Yongyun Hu

Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data

Abstract A full description of the ModelE version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and results are presented for present-day climate simulations (ca. 1979). This version is a complete rewrite of previous models incorporating numerous improvements in basic physics, the stratospheric circulation, and forcing fields. Notable changes include the following: the model top is now above the stratopause, the number of vertical layers has increased, a new cloud microphysical scheme is used, vegetation biophysics now incorporates a sensitivity to humidity, atmospheric turbulence is calculated over the whole column, and new land snow and lake schemes are introduced. The performance of the model using three configurations with different horizontal and vertical resolutions is compared to quality-controlled in situ data, remotely sensed and reanalysis products. Overall, significant improvements over previous models are seen, particularly in upper-atmosphere te...

Reducing spread in climate model projections of a September ice-free Arctic

This paper addresses the specter of a September ice-free Arctic in the 21st century using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that large spread in the projected timing of the September ice-free Arctic in 30 CMIP5 models is associated at least as much with different atmospheric model components as with initial conditions. Here we reduce the spread in the timing of an ice-free state using two different approaches for the 30 CMIP5 models: (i) model selection based on the ability to reproduce the observed sea ice climatology and variability since 1979 and (ii) constrained estimation based on the strong and persistent relationship between present and future sea ice conditions. Results from the two approaches show good agreement. Under a high-emission scenario both approaches project that September ice extent will drop to ∼1.7 million km2 in the mid 2040s and reach the ice-free state (defined as 1 million km2) in 2054–2058. Under a medium-mitigation scenario, both approaches project a decrease to ∼1.7 million km2 in the early 2060s, followed by a leveling off in the ice extent.

Poleward Expansion of the Hadley Circulation in CMIP5 Simulations

Observational analyses have demonstrated that the Hadley circulation has expanded poleward in recent decades. Important issues are what caused the widening of the Hadley circulation and whether the observed widening is related to anthropogenic forcing. In the present study, we use currently available simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) to analyze changes in the width of the Hadley circulation. It is found that CMIP5 historical simulations with greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing generate a total widening of ∼0.15°±0.06° in latitude (10 yr)−1 for the period 1979–2005, and the widening in CMIP5 historical simulations with all forcings is ∼0.17° ± 0.06° per decade. Similar to that in CMIP3, the simulated poleward expansion in CMIP5 is much weaker than the observational reanalyses. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the 21st century, magnitudes of widening of the Hadley circulation increase with radiative forcing. For the extreme projected radiative forcing of RCP8.5, the total annual-mean widening of the Hadley circulation is ∼0.27° ± 0.04° (10 yr)−1 in the 21st century. Although CMIP5 underestimates observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, the results of this study suggest that the observed trends in the width of the Hadley circulation are caused by anthropogenic forcing and that increasing GHGs play an important role in the observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, in addition to other forcings emphasized in previous studies.

The Initiation of Modern “Soft Snowball” and “Hard Snowball” Climates in CCSM3. Part I: The Influences of Solar Luminosity, CO2 Concentration, and the Sea Ice/Snow Albedo Parameterization

The ‘‘Snowball Earth’’ hypothesis, proposed to explain the Neoproterozoic glacial episodes in the period 750‐580 millionyearsago, suggested that the earth wasgloballycovered by ice/snowduringthese events.This study addresses the problem of the forcings required for the earth to enter such a state of complete glaciation usingtheCommunityClimateSystemModel,version3(CCSM3).Allofthesimulationsperformedtoaddress this issue employ the geography and topography of the present-day earth and are employed to explore the combination of factors consisting of total solar luminosity, CO2 concentration, and sea ice/snow albedo parameterization that would be required for such an event to occur. The analyses demonstrate that the critical conditions beyond which runaway ice‐albedo feedback will lead to global freezing include 1) a 10%‐10.5% reduction in solar radiation with preindustrial greenhouse gas concentrations; 2) a 6% reduction in solar radiation with 17.5 ppmv CO2; or 3) 6% less solar radiation and 286 ppmv CO2 if sea ice albedo is equal to or greater than 0.60 with a snow albedo of 0.78, or if sea ice albedo is 0.58 with a snow albedo equal to or greater than 0.80. These bifurcation points are very sensitive to the sea ice and snow albedo parameterizations. Moreover, ‘‘soft Snowball’’ solutions are found in which tropical open water oceans stably coexist with yearround snow-covered low-latitude continents, implying that tropical continental ice sheets would actually be present. The authors conclude that a ‘‘soft Snowball’’ is entirely plausible, in which the global sea ice fraction may reach as high as 76% and sea ice margins may extend to 108S(N) latitudes.

Role of ocean heat transport in climates of tidally locked exoplanets around M dwarf stars

Significance Tidal-locking planets receive very uneven stellar heating because their one side permanently faces their stars and the other remains dark. While the dayside can be warm enough to sustain liquid water, the nightside could be so cold that any gases would condense out. Here, we perform simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model to demonstrate the importance of exooceanography in determining the habitability of tidal-locking exoplanets around M dwarfs. We show that ocean heat transport can substantially extend the dayside habitable area and efficiently warm the nightside, so that atmosphere collapse does not occur. As greenhouse effect or stellar radiation is sufficiently strong, ocean heat transport can even cause global deglaciation. Ocean heat transport also likely narrows the width of M dwarfs’ habitable zone. The distinctive feature of tidally locked exoplanets is the very uneven heating by stellar radiation between the dayside and nightside. Previous work has focused on the role of atmospheric heat transport in preventing atmospheric collapse on the nightside for terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone around M dwarfs. In the present paper, we carry out simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to investigate the role of ocean heat transport in climate states of tidally locked habitable exoplanets around M dwarfs. Our simulation results demonstrate that ocean heat transport substantially extends the area of open water along the equator, showing a lobster-like spatial pattern of open water, instead of an “eyeball.” For sufficiently high-level greenhouse gases or strong stellar radiation, ocean heat transport can even lead to complete deglaciation of the nightside. Our simulations also suggest that ocean heat transport likely narrows the width of M dwarfs’ habitable zone. This study provides a demonstration of the importance of exooceanography in determining climate states and habitability of exoplanets.

