Youseok Lee

A generalized Bass model for predicting the sales patterns of motion pictures having seasonality and herd behavior

Marketing scholars have expended much effort in developing quantitative models that forecast box office results, but performance has been below their expectations because of the failure to notice behavioral factors, such as herd behavior. Prior studies also have relied on weekly box office data, not daily data, and thus have failed to provide marketers with sufficient insights necessary for making key decisions. This paper offers a box office forecasting model that overcomes these weaknesses: a generalized Bass model (GBM) that reflects both daily seasonality and herd behavior. The daily box office data of 40 movies released in Korea are used for the analysis. In all, three models are compared: a GBM that takes into consideration both herd behavior and seasonality, a GBM considering seasonality only, and an exponential model as a benchmark model. The estimation results show that the proposed model performs better than the others in terms of model fitness and predictability.

Do we always adopt Facebook friends’ eWOM postings? The role of social identity and threat

ABSTRACT In this research, we explore the role of social identity and threats to social identity on consumers’ judgment and behavioural intention about electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) on Facebook. Study 1 shows that sharing social identity with a Facebook friend increases perceptions of usefulness and behavioural intention to adopt eWOM. However, when a threat to social identity is posed, these positive effects are eliminated. Study 2 reveals an opposite condition wherein a threat to social identity results in associative responses to eWOM. When the social identity is perceived as impermeable (vs. permeable), threats that are posed toward the social identity increase perceived eWOM usefulness and adoption intention. eWOM source identification is revealed as an underlying mechanism explaining this relationship. Theoretical and managerial implications of these findings are discussed.

The effects of collaborated character’s image congruence on cosmetic products evaluation: The relative importance of ideal and actual self-image congruence

Abstract Brand collaborations, particularly between characters and cosmetics brands, have become popular, adding more esthetic value and story to products. This paper explores the effects of character collaborations on cosmetic products evaluation, focusing on the collaborated character’s image congruence. The current research reveals that consumers who perceive a collaborated character’s image as congruent with their ideal self-image have more positive product evaluation, and further unveils the mediating effect of the self-improvement motive and the moderating effect of the perception of product usage situation. The findings of this research suggest that brand collaboration with character brands would be beneficial as a long-term strategy.