Yothin Jinjarak

The collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax: Theory and international evidence

This paper evaluates the political economy and structural factors explaining the collection efficiency of the Value Added Tax (VAT), where the collection efficiency is determined by the probability of audit and by the penalty on underpaying, and implementation lags imply that the present policy maker determines the efficiency of the tax system next period. Theory suggests that the collection efficiency is affected by political economy considerations – greater polarization and political instability would reduce the efficiency of the tax collection, and collection is impacted by structural factors affecting the ease of tax evasion (such as urbanization, agriculture share, openness). We evaluate the VAT collection efficiency (VAT revenue over the aggregate consumption divided by the standard VAT rate) in a panel of 44 countries over 1970–99. A one standard deviation increase in durability of political regime, and in the ease and fluidity of political participation, increases the VAT collection efficiency by 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively. A one standard deviation increase in urbanization, trade openness and the share of agriculture, changes the VAT collection efficiency by 12.7%, 3.9% and −4.8%, respectively. Qualitatively identical results apply for the ratio of VAT revenue to GDP divided by the standard VAT.

Capital Controls in Brazil – Stemming a Tide with a Signal

Controls on capital inflows have been experiencing a renaissance since 2008, with several prominent emerging markets implementing them in recent years. We focus on Brazil, which instituted five changes in its capital account regime in 2008–2011. Using the synthetic control method, we construct counterfactuals (i.e., Brazil with no policy change) for each of these changes. We find no evidence that any tightening of controls was effective in reducing the magnitudes of capital inflows, but we observe some modest and short-lived success in preventing further declines in inflows when the capital controls were relaxed. We hypothesize that price-based capital controls’ only perceptible effect is to be found in the content of the signal they broadcast regarding the government’s larger intentions and sensibilities. In the case of Brazil, its left-of-center government’s willingness to remove controls was perceived as a noteworthy indication that the government was not as hostile to the international financial markets as many expected it to be.

The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account

This paper evaluates the degree to which current account patterns are explained by the variables suggested by the literature, and reflects on possible future patterns. We start with panel regressions explaining the current account of 69 countries during 1981-2006. We identify an asymmetric effect of the US as the “demander of last resort:” a 1% increase in the lagged US imports/GDP is associated with 0.3% increase of current account surpluses of countries running surpluses, but with insignificant changes of current account deficits of countries running deficits. Overall, the panel regressions account for not more than 4/5 of the variation. We apply the regression results to assess China’s current account over the next six years, projecting a large drop in its account/GDP surpluses.

On the Causality between Trade Credits and Imports: Evidence and Possible Implication for Trade Penalties on Debt Defaults

Abstract This study investigates the association between trade credits and imports of developing countries. Made available by its creditors, the main function of trade credits is to facilitate cross-border transactions of goods and services. This study finds that the reliance of imports on trade credits varies across regions and income: towards the end of the 1990s, the trade credits to imports ratio ranged from 0.20 for East Asia & the Pacific to 0.87 for Africa, and from 0.24 for high-income countries to 0.79 for low-income countries. Applying panel and cross-country estimation, we find that past trade credits help predict current imports, but past imports do not alter the future path of trade credits. Further, the positive association between trade credits and imports is larger for countries more dependent upon trade credits. The findings support the notion that countries make debt repayments to avoid any potential disruption on the line of trade credits. We also find that the trade credits penalty could materialize within less than two quarters.

Financial panic and emerging market funds

This article studies equity investment of emerging-market funds based on the 2003–2009 weekly data and compares the dynamics of flow and return between tranquil period and financial panic based on the experience of the latest 2008–2009 global financial crisis. First, we find that the well-documented positive feedback trading is a tranquil-period phenomenon such that it is more difficult in general for emerging-market funds to attract new investment in financial panic. Second, the predictive power of flow on return is driven by a combination of price pressure and information effects in tranquil period, while the information effect dominates in financial panic. Third, the underlying co-movements or contagion of flow across the emerging-market funds influence the association between flow and return. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of accounting for state-dependent dynamics as well as cross-regional co-movements in the analysis of flow and return.