The Initiation of Modern ''Soft Snowball'' and ''Hard Snowball'' Climates in CCSM3. Part II: Climate Dynamic Feedbacks

This study investigates the climate dynamic feedbacks during a transition from the present climate to the extremely cold climate of a ‘‘Snowball Earth’’ using the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3). With the land‐sea distributionfixed to modern, it is found that by reducing solar luminosity and/or carbon dioxide concentration: 1) the amount of atmospheric water vapor and its attendant greenhouse effect decrease with the logarithm of sea ice cover, thereby promoting the expansion of sea ice; 2) over the sea ice, the cloud radiative feedback is positive, thus enhancing sea ice advance; over the ocean, the cloud radiative feedback is first negative and then becomes positive as sea ice enters the tropics; and 3) the strength of the atmospheric Hadley cell and the wind-driven ocean circulation increases significantly in the Southern Hemisphere, inhibiting the expansion of sea ice into the tropics. Meanwhile, the North Atlantic Deep Water cell disappears and the Antarctic Bottom Water cell strengthens and expands to occupy almost the entire Atlantic basin. In the experiment with 6% less solar radiation and 70 ppmv CO2 compared to the control experiment with 100% solar radiation and 355 ppmv CO2 near the ice edge (288S latitude), the changes of solar radiation, CO2 forcing, water vapor greenhouse effect, longwave cloud forcing at the top of the model, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport are 222.4, 26.2, 254.4, 16.2, and 116.3 W m 22 , respectively. Therefore, the major controlling factors in producing global ice cover are ice albedo feedback (Yang et al., Part I) and water vapor feedback.

Anthropogenic forcing on the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 simulations

AbstractPoleward expansion of the Hadley circulation has been an important topic in climate change studies in the past few years, and one of the critically important issues is how it is related to anthropogenic forcings. Using simulations from the coupled model intercomparison projection phase 5 (CMIP5), we study influences of anthropogenic forcings on the width and strength of the Hadley circulation. It is found that significant poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation can be reproduced in CMIP5 historical all-forcing simulations although the magnitude of trends is much weaker than observations. Simulations with individual forcings demonstrate that among three major types of anthropogenic forcings, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion all cause poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation, whereas anthropogenic aerosols do not have significant influences on the Hadley circulation. Increasing GHGs cause significant poleward expansion in both hemispheres, with the largest widening of the northern cell in boreal autumn. Stratospheric ozone depletion forces significant poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation for the southern cell in austral spring and summer and for the northern cell in boreal spring. In CMIP5 projection simulations for the twenty-first century, the magnitude of poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation increases with GHG forcing. On the other hand, ozone recovery competes with increasing GHGs in determining the width of the Hadley circulation, especially in austral summer. In both historical and projection simulations, the strength of the Hadley circulation shows significant weakening in winter in both hemispheres.

Has Arctic Sea Ice Loss Contributed to Increased Surface Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet

AbstractIn recent decades, the Greenland ice sheet has experienced increased surface melt. However, the underlying cause of this increased surface melting and how it relates to cryospheric changes across the Arctic remain unclear. Here it is shown that an important contributing factor is the decreasing Arctic sea ice. Reduced summer sea ice favors stronger and more frequent occurrences of blocking-high pressure events over Greenland. Blocking highs enhance the transport of warm, moist air over Greenland, which increases downwelling infrared radiation, contributes to increased extreme heat events, and accounts for the majority of the observed warming trends. These findings are supported by analyses of observations and reanalysis data, as well as by independent atmospheric model simulations using a state-of-the-art atmospheric model that is forced by varying only the sea ice conditions. Reduced sea ice conditions in the model favor more extensive Greenland surface melting. The authors find a positive feedba...

Revisiting the Potential of Melt Pond Fraction as a Predictor for the Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum

The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond fraction in May. Here we show that satellite observations show no evidence of predictive skill in May. However, we find that a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) first emerges as the melt pond fraction is integrated from early May to late June, with a persistent strong relationship only occurring after late July. Our results highlight that late spring to mid summer melt pond information is required to improve the prediction skill of the seasonal sea ice minimum. Furthermore, satellite observations indicate a much higher percentage of melt pond formation in May than does the aforementioned model simulation, which points to the need to reconcile model simulations and observations, in order to better understand key mechanisms of melt pond formation and evolution and their influence on sea ice state.

Ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes associated with prominent ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes trends during 1958–2013

Three prominent features of ocean surface turbulent heat fluxes (THF) trends during 1958–2013 are identified based on the Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data set. The associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics changes are further investigated based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. First, the THF are enhanced over the mid-latitude expansions of the subtropical western boundary currents (WBCs). An intensified oceanic heat transport, forced by stronger near-surface zonal wind, is likely to be the cause of such THF tendency. Second, the THF are reduced over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which is primarily caused by the decreasing near-surface wind speed and sea surface temperature (SST), associated with a local coupled ocean-atmosphere cooling mode. Finally, the THF are reduced over the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is attributed to the decreasing air-sea humidity and temperature differences as a result of the convergence of near-surface air and the divergence of ocean currents (upwelling).