higher in the northwestern region. Annual precipitation was found to be most strongly correlated with index of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), and partially correlated with indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ISM was positively correlated with the precipitation in almost the entire region during the intra-annual wet period, while it showed positive correlations in the northern slope and the alpine region, and negative correlations in the southern slope during the intra-annual dry period (November to April). PDO had much weaker influence both in spatial scale and strength and primarily affected low elevations on the southern slopes of the middle and western regions. The impacts of PNA and AO on precipitation were weak and localized. ENSO and NAO indices were almost not correlated with annual precipitation observation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains.

The effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on the Niangziguan Karst Spring discharge in North China

Abstract Karst aquifers supply drinking water for 25xa0% of the world’s population, and they are, however, vulnerable to climate change. This study is aimed to investigate the effects of various monsoons and teleconnection patterns on Niangziguan Karst Spring (NKS) discharge in North China for sustainable exploration of the karst groundwater resources. The monsoons studied include the Indian Summer Monsoon, the West North Pacific Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon. The climate teleconnection patterns explored include the Indian Ocean Dipole, E1 Niño Southern Oscillation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The wavelet transform and wavelet coherence methods are used to analyze the karst hydrological processes in the NKS Basin, and reveal the relations between the climate indices with precipitation and the spring discharge. The study results indicate that both the monsoons and the climate teleconnections significantly affect precipitation in the NKS Basin. The time scales that the monsoons resonate with precipitation are strongly concentrated on the time scales of 0.5-, 1-, 2.5- and 3.5-year, and thatxa0climate teleconnections resonate with precipitation are relatively weak and diverged from 0.5-, 1-, 2-, 2.5-, to 8-year time scales, respectively. Because the climate signals have to overcome the resistance of heterogeneous aquifers before reaching spring discharge, with high energy, the strong climate signals (e.g. monsoons) are ablexa0to penetrate through aquifers and act on spring discharge. So the spring discharge is more strongly affected by monsoons than the climate teleconnections. During the groundwater flow process, the precipitation signals will be attenuated, delayed, merged, and changed by karst aquifers. Therefore, the coherence coefficients between the spring discharge and climate indices are smaller than those between precipitationxa0and climate indices. Further, the fluctuation of the spring discharge is not coincident with that of precipitation in most situations. Karst spring discharge as a proxy can represent groundwater resource variability at a regional scale, and is more strongly influenced by climate variation.

Impact of Plant Functional Types on Coherence Between Precipitation and Soil Moisture: A Wavelet Analysis

Mapping the spatiotemporal patterns of soil moisture within heterogeneous landscapes is important for resource management and for the understanding of hydrological processes. A critical challenge in this mapping is comparing remotely-sensed or in-situ observations from areas with different vegetation cover but subject to the same precipitation regime. We address this challenge by wavelet analysis of multi-year observations of soil moisture profiles from adjacent areas with contrasting plant functional types (grassland, woodland, and encroached) and precipitation. The analysis reveals the differing soil moisture patterns and dynamics between plant functional types. The coherence at high-frequency periodicities between precipitation and soil moisture generally decreases with depth but this is much more pronounced under woodland compared to grassland. Wavelet analysis provides new insights on soil moisture dynamics across plant functional types and is useful for assessing differences and similarities in landscapes with heterogeneous vegetation cover.

The influence of large-scale climate phenomena on precipitation in the Ordos Basin, China

Large-scale atmospheric circulations significantly affect regional precipitation patterns. However, it is not well known whether and how these phenomena affect regional precipitation distribution in northern China. This paper reported the individual and coupled effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian summer monsoon (ISM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on annual precipitation for the Ordos Basin, an arid and semi-arid basin, currently with major industries of coal, fossil oil, natural gas, and halite in north central China. Our results showed that ENSO and ISM exerted substantial impact on annual precipitation while the impact of PDO and AMO was relatively limited. There were 24 and 15 out of 33 stations showing significant differences (pxa0<xa00.1) in annual precipitation (from 1950 to 2013) for ENSO and ISM, respectively. The median precipitation across the basin during El Niño years was 21.49xa0% higher than that during La Niña years and 17.28xa0% higher during the positive phase of ISM years compared to the negative phase of the ISM years. The impacts of ENSO and ISM on precipitation were enhanced during a PDO cold phase but weakened in a PDO warm phase. The impact of ENSO was still enhanced by an AMO warm phase. The effects of climatic phenomena on precipitation showed a strong spatial difference in the Ordos Basin. The impact of ENSO was mostly evident around the edges of the basin while the impact of ISM decreases from south to north. The deserts (i.e., Hobq Desert and Mu Us Sandy Land) in the center of the basin were less affected by these large-scale climatic phenomena. An improved understanding of such relationships would be helpful in water resource planning and disaster management for the Ordos Basin.

