Yoshitsugu Hayashi

The Role of Rail Transport for Sustainable Urban Transport

As an efficient mass transit system, rail transit system plays an important role for sustainability of mega-cities. Unfortunately, in many developing mega-cities, governments and international funding organizations prefer to invest in roads. Therefore, rail construction has lagged far behind road construction, and consequently those mega-cities always face serious congestion, which has even hindered economic development and caused catastrophic increase of CO2 emissions. There would be more than 50 mega-cities over ten million population in 2050 in Asian developing countries including China and India. According to IEA’s forecast, car ownership in Asian developing countries will grow between 2000 and 2050 by about 20 times. Unless the basic strategy in redesigning urban transport and the financing system for urban rail transit systems would be substantially improved, it is very likely that mega-cities over ten million populations without rail transit systems appear. In this paper, based on the study of the mechanism to cause chaotic congestion, land use-transport instruments and financing public transport as way out from catastrophe are proposed. AVOID, SHIFT and IMPROVE are set as three steps to mitigate CO2 emission in transport sector. Value capture mechanism for domestic financing and reforms on CDM and ODA for international financing are also suggested, making invisible windfall benefits to be visibly reclaimed, as well as achieving better public-private supports.

Issues in financing urban rail transit projects and value captures

Urban rail transit projects are suffering from the cost burden in Japan because the current financing system is dependent on borrowed money by loans and bonds that are repaid mainly by fares. The fund cannot bear the increasing expenditure demand due to the accelerated construction demand and the rising cost of land acquisition. This paper reexamines the financing system and analyses the possible menus for fund-raising from the viewpoint of imbalance between benefit receivers and cost burdeners on the basis of benefit principle, referring to Japanese examples.

Modelling the long-term effects of transport and land use policies on industrial locational behaviour: A discrete choice model system

Abstract This paper describes a disaggregate behavioural model system developed for forecasting industrial locations. It is structured basically in terms of a nested logit model, covering relocation decisions, area-wide locational choices and local locational choices together with shipment destination choices. Several techniques are developed to overcome the difficulties in the application of discrete choice models to spatial problems. The model system was calibrated for the Nagoya metropolitan area in Japan and its validity was tested using another data set. It allows analysis of the effects of transport and land use policies not only by zone but also by firms of different attributes such as sector and capital size.

Recent trends in nitrogen flows with urbanization in the Shanghai megacity and the effects on the water environment

The objectives of this study are to diagnose and prevent environmental problems that threaten urban sustainability, the impact of changes in lifestyle (diet, domestic sanitation, and motorization), and production style (agriculture, industry, and services) with the rapid urbanization on regional nitrogen (N) flows, and the water environment was quantitatively evaluated. The megacity Shanghai was chosen as a case study to investigate the temporal changes in nitrogen flow during 1980–2008 by a multidisciplinary approach (a field survey, a regional nitrogen mass balance model, input-output analysis, etc.). Although the total potential nitrogen load in Shanghai has decreased in the 2000s and water pollution problems seem to have improved, the problem has shifted and expanded to affect a wider area through the food/product chain and water/air movement. Further effective solutions that aim at material cycles are necessary and have to be implemented on a large scale.

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions increase from the passenger transport sector in Shanghai, China

This study identified the relationships between CO2 emissions from passenger transport and its driving factors by taking Shanghai as an example. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) technique was used to disassemble the total passenger transport CO2 growth into five driving factors: economic activity, population, modal share, passenger transport intensity and passenger transport CO2 emission factor. The study found that: (1) in 2009, the passenger transport CO2 emissions in Shanghai increased by 2.59 times against that of 2000; (2) the increased economic activity was the main factor driving passenger transport CO2 emissions growth from 2000 to 2009 that accounted for 75% of the total passenger transport CO2 emissions growth in Shanghai; (3) the effects of modal share change and population growth were relatively small but not trivial; and (4) The inhibitory effects of passenger transport CO2 emissions growth were 90% from the improvement of passenger transport intensity, and 10% from the changes of passenger transport CO2 emission factor. However, these effects were too small to offset the whole increase.

Improved feedback modeling of transport in enlarging urban areas of developing countries

Toward the common issue of quick urban sprawls of many cities in developing countries today, this research incorporates the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm into the feedback application process of a newly developed feedback model to improve the modeling studies of the urban transport prediction and planning for the developments of the cities with their urban areas enlarged in the future. By utilizing the survey data obtained in Jabodetabek metropolitan region of Indonesia in 2002, the study results numerically confirm that the iteratively computational calibrations to the K-factors for the newly urbanized areas of a developing city by employing the EM algorithm in the feedback process can truly improve the validity of the proposed feedback model’s application to effectively predict the urban transport developments of developing cities in the future.

Economic and Equity Evaluation of Delhi Metro

This paper examines the economic and equity implications of the introduction of a metro system in Delhi. Generalized cost of each mode is used as an indicator of mobility, where as, accessibility is measured in terms of consumer surplus. A combined mode destination choice model is employed to assess the change in the generalized costs of existing modes after the metro introduction. The accessibility benefits of a metro are estimated using the logsum approach to estimate the consumer surplus of transit riders. The well established quantitative measure of equity, the GINI coefficient, is used to link mobility and accessibility to equity. Results indicate a reduction in the generalized costs of three existing modes, i.e. bus, car and the two wheelers. The magnitude of change is the lowest for bus and the highest for two wheelers. The estimated average change in welfare according the calibrated model is 45.32 Rs/trip (0.923

A Data Envelopment Analysis for Evaluating the Performance of China's Urban Public Transport Systems

US) which equals 90.64 Rs/day (1.85

GIS‐Based Analysis of Railway’s Origin/Destination Path‐Selecting Behavior

US), assuming two work trips per person per day. The results of the equity measure indicate a shift towards the line of perfect equality, concluding that the introduction of metro shows a positive impact on equity (of mobility and accessibility).

The effects of economic restructuring on China's system for financing transport infrastructure

This paper investigates the efficiency of urban public transport systems in China using a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Based on the data from 652 China cities in 2004 and 2006, we found that the overall efficiency of urban public transport systems is relatively low but showed signs of improvement from 2004 to 2006. The urban public transport systems in east coast, south coast and middle Changjiang river areas have relatively higher efficiencies than those of others, which is consistent with the uneven distribution of the economic level and investment on public transport among regions throughout China. The policy implications on the basis of this study are that increased investment on the public transport sector, especially in less developed areas, together with the development of an urban rail transit mode would be effective ways of enhancing the efficiencies of urban public transport systems.