Why Do SMEs Not Borrow More from Banks? Evidence from the People's Republic of China and Southeast Asia

This study examines the relationship between firm characteristics and borrowing from commercial banks by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and five Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam). Analysis of microdata from enterprise surveys highlights key aspects of SME finance since the global financial crisis, including sources of credit, lender types, and collateral types. First, SMEs typically resort to internal sources rather than external finance (including borrowing from banks) and trade credit. Second, when it comes to external finance, SMEs typically use informal non-bank credit sources more than banks. Third, there is a positive and significant association between bank borrowing and certain characteristics of SMEs, notably financial audits, firm age, and export participation. Fourth, personal assets of SME owners tend to matter more as collateral for SME borrowing from banks than other collateral types. Improving credit guarantee systems, enhancing monitoring and credit scoring by banks, and widening the scope of collateral are possible ways to facilitate increased bank borrowing by SMEs.

The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-2010: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space, and Exchange Rate Adjustment

The global crisis of 2008–2009 focused attention on the role of fi scal policy at times of collapsing aggregate demand. Concerns about experiencing a reincarnation of the great depression induced the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (highincome group) and emerging market countries to invoke extraordinary policies for extraordinary times. Countries adopted sizable fi scal stimuli, augmented by unprecedented monetary expansions supported by elastic swap lines between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and between the Fed and four emerging markets. The fl ight to quality and the shortage of dollar liquidity posed a special challenge for emerging markets, inducing them to supplement these policies with both large sales of foreign currencies at the height of the crisis and with sizable depreciations. Yet there has been a remarkable heterogeneity in the magnitudes of the fi scal stimuli, and of the exchange rate depreciation. The differential patterns of response are traced in table 1, summarizing the fi scal stimulus/GDP and the depreciation rate in 32 countries, chosen by data availability. The fi rst three columns overview the crisis related fi scal stimulus / GDP, 2009–2011, in OECD countries and emerging markets. The crisis led to a signifi cant fi scal stimulus in the United States, Japan, and Germany, the magnitude of which increased from 2009 to 2010, refl ecting various lags associated with fi scal policy. The fourth and the fi fth columns report the massive “bailout” transfers to the banking system in the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom that attempted to stabilize the fi nancial panic. It is noteworthy that the size of

Chinese Outwards Mercantilism – the Art and Practice of Bundling

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) brought to the fore the limits of the Chinese export led-growth strategy and the need for Chinese rebalancing of its international business approaches. Our paper takes stock of what may be the new chapter of Chinese outward-mercantilism, which aims at securing a higher rate of returns on its net foreign asset position, leveraging its success in manufacturing exports, natural resource imports and RMB internationalization. Using micro-level project data and macroeconomic covariates, we find positive association of Chinese trade and financial flows with China’s outward direct investment (ODI). The relationship is stronger for ODI originated from the Chinese state-owned enterprises, and strengthened by the provision of RMB swap-line agreements with China’s trading partners. The evidences support the conjecture that Chinese ODI is bundled to trade and financial linkages with its investment and trading partners.

Does Finance Really Matter for the Participation of SMEs in International Trade? Evidence from 8,080 East Asian Firms

This paper studies factors associated with firm participation in export markets, focusing primarily on firm size and access to credit, based on a survey sample comprising observations of 8,080 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) (with fewer than 100 employees) and non-SME firms in developing East Asian countries across sectors. The main findings suggest the interdependent relationships between export participation, firm size, and access to credit. SMEs participating in export markets tend to gain more access to credit, while potential scale economies (firm sizes) of SMEs are positively associated with participation in export markets. The estimation results also point to the supportive influences of foreign ownership, worker education, and production certification on export participation, and the positive effects of financial certification, managerial experience, and collateral/loan value on access to credit for SMEs.

The People's Republic of China's Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves

In the run-up to the financial crisis, the world economy was characterized by large and growing current account imbalances. Since the onset of the crisis, the People’s Republic of China and the United States have rebalanced. As a share of gross domestic product, their current account imbalances are now less than half their pre-crisis levels. For the People’s Republic of China, the reduction in its current account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 economies over the thirty-year period, 1983–2013, confirm that the relationship between current account balances and economic variables such as performance, structure, wealth, and the exchange rate, changed in important ways after the financial crisis.