Youfeng Ning

The Asian monsoon over the past 640,000 years and ice age terminations

Oxygen isotope records from Chinese caves characterize changes in both the Asian monsoon and global climate. Here, using our new speleothem data, we extend the Chinese record to cover the full uranium/thorium dating range, that is, the past 640,000 years. The record’s length and temporal precision allow us to test the idea that insolation changes caused by the Earth’s precession drove the terminations of each of the last seven ice ages as well as the millennia-long intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall associated with each of the terminations. On the basis of our record’s timing, the terminations are separated by four or five precession cycles, supporting the idea that the ‘100,000-year’ ice age cycle is an average of discrete numbers of precession cycles. Furthermore, the suborbital component of monsoon rainfall variability exhibits power in both the precession and obliquity bands, and is nearly in anti-phase with summer boreal insolation. These observations indicate that insolation, in part, sets the pace of the occurrence of millennial-scale events, including those associated with terminations and ‘unfinished terminations’.

Indian monsoon variability on millennial-orbital timescales

The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) monsoon is critical to billions of people living in the region. Yet, significant debates remain on primary ISM drivers on millennial-orbital timescales. Here, we use speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) data from Bittoo cave, Northern India to reconstruct ISM variability over the past 280,000 years. We find strong coherence between North Indian and Chinese speleothem δ18O records from the East Asian monsoon domain, suggesting that both Asian monsoon subsystems exhibit a coupled response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHSI) without significant temporal lags, supporting the view that the tropical-subtropical monsoon variability is driven directly by precession-induced changes in NHSI. Comparisons of the North Indian record with both Antarctic ice core and sea-surface temperature records from the southern Indian Ocean over the last glacial period do not suggest a dominant role of Southern Hemisphere climate processes in regulating the ISM variability on millennial-orbital timescales.

The climate variability in northern Levant over the past 20,000 years

The Levant constitutes an important region for assessing linkages between climate and societal changes throughout the course of human history. However, large uncertainties remain in our understanding of the regions hydroclimate variability under varying boundary conditions. Here we present a new high-resolution, precisely dated speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and Sr/Ca records, spanning the last 20 ka from Jeita Cave, northern Levant. Our record reveals a higher (lower) precipitation-evaporation (P-E) balance during the Last Glacial Maximum and Bolling interstadial (Heinrich stadial 1). The early-middle Holocene is characterized by a trend toward higher P-E state, culminating between similar to 7 and 6 ka. The middle-late Holocene is characterized by two millennial-length drier periods during 5.3-4.2 and 2.8-1.4 ka. On submillennial time scale, the northern Levant climate variability is dominated by 500 year periodicity. Comparisons with the regional proxy records suggest persistent out-of-phase climate variability between the northern and southern Levant on a wide range of timescales.

Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales

The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia’s hydroclimate variability from Tonnel’naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel’naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

The East Asian summer monsoon variability over the last 145 years inferred from the Shihua Cave record, North China

The precipitation variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has profound societal implications. Here, we use precisely dated and seasonally-resolved stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from Shihua Cave, North China to reconstruct the EASM variability over the last 145 years. Our record shows a remarkable weakening of the EASM strength since the 1880s, which may be causally linked to the warming of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The δ18O record also exhibits a significant ~30-year periodicity, consistent with the instrumental, historical and proxy-based rainfall records from North China, plausibly driven by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Together, these observations imply that ~30-year periodicity is a persistent feature of the EASM, which remains significant with or without anthropogenic forcing. If indeed, the EASM rainfall in North China might decline significantly in the near future, which may affect millions of people in this region.

The Indian monsoon variability and civilization changes in the Indian subcontinent

Speleothem records of Indian monsoon provide climatic context to societal changes in Indian subcontinent over the last 5700 years. The vast Indo-Gangetic Plain in South Asia has been home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, whose fortunes ebbed and flowed with time—plausibly driven in part by shifts in the spatiotemporal patterns of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. We use speleothem oxygen isotope records from North India to reconstruct the monsoon’s variability on socially relevant time scales, allowing us to examine the history of civilization changes in the context of varying hydroclimatic conditions over the past 5700 years. Our data suggest that significant shifts in monsoon rainfall have occurred in concert with changes in the Northern Hemisphere temperatures and the discharges of the Himalayan rivers. The close temporal relationship between these large-scale hydroclimatic changes and the intervals marking the significant sociopolitical developments of the Indus Valley and Vedic civilizations suggests a plausible role of climate change in shaping the important chapters of the history of human civilization in the Indian subcontinent.

A 200-year annually laminated stalagmite record of precipitation seasonality in southeastern China and its linkages to ENSO and PDO

In southeastern China (SEC), the precipitation amount produced by the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is almost equivalent to that during the non-summer monsoon (NSM) period, both of them significantly affecting agriculture and socioeconomy. Here, we present a seasonally-resolved stalagmite δ18O record (δ18Os) for the interval 1810–2009 AD from E’mei cave, Jiangxi Province, SEC. The comparison between δ18Os and instrumental data indicates that the δ18Os variability is primarily controlled by the precipitation seasonality (i.e., the ratio of EASM/NSM precipitation) modulated by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Higher (lower) δ18Os values thereby correspond to lower (higher) EASM/NSM ratios associated with El Niño (La Niña) events. Significant correlations with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indicate that the precipitation seasonality in SEC is remarkably influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions, with lower (higher) EASM/NSM ratios during warm (cold) phases of ENSO/PDO. The progressive increase in δ18Os since 2005 AD may reflect a strengthening of the central Pacific El Niño under continued anthropogenic global warming. The relationship between seasonal precipitation and δ18Os with ENSO/PDO requires further studies.