Characterizing effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on precipitation in China using wavelet coherence and global coherence

Weather and climate in a location are generally affected by global climatic phenomena. Monsoons and teleconnections are two climatic phenomena that have been assessed in specific regions for their correlations with regional precipitation. This study characterized the effects of monsoons and climate teleconnections on precipitation in eight climate zones across China. Correlations between monthly precipitation from 1951 to 2013 across the eight zones and each of two important monsoon indices [the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM)] and two major teleconnection indices [El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)] were analyzed based on wavelet coherence and global coherence. The results demonstrated that on the annual timescale, monsoons have stronger effects than teleconnections on monthly precipitation in each of the eight climate zones. On the intra-annual (0.5–1xa0year) and inter-annual (2–10xa0year) scales, the ISM mainly affects precipitation in the East Arid Region, Northeastern China, Northern China, and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; the EASM mainly affects Northern China, Central China, and Southern China; the ENSO mainly affects Western Arid/Semiarid region and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; the PDO mainly affects the Western Arid/Semiarid region. On the decadal timescale, the ISM mainly affects the Western arid/Semiarid and Central China; the EASM mainly affects Western arid/Semiarid, Central China, and Qinghai–Tibet Plateau; the ENSO mainly affects Northeastern China and Central China; and the PDO mainly affects East arid and Southern China regions. These findings provide a practical reference for water resources management and/or for the prediction of precipitation in different regions of China.

Simulation of Nonstationary Spring Discharge Using Time Series Models

We present a detailed analysis and comparison of two time series models, i.e., ARIMA and ARIMA-GARCH, to simulate the discharge of a karst spring (Niangziguan Springs (NS) complex) in the northern China. Statistical tests for the residuals are applied to examine the reasonability of the models. Statistically, both models are reasonably good to simulate the mean value of the discharge of the NS complex. The statistical test shows that the residual discharge data have conditional time-varying variance and volatility clustering, known as heteroscedasticity of the data. Calibration test shows that the ARIMA-GARCH model gives a varying confidence interval, which can more effectively capture the heteroscedasticity of the data, comparing with a constant confidence interval in the ARIMA model. In the validation and application process, we applied two approaches to simulate the discharge data: (1) fixed models, and (2) evolving models. The confidence interval width monotonically increases in both fixed models, and the fixed ARIMA-GARCH model has faster increasing confidence interval width than the fixed ARIMA model. This suggests that the fixed time series models are only suitable for short-term prediction. However, we found that this drawback can be compensated by updating the model once new data become available. Our evolving models show more reasonable confidence interval width for both models. In addition, the application shows that the ARIMA-GARCH model is very sensitive to the data fluctuation. We also found the evolving ARIMA-GARCH model was able to return to the narrow confidence interval width once the fluctuation diminished. Hence, we conclude that the ARIMA-GARCH model is more suitable for the sequences with strong heteroscedasticity.

One-dimensional analytical solution for hydraulic head and numerical solution for solute transport through a horizontal fracture for submarine groundwater discharge

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) has been recognized as a major pathway of groundwater flow to coastal oceanic environments. It could affect water quality and marine ecosystems due to pollutants and trace elements transported through groundwater. Relations between different characteristics of aquifers and SGD have been investigated extensively before, but the role of fractures in SGD still remains unknown. In order to better understand the mechanism of groundwater flow and solute transport through fractures in SGD, one-dimensional analytical solutions of groundwater hydraulic head and velocity through a synthetic horizontal fracture with periodic boundary conditions were derived using a Laplace transform technique. Then, numerical solutions of solute transport associated with the given groundwater velocity were developed using a finite-difference method. The results indicated that SGD associated with groundwater flow and solute transport was mainly controlled by sea level periodic fluctuations, which altered the hydraulic head and the hydraulic head gradient in the fracture. As a result, the velocity of groundwater flow associated with SGD also fluctuated periodically. We found that the pollutant concentration associated with SGD oscillated around a constant value, and could not reach a steady state. This was particularly true at locations close to the seashore. This finding of the role of fracture in SGD will assist pollution remediation and marine conservation in coastal regions.