Ype Wijnia

An Evaluation of the Pugh Controlled Convergence Method

This paper evaluates a method known as Pugh Controlled Convergence and its relationship to recent developments in design theory. Computer executable models are proposed simulating a team of people involved in iterated cycles of evaluation, ideation, and investigation. The models suggest that: 1) convergence of the set of design concepts is facilitated by the selection of a strong datum concept; 2) iterated use of an evaluation matrix can facilitate convergence of expert opinion, especially if used to plan investigations conducted between matrix runs; and 3) ideation stimulated by the Pugh matrices can provide large benefits both by improving the set of alternatives and by facilitating convergence. As a basis of comparison, alternatives to Pugh’s methods were assessed such as using a single summary criterion or using a Borda count. The models we developed suggest that Pugh’s method, under a substantial range of assumptions, results in better design outcomes than those from these alternative procedures.© 2007 ASME

Long term optimization of asset replacement in energy infrastructures

In the western energy distribution systems, the assets are relatively old. Distribution companies expect a large number of assets to fail because they reach their end of life in 10 to 30 years from now. Those failed assets will have to be replaced, which would potentially double the total workload in this 20 year period. Unfortunately, half of the work force is expected to retire in the next 10 years. This combination of trends presents the distribution companies with a number of questions. What is the expected number of assets to fail due to age problems? What would be the cost-optimal preventive replacement strategy for those assets? What is the feasibility of this strategy, given the constraints caused by the employee shortage? What are alternatives to overcome those limitations? We have explored those questions with a System Dynamics model, based on real data from a distribution company. We determined that an increase in the number of failures is to be expected in the coming 10-20 years, even under a cost-optimal replacement strategy. However, because of employee shortages, this cost-optimal strategy cannot be executed with the current Human Resource policies, worsening the problem. Hence, optimal strategies would not only have to define asset replacement programs but also a matching HR policy.

Assessing business continuity risks in IT

Over the past years, IT has grown in importance in business operations. For most companies it has become vital for their functioning, with large losses and the potential for default if the systems fail. This growth was not precisely planned, it occurred in an organic fashion; IT systems have evolved. Because of this evolutionary process, companies might not be aware of the risks that are hidden in their IT systems. This paper presents a model based approach to quantify the risk. This approach builds on the risk process, which sees risks as a chain of causes and effects. For IT systems the phases are causes, resources, processes and consequences. The model allows for large numbers of items. However, for business purposes it is important to keep the numbers low. The approach also allows for ranking within the categories. The approach was applied in Essent Netwerk, a large Dutch energy network manager. The application of the approach led to a review of the current IT fallback scenarios.

A Systems View on Infrastructure Asset Management

This chapter discusses the need for a systems view on asset management. According to this view multiple elements or agents are defined that interact and together determine system behaviour. The chapter illustrates how these methods and tools can be used for infrastructure design.

Towards an Asset Management Reference Model: Basis for a Unified Approach

Asset Management is a concept that has a very wide range of uses and different levels of maturity across diverse industrial sectors and regions. Because of this, there is lots exists a large amount of variation in the concepts and the terminology used. In discussing the concept of asset management, the asset management professionals tend to adhere to their own definitions. This situation is an impediment to bringing the concept further, and can mostly be attributed to the fact that framing an improvement in one specific approach or terminology may render it virtually inapplicable in another context. In other words, quite comparable approaches and concepts have to be invented over and over again. To prevent the chaos and in order to provide the basis for a unified resolution, a system level reference model for translating improvements into other realms would be very helpful. In this paper, the outline of such a reference model is developed.

The Asset Management Process Reference Model for Infrastructures

Asset management is a concept that has a very wide range of use across industrial sectors and regions, often with different levels of maturity. Standards like PAS55-1 and its successor ISO 55001 have been developed as a form of guidance on what should be in place to qualify as an asset manager. However, those standards only prescribe what needs to be in place, not how these requirements should be fulfilled. In part, this is a good thing as the best approach to asset management varies amongst organizations. Yet, in implementing asset management many organizations struggle with the how. This is especially true for infrastructures, as the most difficult part of asset management is dealing with risk and risk is even more important for infrastructures than for other asset bases. The guidelines for application of the standards shed some light, but often not enough. A stronger guideline in the form of a reference model is needed. In this paper we describe a reference model for the asset management system that fulfills the requirement in an infrastructure context. This reference model is the result of some 15 years of developing and implementing asset management in a variety of infrastructures.

Asset Risk Management: Issues in the Design and Use of the Risk Matrix

Within the profession of asset management many practitioners use a risk matrix in order to prioritize attention. As a risk matrix is an expression of the value system, each organization has own version: there is no universal truth. However, in developing such a custom made matrix, many things may go wrong. Wrong in this sense is that the decisions made with the matrix are not generally perceived as being good decisions. This is often due to errors in the design of the matrix, and misconceptions about its use. In this paper, guidelines for the correct design and use of a risk matrix will be presented and report on some common errors found in the asset risk management practice will be given.

The Safety Indicator: Measuring Safety in Gas Distribution Networks

In the Netherlands, the safety of the gas distribution system is a hot issue. The public perception is that the safety of the system is decreasing, whilst the industry thinks that it is business as usual and that neither the number of incidents nor the consequences of incidents are larger than they used to be. Which of the claims is true? To this question there is no objective answer. First of all, no accessible database exists that contains records of all relevant incidents. Secondly, there is no agreed upon method to combine all those incidents into a simple, easy to understand indicator of safety. In this paper first the theoretical framework for such an indicator is explored. Combining this framework with actual incident data will result in a quantitative model. The paper ends with a review of the implementation of the safety indicator in the Netherlands and a short outlook for improvements.

Asset management for infrastructures in fast developing countries

Risk Based Asset Management (RBAM), the rationalization of decision making on physical assets, has been a rising profession for infrastructures in the Netherlands. Many companies report cost reductions and quality improvements it the same time. This makes one wonder whether Asset management could be of any help for fast developing countries, as they seem to struggle with both aspects. To test this, the asset management framework was applied to a specific case, the electricity grid of India. Based on the current understanding of asset management systems, a fast developing electricity infrastructure runs the risk of outages, high losses (technical an commercial), many incidents and perhaps riots over the quality. The electricity grid in India shows all of them to an extent that is hardly imaginable. An explanation (based on the asset management framework) might be found in the focus on hardware. As a result the asset management system is out of balance and prone to failure. One alternative might be a bottom up approach for emergency power, potentially expanded into a village startup kit. Even though it is not the best option in the long run, it is in balance by nature. And as India might be struggling with the reliability for the next 20 years, it is a comforting thought that the backup power would be properly organized.

Application of a Unified Reference Model Across Asset Types: Comparative Cases

Asset Management has grown over the last few years and has begun to use many terminologies and concepts across different applications. This has had notable negative effects on the further growth of the discipline, as the present conditions only contribute to complexity and chaos rather than leading the way toward a commonly acceptable approach. In this context, a common reference model becomes extremely useful that can provide the necessary elements which can be capitalized for learning and development efforts for wider applications. The issue here is to get the principles intact that has comparable and defining features across many contexts. In this respect some initial efforts were invested to develop an approach for a unified asset management reference model. This paper brings further work on this reference model into perspective by discussing the application of the reference model across different asset types. The purpose here is to communicate the potential of such a unified approach as a valuable foundation to build on.